The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15RD281
# Created Sun Dec 22 02:10:30 2024
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting 29 observations of 29
# Arc: 2.09y
# First observation: 2015/08/20
# Last observation: 2017/09/22
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
-0.000071 0.026156 0.000005 -0.008119 0.026178 0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit: 12.39 DOF: 52 RMS: 0.12
# Min/Max residuals: -0.24 0.38
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
1.554415E-05 2.616658E-02 -4.425163E-06 -8.163805E-03 2.639700E-02 2.977291E-03
# Covariance matrix:
1.7358E-13 -2.0482E-14 3.7970E-15 -2.3159E-14 1.3046E-13 1.7034E-12
-2.0482E-14 4.0351E-13 2.1638E-14 -1.2499E-13 2.7690E-13 9.0373E-12
3.7970E-15 2.1638E-14 1.1887E-13 -1.0112E-13 1.8888E-14 7.2810E-13
-2.3159E-14 -1.2499E-13 -1.0112E-13 1.8313E-13 -1.1102E-13 -4.1873E-12
1.3046E-13 2.7690E-13 1.8888E-14 -1.1102E-13 3.6963E-13 8.0722E-12
1.7034E-12 9.0373E-12 7.2810E-13 -4.1873E-12 8.0722E-12 3.0231E-10
# lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0
3.032791 10.909540 0.703418 0.038806 -0.730187 2457254.931009
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch: 2457250.5000 = 2015/08/16
Mean Anomaly: 49.93230 +/- 0.105
Argument of Peri: 109.63481 +/- 0.168
Long of Asc Node: 199.34430 +/- 0.000
Inclination: 17.51442 +/- 0.001
Eccentricity: 0.10965753 +/- 0.0006
Semi-Major Axis: 41.20095748 +/- 0.0057
Time of Perihelion: 2443852.5459 +/- 28.0
Perihelion: 36.68296229 +/- 0.0247
Aphelion: 45.71895268 +/- 0.0250
Period (y) 264.4656 +/- 0.06
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X 37.99382287 +/- 0.0009
Ecliptic Y 6.60741816 +/- 0.0002
Ecliptic Z 2.00416684 +/- 0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT -0.00016885 +/- 0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT 0.00272537 +/- 0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT -0.00082916 +/- 0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO 38.61612662 +/- 0.0008
Geocenter to KBO 37.88308712 +/- 0.0009
# Hcoef: 9.31
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15RD281. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15RD281) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2015 08 20.43022 00 35 19.609 +07 06 24.45 25.5r 15RD281 568 C~2nvs 2015 08 20.47949 00 35 19.463 +07 06 23.70 25.4r 15RD281 568 C~2nvs 2015 09 07.57672 00 34 11.405 +06 58 33.00 25.6w 15RD281 568 C~2nvs 2015 09 09.40442 00 34 03.630 +06 57 38.14 25.1r 15RD281 568 C~2nvs 2015 09 09.44553 00 34 03.441 +06 57 36.90 24.7r 15RD281 568 C~2nvs 2015 09 09.48644 00 34 03.267 +06 57 35.63 25.3r 15RD281 568 C~2nvs 2015 09 10.51074 00 33 58.825 +06 57 04.48 25.4w 15RD281 568 C~2nvs 2015 09 18.47260 00 33 23.148 +06 52 50.06 25.9w 15RD281 568 C~2nvs 2015 10 08.36042 00 31 49.128 +06 41 17.47 25.0w 15RD281 568 C~2nvs 2015 10 08.41303 00 31 48.875 +06 41 15.28 25.5w 15RD281 568 C~2nvs 2015 10 09.33000 00 31 44.538 +06 40 42.42 25.2w 15RD281 568 C~2nvs 2015 12 08.25463 00 28 24.059 +06 11 19.55 25.4w 15RD281 568 C~2nvs 2016 01 01.31705 00 28 25.376 +06 07 31.56 26.0w 15RD281 568 C~2nvs 2016 01 02.26815 00 28 26.626 +06 07 30.16 25.4w 15RD281 568 C~2nvs 2016 09 05.49045 00 40 34.842 +07 08 40.17 25.3w 15RD281 568 C~2nvs 2016 09 05.50664 00 40 34.782 +07 08 40.10 25.1w 15RD281 568 C~2nvs 2016 09 06.44465 00 40 30.929 +07 08 12.58 25.4w 15RD281 568 C~2nvs 2016 09 06.46082 00 40 30.868 +07 08 12.08 25.3w 15RD281 568 C~2nvs 2016 09 06.48592 00 40 30.775 +07 08 11.30 25.6w 15RD281 568 C~2nvs 2016 09 06.50211 00 40 30.698 +07 08 10.77 26.1w 15RD281 568 C~2nvs 2016 09 26.44346 00 39 01.201 +06 57 29.24 25.3w 15RD281 568 C~2nvs 2016 11 04.27703 00 36 05.843 +06 35 02.17 15RD281 568 C~2nvs 2016 11 04.33644 00 36 05.604 +06 35 00.34 15RD281 568 C~2nvs 2016 12 29.24794 00 34 32.024 +06 17 15.47 25.2w 15RD281 568 C~2nvs 2016 12 29.27436 00 34 32.040 +06 17 15.50 25.0w 15RD281 568 C~2nvs 2017 01 03.21812 00 34 37.482 +06 17 05.29 25.0w 15RD281 568 C~2nvs 2017 01 03.24627 00 34 37.518 +06 17 05.33 25.5w 15RD281 568 C~2nvs 2017 09 15.43089 00 46 09.899 +07 12 54.19 25.3w 15RD281 568 C~2nvt 2017 09 22.49605 00 45 37.911 +07 09 04.42 25.1w 15RD281 568 C~2nvt
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 0.03 0.00 -0.10
2 0.0001 -2.29 0.38 0.17 0.10
3 0.0497 -1118.97 -0.13 -33.40 -0.06
4 0.0547 -1246.99 -0.02 -38.18 -0.07
5 0.0548 -1250.07 -0.14 -38.21 -0.02
6 0.0549 -1252.95 -0.07 -38.36 -0.08
7 0.0577 -1326.01 -0.10 -40.91 0.10
8 0.0795 -1914.59 0.08 -65.17 0.01
9 0.1340 -3474.98 0.11 -148.40 0.18
10 0.1341 -3479.30 0.01 -148.92 -0.11
11 0.1366 -3551.67 0.01 -153.56 -0.06
12 0.3007 -6996.10 0.14 -588.87 -0.11
13 0.3666 -7068.64 -0.23 -806.06 0.08
14 0.3692 -7052.06 -0.03 -814.75 0.05
15 1.0460 4369.84 -0.24 -1716.14 0.03
16 1.0461 4368.99 0.02 -1715.86 0.35
17 1.0486 4305.42 -0.09 -1718.76 0.06
18 1.0487 4304.39 -0.00 -1718.87 -0.01
19 1.0487 4302.81 0.16 -1719.04 -0.13
20 1.0488 4301.54 0.02 -1719.08 -0.13
21 1.1034 2823.93 -0.11 -1787.84 0.05
22 1.2097 -107.51 0.08 -2001.45 -0.07
23 1.2099 -111.50 0.04 -2001.73 0.02
24 1.3602 -1813.06 0.03 -2431.70 -0.02
25 1.3603 -1812.83 0.02 -2431.77 0.12
26 1.3738 -1742.27 -0.01 -2473.12 -0.08
27 1.3739 -1741.76 0.02 -2473.29 -0.04
28 2.0726 9067.17 -0.14 -3427.09 0.02
29 2.0919 8538.22 0.18 -3453.81 -0.10
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15RD281 quality flag:3 Type: SCATEXTD SCATEXTD SCATEXTD axisobj 41.598 41.619 41.578 ecceobj 0.116 0.117 0.114 incobj 17.439 17.439 17.439 qmin 36.241 36.159 36.309 qmax 46.813 46.855 46.804 amean 41.402 41.403 41.379 amin 41.074 41.065 41.048 amax 41.763 41.774 41.742 emean 0.105 0.106 0.104 emin 0.091 0.090 0.089 emax 0.121 0.123 0.122 imean 18.275 18.265 18.262 imin 17.557 17.558 17.558 imax 19.061 19.022 19.019 excite_mean 0.331 0.331 0.330 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 2.942 2.942 2.942 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 178.9 179.4 179.5 kozaiamp 180.0 180.0 180.0