The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15PK312 # Created Wed Nov 27 02:10:22 2024 # Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism # Fitting 12 observations of 12 # Arc: 61.98d # First observation: 2015/08/15 # Last observation: 2015/10/16 Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 0.000003 0.046287 0.000010 -0.011418 0.032943 0.000000 # Chi-squared of fit: 6.55 DOF: 18 RMS: 0.13 # Min/Max residuals: -0.17 0.36 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 2.217766E-05 4.489010E-02 -4.748729E-06 -1.131360E-02 3.220891E-02 3.529913E-03 # Covariance matrix: 2.4164E-13 -2.2325E-11 5.4845E-15 -6.9684E-12 -2.9555E-12 3.8564E-10 -2.2325E-11 1.0636E-08 2.4960E-11 1.9905E-09 2.9200E-09 1.7832E-07 5.4845E-15 2.4960E-11 2.6670E-13 2.2859E-13 9.9763E-12 1.2190E-09 -6.9684E-12 1.9905E-09 2.2859E-13 6.0753E-10 3.8182E-10 -9.7987E-09 -2.9555E-12 2.9200E-09 9.9763E-12 3.8182E-10 9.6615E-10 9.0631E-08 3.8564E-10 1.7832E-07 1.2190E-09 -9.7987E-09 9.0631E-08 1.3715E-05 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 -18.606602 31.944264 0.953201 -0.111518 -0.331732 2457249.809747 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2457240.5000 = 2015/08/06 Mean Anomaly: 1.04162 +/- 1.837 Argument of Peri: 226.05756 +/- 11.391 Long of Asc Node: 159.95144 +/- 0.127 Inclination: 23.41839 +/- 0.039 Eccentricity: 0.64962761 +/- 0.0226 Semi-Major Axis: 89.36459363 +/- 4.8999 Time of Perihelion: 2456347.7010 +/- 1572.6 Perihelion: 31.31088647 +/- 2.6520 Aphelion: 147.41830078 +/- 8.3319 Period (y) 844.8049 +/- 69.48 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X 25.76594034 +/- 0.0241 Ecliptic Y 14.94473177 +/- 0.0150 Ecliptic Z -9.90636037 +/- 0.0096 Ecliptic XDOT -0.00204001 +/- 0.0003 Ecliptic YDOT 0.00321969 +/- 0.0002 Ecliptic ZDOT -0.00100710 +/- 0.0001 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 31.39051872 +/- 0.0212 Geocenter to KBO 31.04731226 +/- 0.0300 # Hcoef: 9.80
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15PK312. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15PK312) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2015 08 15.308958 02 24 30.02 -05 21 08.1 24.4r 15PK312 W84 C~1l4o 2015 08 15.324329 02 24 30.00 -05 21 08.4 24.9i 15PK312 W84 C~1l4o 2015 08 15.328819 02 24 30.01 -05 21 08.8 24.9i 15PK312 W84 C~1l4o 2015 08 15.333310 02 24 30.04 -05 21 08.9 24.7i 15PK312 W84 C~1l4o 2015 08 15.337801 02 24 30.02 -05 21 09.3 24.6i 15PK312 W84 C~1l4o 2015 08 19.354317 02 24 29.05 -05 24 03.9 24.4r 15PK312 W84 C~1l4o 2015 08 19.359282 02 24 29.04 -05 24 04.1 24.6r 15PK312 W84 C~1l4o 2015 08 19.364248 02 24 29.03 -05 24 04.2 25.5r 15PK312 W84 C~1l4o 2015 08 19.379074 02 24 29.03 -05 24 05.1 24.9i 15PK312 W84 C~1l4o 2015 08 23.334178 02 24 26.23 -05 27 03.4 24.6r 15PK312 W84 C~1l4o 2015 08 23.362836 02 24 26.21 -05 27 04.9 24.6i 15PK312 W84 C~1l4o 2015 10 16.289514 02 21 15.61 -06 10 01.5 24.4z 15PK312 W84 C~1l4o
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 -0.03 0.00 -0.17
2 0.0000 -0.38 -0.17 -0.18 0.26
3 0.0001 -0.38 -0.09 -0.61 0.01
4 0.0001 0.01 0.36 -0.85 -0.05
5 0.0001 -0.41 0.02 -1.13 -0.15
6 0.0111 -73.23 0.04 -160.48 0.01
7 0.0111 -73.44 -0.05 -160.62 0.06
8 0.0111 -73.61 -0.11 -160.66 0.21
9 0.0111 -73.91 -0.07 -161.51 -0.06
10 0.0220 -173.69 0.01 -315.07 0.05
11 0.0221 -174.48 0.09 -316.38 -0.17
12 0.1697 -3723.32 -0.00 -1778.88 0.00
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15PK312 quality flag:0 Type: ERR2LARGE ERR2LARGE ERR2LARGE axisobj 0.000 0.000 0.000 ecceobj -1.000 -1.000 -1.000 incobj -1.000 -1.000 -1.000 qmin 0.000 0.000 0.000 qmax 0.000 0.000 0.000 amean 0.000 0.000 0.000 amin 0.000 0.000 0.000 amax 0.000 0.000 0.000 emean 0.000 0.000 0.000 emin 0.000 0.000 0.000 emax 0.000 0.000 0.000 imean 0.000 0.000 0.000 imin 0.000 0.000 0.000 imax 0.000 0.000 0.000 excite_mean 0.000 0.000 0.000 fracstop 0.000 0.000 0.000 cjmean 0.000 0.000 0.000 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 0.0 0.0 0.0 kozaiamp 0.0 0.0 0.0