The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15QY33 # Created Sun Dec 22 02:10:26 2024 # Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism # Fitting 10 observations of 10 # Arc: 2.77y # First observation: 2014/12/20 # Last observation: 2017/09/26 Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: -0.000221 0.020861 0.000072 -0.007881 0.023673 0.000000 # Chi-squared of fit: 2.53 DOF: 14 RMS: 0.09 # Min/Max residuals: -0.14 0.18 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 1.425076E-05 2.052925E-02 -5.166495E-06 -7.756181E-03 2.312502E-02 3.002917E-04 # Covariance matrix: 1.2111E-12 -1.1348E-12 -2.5550E-13 3.2642E-13 -5.6749E-13 -1.1267E-11 -1.1348E-12 1.6926E-12 3.2242E-13 -5.6696E-13 4.2931E-13 1.8642E-11 -2.5550E-13 3.2242E-13 5.4221E-13 -3.5074E-13 1.8190E-13 4.0165E-12 3.2642E-13 -5.6696E-13 -3.5074E-13 3.8679E-13 -1.4578E-13 -6.9531E-12 -5.6749E-13 4.2931E-13 1.8190E-13 -1.4578E-13 5.6426E-13 5.5507E-12 -1.1267E-11 1.8642E-11 4.0165E-12 -6.9531E-12 5.5507E-12 2.2910E-10 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 -26.441330 7.214607 -0.969733 -0.071784 -0.144800 2457011.618298 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2457010.5000 = 2014/12/19 Mean Anomaly: 109.36192 +/- 0.538 Argument of Peri: 122.10185 +/- 0.527 Long of Asc Node: 138.23581 +/- 0.002 Inclination: 32.72048 +/- 0.001 Eccentricity: 0.03478380 +/- 0.0006 Semi-Major Axis: 42.85685057 +/- 0.0060 Time of Perihelion: 2425879.5466 +/- 153.0 Perihelion: 41.36612660 +/- 0.0268 Aphelion: 44.34757454 +/- 0.0269 Period (y) 280.5683 +/- 0.06 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X 38.44860062 +/- 0.0012 Ecliptic Y 5.84651052 +/- 0.0002 Ecliptic Z -19.25565333 +/- 0.0006 Ecliptic XDOT -0.00068337 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic YDOT 0.00235877 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic ZDOT -0.00083795 +/- 0.0000 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 43.39650631 +/- 0.0011 Geocenter to KBO 43.24320854 +/- 0.0014 # Hcoef: 7.32
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15QY33. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15QY33) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2014 12 20.11752 01 10 02.983 -21 20 03.27 23.5r 15QY33 W84 C~55Wd 2015 08 24.38998 01 22 36.010 -20 42 02.71 23.7r 15QY33 W84 C~55Wd 2015 08 24.39272 01 22 35.998 -20 42 03.04 24.5g 15QY33 W84 C~55Wd 2015 10 07.22783 01 19 49.894 -21 12 05.59 23.5i 15QY33 W84 C~55Wd 2015 11 06.10918 01 17 34.136 -21 22 02.94 23.5i 15QY33 W84 C~55Wd 2015 11 06.11056 01 17 34.134 -21 22 02.92 23.1r 15QY33 W84 C~55Wd 2016 11 05.26588 01 23 00.028 -21 15 06.09 23.5i 15QY33 W84 C~55Wd 2016 12 21.11576 01 20 44.275 -21 06 48.80 23.7r 15QY33 W84 C~55Wd 2017 09 26.26297 01 31 27.285 -20 50 52.00 24.3r 15QY33 W84 C~55Wd 2017 09 26.26574 01 31 27.274 -20 50 52.00 23.8g 15QY33 W84 C~55Wd
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 -0.04 0.00 -0.03
2 0.6770 10502.22 0.01 -2507.23 0.02
3 0.6770 10501.92 -0.14 -2507.45 -0.13
4 0.7970 7613.95 0.18 -3103.73 0.14
5 0.8788 5643.58 -0.03 -2813.26 -0.01
6 0.8788 5643.57 0.03 -2813.23 -0.01
7 1.8786 9927.13 0.13 -4437.87 -0.07
8 2.0041 8437.92 -0.10 -3152.68 0.15
9 2.7684 16961.45 -0.05 -6330.96 -0.08
10 2.7684 16961.32 0.01 -6330.89 0.01
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15QY33 quality flag:2 Type: SCATEXTD SCATEXTD 5:3II axisobj 43.205 43.225 43.186 ecceobj 0.034 0.035 0.033 incobj 32.654 32.655 32.654 qmin 40.839 40.813 40.849 qmax 45.269 45.368 45.215 amean 42.976 42.995 42.956 amin 42.649 42.673 42.632 amax 43.297 43.321 43.289 emean 0.035 0.036 0.034 emin 0.025 0.026 0.025 emax 0.046 0.047 0.045 imean 31.378 31.378 31.378 imin 31.133 31.131 31.132 imax 31.638 31.638 31.633 excite_mean 0.522 0.522 0.522 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 2.740 2.740 2.740 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 178.4 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 172.1 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 179.9 180.2 180.0 kozaiamp 180.0 179.9 180.0