The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15RA281
# Created Sun Nov 24 02:10:26 2024
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting 27 observations of 27
# Arc: 2.19y
# First observation: 2015/07/14
# Last observation: 2017/09/22
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
-0.000096 0.024502 0.000003 0.003745 0.024654 0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit: 8.68 DOF: 48 RMS: 0.10
# Min/Max residuals: -0.33 0.21
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
1.719343E-05 2.408478E-02 2.994380E-06 3.698442E-03 2.442206E-02 -1.615451E-04
# Covariance matrix:
2.2162E-13 3.9681E-14 -8.5471E-15 2.2659E-14 1.9190E-13 2.9209E-12
3.9681E-14 3.9416E-13 -2.0689E-14 7.4401E-14 2.9032E-13 9.6126E-12
-8.5471E-15 -2.0689E-14 1.0795E-13 -8.4444E-14 -2.1342E-14 -7.2211E-13
2.2659E-14 7.4401E-14 -8.4444E-14 1.3794E-13 6.8258E-14 2.7452E-12
1.9190E-13 2.9032E-13 -2.1342E-14 6.8258E-14 3.7510E-13 8.8120E-12
2.9209E-12 9.6126E-12 -7.2211E-13 2.7452E-12 8.8120E-12 3.5480E-10
# lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0
2.399527 10.230078 0.996787 0.008670 -0.204385 2457218.109039
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch: 2457210.5000 = 2015/07/07
Mean Anomaly: 318.44976 +/- 0.632
Argument of Peri: 60.41864 +/- 0.719
Long of Asc Node: 353.80678 +/- 0.001
Inclination: 9.12976 +/- 0.001
Eccentricity: 0.04632228 +/- 0.0006
Semi-Major Axis: 42.59445766 +/- 0.0034
Time of Perihelion: 2468929.7301 +/- 178.4
Perihelion: 40.62138541 +/- 0.0237
Aphelion: 44.56752991 +/- 0.0238
Period (y) 277.9955 +/- 0.03
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X 40.63506329 +/- 0.0010
Ecliptic Y 6.32159202 +/- 0.0002
Ecliptic Z 1.71449724 +/- 0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT -0.00051670 +/- 0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT 0.00264454 +/- 0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT 0.00041356 +/- 0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO 41.15957233 +/- 0.0010
Geocenter to KBO 40.94658660 +/- 0.0010
# Hcoef: 8.67
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15RA281. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15RA281) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2015 07 14.60825 00 33 49.098 +06 15 26.88 25.3r 15RA281 568 C~2nvs 2015 07 19.58735 00 33 46.238 +06 15 38.74 24.7r 15RA281 568 C~2nvs 2015 07 19.59146 00 33 46.229 +06 15 38.79 25.1r 15RA281 568 C~2nvs 2015 08 20.47055 00 32 40.155 +06 11 35.71 24.5r 15RA281 568 C~2nvs 2015 09 07.56844 00 31 32.702 +06 05 46.49 25.0w 15RA281 568 C~2nvs 2015 09 09.39585 00 31 25.048 +06 05 04.71 24.4r 15RA281 568 C~2nvs 2015 09 09.43729 00 31 24.857 +06 05 03.85 24.5r 15RA281 568 C~2nvs 2015 09 09.47825 00 31 24.691 +06 05 02.89 25.1r 15RA281 568 C~2nvs 2015 09 10.50253 00 31 20.337 +06 04 38.96 24.9w 15RA281 568 C~2nvs 2015 09 18.46210 00 30 45.414 +06 01 23.68 25.0w 15RA281 568 C~2nvs 2015 10 08.34986 00 29 13.889 +05 52 28.32 24.8w 15RA281 568 C~2nvs 2015 10 08.40249 00 29 13.637 +05 52 27.07 25.2w 15RA281 568 C~2nvs 2015 10 09.31945 00 29 09.413 +05 52 01.52 25.1w 15RA281 568 C~2nvs 2015 11 10.47307 00 26 57.612 +05 38 16.90 25.0w 15RA281 568 C~2nvs 2015 11 15.26831 00 26 42.379 +05 36 36.42 25.0w 15RA281 568 C~2nvs 2015 12 08.24411 00 25 53.400 +05 30 54.90 25.0w 15RA281 568 C~2nvs 2016 01 01.30664 00 25 51.924 +05 30 02.90 25.3w 15RA281 568 C~2nvs 2016 09 05.49449 00 36 28.766 +06 51 15.88 24.8w 15RA281 568 C~2nvs 2016 09 06.44869 00 36 24.893 +06 50 55.17 24.9w 15RA281 568 C~2nvs 2016 09 26.44752 00 34 56.589 +06 42 43.71 25.2w 15RA281 568 C~2nvs 2016 11 03.40304 00 32 09.327 +06 25 45.25 25.3w 15RA281 568 C~2nvs 2016 11 03.46810 00 32 09.086 +06 25 43.48 25.6w 15RA281 568 C~2nvs 2016 12 25.26033 00 30 30.885 +06 14 00.35 24.9w 15RA281 568 C~2nvs 2017 01 02.30275 00 30 36.789 +06 14 20.31 25.1w 15RA281 568 C~2nvs 2017 01 29.24980 00 31 39.268 +06 20 06.83 24.4w 15RA281 568 C~2nvs 2017 09 16.50931 00 40 35.092 +07 32 03.84 25.0w 15RA281 568 C~2nvs 2017 09 22.46275 00 40 08.355 +07 29 35.41 25.0w 15RA281 568 C~2nvs
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 -0.33 0.00 -0.12
2 0.0136 -34.53 0.12 27.70 -0.15
3 0.0136 -34.63 0.07 27.79 -0.07
4 0.1009 -1035.97 0.16 192.64 -0.01
5 0.1505 -2098.19 0.12 268.65 -0.05
6 0.1555 -2219.59 0.02 275.34 0.00
7 0.1556 -2222.54 -0.12 275.68 0.17
8 0.1557 -2225.20 0.02 275.77 0.09
9 0.1585 -2294.32 -0.00 279.43 0.06
10 0.1803 -2850.11 0.05 305.80 0.01
11 0.2347 -4316.45 0.04 354.05 -0.10
12 0.2349 -4320.40 0.05 354.39 0.12
13 0.2374 -4388.42 -0.20 355.87 0.03
14 0.3254 -6522.73 -0.05 378.17 0.07
15 0.3386 -6771.59 -0.08 376.15 0.02
16 0.4015 -7579.28 0.06 352.92 -0.04
17 0.4673 -7620.21 0.07 313.92 0.06
18 1.1468 3032.93 -0.12 1040.43 0.05
19 1.1495 2971.74 0.12 1044.03 -0.08
20 1.2042 1568.93 -0.00 1108.91 0.08
21 1.3081 -1123.26 -0.04 1154.61 0.03
22 1.3083 -1127.26 0.03 1154.40 -0.19
23 1.4501 -2750.14 -0.11 1086.59 -0.04
24 1.4721 -2661.37 0.21 1070.13 -0.03
25 1.5459 -1668.57 -0.13 1020.50 0.09
26 2.1763 7367.64 -0.02 1858.19 0.02
27 2.1926 6943.11 0.03 1876.83 -0.01
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15RA281 quality flag:3 Type: CLASSICAL CLASSICAL CLASSICAL axisobj 43.018 43.026 43.010 ecceobj 0.053 0.053 0.053 incobj 9.087 9.087 9.087 qmin 39.792 39.812 39.807 qmax 45.993 45.922 45.941 amean 42.787 42.795 42.779 amin 42.455 42.469 42.450 amax 43.127 43.135 43.120 emean 0.049 0.049 0.049 emin 0.032 0.032 0.032 emax 0.067 0.066 0.066 imean 9.222 9.226 9.220 imin 8.429 8.430 8.425 imax 10.049 10.050 10.053 excite_mean 0.168 0.168 0.168 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 3.054 3.054 3.054 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 176.6 176.7 176.8 kozaiamp 179.9 180.0 179.9