The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15PL312 # Created Fri Nov 22 02:10:25 2024 # Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism # Fitting 30 observations of 31 # Arc: 4.17y # First observation: 2014/09/30 # Last observation: 2018/12/01 Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: -0.000310 0.027707 -0.000147 0.010791 0.027020 0.000000 # Chi-squared of fit: 19.34 DOF: 54 RMS: 0.14 # Min/Max residuals: -0.42 0.32 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 1.473884E-05 2.745850E-02 8.210651E-06 1.066146E-02 2.732502E-02 -2.158016E-03 # Covariance matrix: 6.6978E-13 -6.7926E-13 2.0274E-13 -2.4574E-13 -2.9141E-13 -5.5556E-12 -6.7926E-13 8.2085E-13 -2.7045E-13 3.2891E-13 3.6467E-13 7.4442E-12 2.0274E-13 -2.7045E-13 3.3573E-13 -2.2625E-13 -1.2189E-13 -2.6716E-12 -2.4574E-13 3.2891E-13 -2.2625E-13 2.0600E-13 1.3779E-13 3.2749E-12 -2.9141E-13 3.6467E-13 -1.2189E-13 1.3779E-13 3.9260E-13 3.0387E-12 -5.5556E-12 7.4442E-12 -2.6716E-12 3.2749E-12 3.0387E-12 7.4319E-11 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 -16.210673 37.213553 0.508972 -0.241389 -0.830881 2456930.782118 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2456930.5000 = 2014/09/30 Mean Anomaly: 326.41196 +/- 0.076 Argument of Peri: 5.27965 +/- 0.109 Long of Asc Node: 71.78968 +/- 0.001 Inclination: 26.10485 +/- 0.000 Eccentricity: 0.13659178 +/- 0.0002 Semi-Major Axis: 41.91378790 +/- 0.0037 Time of Perihelion: 2466177.8212 +/- 20.9 Perihelion: 36.18870890 +/- 0.0090 Aphelion: 47.63886690 +/- 0.0095 Period (y) 271.3586 +/- 0.04 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X 28.98039366 +/- 0.0006 Ecliptic Y 21.37286678 +/- 0.0005 Ecliptic Z -10.21639174 +/- 0.0002 Ecliptic XDOT -0.00159637 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic YDOT 0.00224120 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic ZDOT 0.00108624 +/- 0.0000 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 37.43043295 +/- 0.0006 Geocenter to KBO 36.59649373 +/- 0.0008 # Hcoef: 8.21
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15PL312. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15PL312) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2014 09 30.28134 02 40 23.060 -01 26 23.46 23.6i 15PL312 W84 C~4yYA 2015 08 15.393889 02 47 17.60 -00 02 00.6 23.5i 15PL312 W84 C~2B02 2015 08 24.361215 02 47 13.25 -00 05 10.1 24.8r 15PL312 W84 C~2B02 2015 08 24.363588 02 47 13.25 -00 05 10.2 23.8i 15PL312 W84 C~2B02 2015 08 24.367593 02 47 13.24 -00 05 10.6 23.3z 15PL312 W84 C~2B02 2015 09 12.310602 02 46 38.28 -00 13 09.2 24.4r 15PL312 W84 C~2B02 2015 09 12.316910 02 46 38.27 -00 13 09.6 23.5z 15PL312 W84 C~2B02 2015 10 16.294670 02 44 22.88 -00 28 40.2 24.8g 15PL312 W84 C~2B02 2015 10 16.296875 02 44 22.87 -00 28 40.1 23.4r 15PL312 W84 C~2B02 2015 10 16.299225 02 44 22.84 -00 28 40.2 23.7i 15PL312 W84 C~2B02 2015 10 16.303206 02 44 22.83 -00 28 40.1 23.7z 15PL312 W84 C~2B02 2015 11 03.178229 02 42 49.31 -00 35 18.4 23.3z 15PL312 W84 C~2B02 2015 12 11.18032 02 39 38.986 -00 40 28.84 24.0r 15PL312 W84 C~4yYA 2016 08 26.293206 02 52 20.15 +00 58 05.4 24.4r 15PL312 W84 C~2B02 2016 09 24.27915 02 51 09.737 +00 45 52.35 23.7r 15PL312 W84 C~4yYA 2016 09 27.44396 02 50 57.75 +00 44 26.4 24.8g 15PL312 568 C~2NNK 2016 09 27.56353 02 50 57.27 +00 44 23.1 24.8g 15PL312 568 C~2NNK 2016 09 28.45298 02 50 53.77 +00 43 59.0 24.9g 15PL312 568 C~2NNK 2016 09 28.57265 02 50 53.29 +00 43 55.7 24.9g 15PL312 568 C~2NNK 2016 09 29.52511 02 50 49.47 +00 43 30.0 24.9g 15PL312 568 C~2NNK 2016 09 29.58445 02 50 49.22 +00 43 28.4 24.6g 15PL312 568 C~2NNK 2016 10 05.184826 02 50 25.49 +00 40 58.9 23.3z 15PL312 W84 C~2B02 2016 10 27.117662 02 48 37.26 +00 32 03.8 23.1i 15PL312 W84 C~2B02 2016 10 27.124282 02 48 37.25 +00 32 04.1 23.1z 15PL312 W84 C~2B02 2016 10 28.22438 02 48 31.349 +00 31 40.28 23.7r 15PL312 W84 C~4yYA 2016 12 05.19069 02 45 13.842 +00 24 16.28 23.8r 15PL312 W84 C~4yYA 2017 08 27.40776 02 57 30.192 +02 02 16.20 24.1r 15PL312 W84 C~4yYA 2017 09 26.32426 02 56 17.181 +01 50 15.01 23.3r 15PL312 W84 C~4yYA 2017 11 22.17031 02 51 33.668 +01 30 47.76 23.0i 15PL312 W84 C~4yYA 2017 11 22.17167 02 51 33.669 +01 30 47.65 23.8r 15PL312 W84 C~4yYA 2018 12 01.16142 02 56 05.081 +02 35 24.40 23.9r 15PL312 W84 C~4yYA
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 0.24 0.00 -0.42
2 0.8737 7505.86 -0.07 2831.24 0.13
3 0.8982 7383.65 -0.02 2672.07 0.06
4 0.8982 7383.62 -0.00 2671.98 0.01
5 0.8983 7383.35 -0.18 2671.65 -0.26
6 0.9501 6733.33 -0.08 2383.79 0.32
7 0.9501 6733.06 -0.04 2383.46 0.06
8 1.0432 4510.09 -0.02 2144.67 -0.02
9 1.0432 4509.98 0.04 2144.82 0.12
10 1.0432 4509.52 -0.23 2144.86 0.17
11 1.0432 4509.41 -0.02 2145.01 0.31
12 1.0921 3052.20 -0.12 2211.97 0.01
13 1.1962 245.89 0.18 2822.30 0.02
14 1.9056 12968.99 0.25 4817.31 0.22
15 1.9849 11729.98 0.17 4455.34 -0.04
16 1.9936 11531.53 0.04 4430.67 -0.06
17 1.9939 11523.63 -0.00 4429.82 -0.12
18 1.9964 11466.00 -0.05 4423.57 -0.14
19 1.9967 11458.10 0.03 4422.72 -0.24
20 1.9993 11395.40 0.06 4416.46 -0.21
21 1.9995 11391.32 0.01 4416.13 -0.19
22 2.0148 11005.12 0.05 4386.96 0.24
23 2.0748 9291.33 -0.06 4393.46 0.02
24 2.0749 9291.29 ( 0.45) 4393.79 ( 0.31)
25 2.0779 9199.59 -0.20 4399.24 -0.08
26 2.1818 6244.46 0.05 4916.99 -0.04
27 2.9079 18636.66 0.04 7011.29 -0.06
28 2.9899 17359.27 -0.02 6670.22 0.03
29 3.1455 12931.57 -0.01 6905.19 0.17
30 3.1455 12931.55 0.08 6905.08 0.03
31 4.1694 18054.55 -0.09 9312.56 -0.04
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15PL312 quality flag:3 Type: SCATEXTD SCATEXTD SCATEXTD axisobj 42.244 42.254 42.235 ecceobj 0.140 0.140 0.139 incobj 26.088 26.088 26.088 qmin 35.060 35.024 35.127 qmax 49.133 49.343 49.114 amean 41.945 41.976 41.921 amin 41.597 41.612 41.580 amax 42.326 42.375 42.335 emean 0.144 0.145 0.143 emin 0.126 0.128 0.127 emax 0.162 0.165 0.161 imean 24.490 24.481 24.496 imin 23.976 23.983 24.013 imax 25.046 25.031 25.069 excite_mean 0.439 0.439 0.439 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 2.844 2.844 2.844 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 178.5 178.0 175.1 kozaiamp 180.0 179.9 179.9