The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15PJ311 # Created Sun Dec 22 02:10:26 2024 # Orbit generated by ELGB # -->Covariance matrix from a Bernstein fit # Fitting 46 observations of 46 # Arc: 3.16y # First observation: 2014/07/27 # Last observation: 2017/09/22 # Chi-squared of fit: 43.40 DOF: 86 RMS: 0.17 # Min/Max residuals: -0.55 0.43 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 4.607184E-05 4.796352E-01 -1.296173E-05 -1.391313E-01 1.652151E-01 -6.399987E-02 # Covariance matrix: 3.6541E-13 -7.5633E-13 -5.9757E-15 6.3809E-14 1.7812E-13 -7.2419E-13 -7.5633E-13 1.6033E-11 1.7349E-13 -1.8511E-12 -5.2550E-12 2.1072E-11 -5.9757E-15 1.7349E-13 3.4894E-13 -2.4258E-13 -6.2891E-14 2.3860E-13 6.3809E-14 -1.8511E-12 -2.4258E-13 7.4769E-13 6.1770E-13 -2.5088E-12 1.7812E-13 -5.2550E-12 -6.2891E-14 6.1770E-13 4.8420E-12 -9.2626E-12 -7.2419E-13 2.1072E-11 2.3860E-13 -2.5088E-12 -9.2626E-12 3.0105E-11 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 -10.934812 -52.699259 0.055565 -0.192775 -0.998140 2456865.928968 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2456866.5000 = 2014/07/28 Mean Anomaly: 356.86899 +/- 0.001 Argument of Peri: 231.31270 +/- 0.000 Long of Asc Node: 97.38074 +/- 0.000 Inclination: 18.55076 +/- 0.000 Eccentricity: 0.66507169 +/- 0.0000 Semi-Major Axis: 20.51883784 +/- 0.0000 Time of Perihelion: 2457161.7631 +/- 0.1 Perihelion: 6.87233959 +/- 0.0000 Aphelion: 34.16533609 +/- 0.0000 Period (y) 92.9474 +/- 0.00 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X 4.17127410 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic Y -5.56786339 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic Z -1.14817347 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic XDOT 0.00542147 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic YDOT 0.00598877 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic ZDOT -0.00206244 +/- 0.0000 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 7.05120588 +/- 0.0000 Geocenter to KBO 6.05277956 +/- 0.0000 # Hcoef: 13.62
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15PJ311. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15PJ311) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2014 07 27.42819 20 51 27.145 -28 59 37.00 21.9G 15PJ311 F51 C~36r0 2014 07 27.44012 20 51 26.894 -28 59 39.14 21.9G 15PJ311 F51 C~36r0 2014 07 27.45201 20 51 26.635 -28 59 41.03 21.8G 15PJ311 F51 C~36r0 2014 07 27.46391 20 51 26.397 -28 59 42.89 22.1G 15PJ311 F51 C~36r0 2015 07 27.55169 23 02 53.587 -25 08 51.58 21.8w 15PJ311 F51 C~1WXD 2015 07 27.56224 23 02 53.474 -25 08 53.85 21.9w 15PJ311 F51 C~1WXD 2015 07 27.57278 23 02 53.376 -25 08 56.30 21.8w 15PJ311 F51 C~1WXD 2015 08 10.50864 22 59 58.058 -25 57 25.54 21.7w 15PJ311 F51 C~1WXD 2015 08 10.51831 22 59 57.907 -25 57 27.55 21.8w 15PJ311 F51 C~1WXD 2015 08 10.52808 22 59 57.770 -25 57 29.67 21.7w 15PJ311 F51 C~1WXD 2015 08 10.53775 22 59 57.601 -25 57 31.30 21.8w 15PJ311 F51 C~1WXD 2015 08 11.51310 22 59 42.539 -26 00 50.20 21.8w 15PJ311 F51 C~1WXD 2015 08 11.52279 22 59 42.369 -26 00 52.06 21.8w 15PJ311 F51 C~1WXD 2015 08 11.53238 22 59 42.223 -26 00 54.15 22.0w 15PJ311 F51 C~1WXD 2015 08 11.54216 22 59 42.059 -26 00 55.77 21.8w 15PJ311 F51 C~1WXD 2015 10 15.26312 22 41 41.579 -27 46 11.22 21.7G 15PJ311 F51 C~36r0 2015 10 15.27372 22 41 41.498 -27 46 11.04 21.7G 15PJ311 F51 C~36r0 2015 10 15.28428 22 41 41.417 -27 46 10.39 22.3G 15PJ311 F51 C~36r0 2015 10 15.29485 22 41 41.319 -27 46 09.74 22.0G 15PJ311 F51 C~36r0 2016 08 01.54595 00 51 23.092 -16 16 59.76 22.5G 15PJ311 F51 C~36r0 2016 08 01.55638 00 51 23.087 -16 17 01.51 22.2G 15PJ311 F51 C~36r0 2016 08 01.56686 00 51 23.089 -16 17 03.31 22.4G 15PJ311 F51 C~36r0 2016 08 01.57728 00 51 23.084 -16 17 04.83 22.3G 15PJ311 F51 C~36r1 2016 09 25.42689 00 41 07.486 -18 49 32.80 22.0G 15PJ311 F51 C~36r1 2016 09 25.43694 00 41 07.276 -18 49 34.01 22.3G 15PJ311 F51 C~36r1 2016 09 25.44704 00 41 07.075 -18 49 35.26 22.0G 15PJ311 F51 C~36r1 2016 09 25.45708 00 41 06.890 -18 49 36.21 22.1G 15PJ311 F51 C~36r1 2016 10 09.40970 00 36 38.962 -19 12 14.87 22.2G 15PJ311 F51 C~36r1 2016 10 09.41035 00 36 38.927 -19 12 15.22 22.2G 15PJ311 F51 C~36r1 2016 10 09.42073 00 36 38.741 -19 12 15.83 22.2G 15PJ311 F51 C~36r1 2016 10 09.42137 00 36 38.711 -19 12 16.01 22.6G 15PJ311 F51 C~36r1 2016 10 09.43172 00 36 38.520 -19 12 16.42 21.9G 15PJ311 F51 C~36r1 2016 10 09.43236 00 36 38.503 -19 12 16.61 22.3G 15PJ311 F51 C~36r1 2016 10 09.44270 00 36 38.315 -19 12 17.34 21.9G 15PJ311 F51 C~36r1 2016 10 09.44334 00 36 38.281 -19 12 17.46 22.7G 15PJ311 F51 C~36r1 2016 10 25.34792 00 31 58.563 -19 21 03.29 22.4G 15PJ311 F51 C~36r1 2016 10 25.36066 00 31 58.347 -19 21 03.16 22.6G 15PJ311 F51 C~36r1 2016 10 25.37344 00 31 58.133 -19 21 03.10 22.5G 15PJ311 F51 C~36r1 2016 10 25.38620 00 31 57.923 -19 21 03.14 22.1G 15PJ311 F51 C~36r1 2016 11 05.31028 00 29 25.234 -19 15 37.18 22.5G 15PJ311 F51 C~36r1 2016 11 05.31838 00 29 25.096 -19 15 36.48 22.3G 15PJ311 F51 C~36r1 2016 11 05.32647 00 29 25.051 -19 15 35.82 22.8G 15PJ311 F51 C~36r1 2017 09 22.46965 02 06 27.000 -08 36 09.26 22.3G 15PJ311 F51 C~36r1 2017 09 22.48207 02 06 26.823 -08 36 10.90 22.8G 15PJ311 F51 C~36r1 2017 09 22.49452 02 06 26.629 -08 36 12.50 22.8G 15PJ311 F51 C~36r1 2017 09 22.50693 02 06 26.413 -08 36 14.26 22.5G 15PJ311 F51 C~36r1
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 -0.01 0.00 -0.08
2 0.0000 0.00 0.03 0.00 -0.24
3 0.0001 0.00 -0.05 0.00 -0.17
4 0.0001 0.00 0.19 0.00 -0.07
5 0.9997 0.00 0.09 0.00 0.15
6 0.9997 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.09
7 0.9997 0.00 0.16 0.00 -0.16
8 1.0379 0.00 -0.13 0.00 0.17
9 1.0379 0.00 -0.08 0.00 0.13
10 1.0379 0.00 0.20 0.00 0.00
11 1.0379 0.00 -0.03 0.00 0.34
12 1.0406 0.00 -0.10 0.00 0.11
13 1.0406 0.00 -0.28 0.00 0.22
14 1.0407 0.00 -0.14 0.00 0.07
15 1.0407 0.00 -0.21 0.00 0.43
16 1.2179 0.00 -0.23 0.00 -0.15
17 1.2179 0.00 -0.02 0.00 -0.43
18 1.2179 0.00 0.18 0.00 -0.24
19 1.2180 0.00 0.13 0.00 -0.05
20 2.0154 0.00 0.10 0.00 0.08
21 2.0154 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00
22 2.0154 0.00 0.05 0.00 -0.12
23 2.0155 0.00 -0.02 0.00 0.02
24 2.1656 0.00 0.20 0.00 -0.06
25 2.1657 0.00 0.01 0.00 -0.02
26 2.1657 0.00 -0.04 0.00 -0.02
27 2.1657 0.00 0.14 0.00 0.27
28 2.2039 0.00 0.23 0.00 0.13
29 2.2039 0.00 -0.11 0.00 -0.17
30 2.2039 0.00 0.13 0.00 -0.07
31 2.2040 0.00 -0.13 0.00 -0.20
32 2.2040 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.10
33 2.2040 0.00 -0.04 0.00 -0.05
34 2.2040 0.00 0.16 0.00 -0.07
35 2.2040 0.00 -0.16 0.00 -0.15
36 2.2476 0.00 0.16 0.00 0.06
37 2.2476 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.14
38 2.2476 0.00 -0.04 0.00 0.15
39 2.2477 0.00 -0.07 0.00 0.06
40 2.2776 0.00 0.06 0.00 -0.26
41 2.2776 0.00 -0.49 0.00 -0.01
42 2.2776 0.00 0.36 0.00 0.20
43 3.1569 0.00 0.23 0.00 -0.04
44 3.1569 0.00 0.25 0.00 -0.04
45 3.1569 0.00 0.02 0.00 -0.00
46 3.1570 0.00 -0.55 0.00 -0.13
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15PJ311 quality flag:3 Type: CENTAURR CENTAURR CENTAURR axisobj 20.560 20.559 20.560 ecceobj 0.668 0.668 0.668 incobj 18.539 18.539 18.539 qmin 6.833 6.813 6.826 qmax 38.117 35.247 39.178 amean 21.142 18.582 21.633 amin 19.747 15.864 20.453 amax 22.652 21.124 23.068 emean 0.666 0.623 0.679 emin 0.649 0.559 0.657 emax 0.683 0.669 0.698 imean 17.593 17.983 17.634 imin 16.988 16.988 16.988 imax 18.022 19.197 18.011 excite_mean 0.732 0.695 0.743 fracstop 0.002 0.002 0.001 cjmean 2.615 2.793 2.578 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 240.7 255.9 240.2 kozaiamp 10.1 30.7 8.2