The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15RJ278
# Created Fri Nov 22 02:10:26 2024
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting 31 observations of 31
# Arc: 2.50y
# First observation: 2015/06/23
# Last observation: 2017/12/23
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
-0.000062 0.017207 0.000005 0.001536 0.020783 0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit: 6.79 DOF: 56 RMS: 0.08
# Min/Max residuals: -0.20 0.21
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
1.313146E-05 1.686729E-02 1.186283E-06 1.516585E-03 2.047504E-02 6.159025E-04
# Covariance matrix:
1.9862E-13 4.1651E-14 -5.7345E-15 1.3973E-14 1.9668E-13 4.0544E-12
4.1651E-14 3.0271E-13 -1.2545E-14 3.6483E-14 3.1425E-13 1.0576E-11
-5.7345E-15 -1.2545E-14 1.0964E-13 -7.6263E-14 -1.7254E-14 -6.7099E-13
1.3973E-14 3.6483E-14 -7.6263E-14 9.4045E-14 4.7416E-14 2.1073E-12
1.9668E-13 3.1425E-13 -1.7254E-14 4.7416E-14 4.8636E-13 1.3749E-11
4.0544E-12 1.0576E-11 -6.7099E-13 2.1073E-12 1.3749E-11 6.1061E-10
# lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0
0.773602 8.089056 1.010119 -0.001423 0.112195 2457197.046308
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch: 2457190.5000 = 2015/06/17
Mean Anomaly: 174.06091 +/- 0.436
Argument of Peri: 192.89266 +/- 0.441
Long of Asc Node: 358.39116 +/- 0.002
Inclination: 5.22489 +/- 0.001
Eccentricity: 0.15935280 +/- 0.0001
Semi-Major Axis: 42.05913193 +/- 0.0026
Time of Perihelion: 2508648.9948 +/- 120.6
Perihelion: 35.35689166 +/- 0.0041
Aphelion: 48.76137221 +/- 0.0045
Period (y) 272.7713 +/- 0.03
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X 48.37715453 +/- 0.0016
Ecliptic Y 5.85637184 +/- 0.0002
Ecliptic Z 0.65952987 +/- 0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT -0.00024101 +/- 0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT 0.00223796 +/- 0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT 0.00020395 +/- 0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO 48.73480431 +/- 0.0016
Geocenter to KBO 48.83994582 +/- 0.0017
# Hcoef: 7.66
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15RJ278. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15RJ278) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2015 06 23.54553 00 28 29.641 +03 55 10.10 24.5r 15RJ278 568 C~2lVQ 2015 07 14.59595 00 28 35.381 +03 56 29.02 24.5r 15RJ278 568 C~2lVQ 2015 07 19.57506 00 28 31.970 +03 56 16.85 25.4r 15RJ278 568 C~2lVQ 2015 08 11.48002 00 27 54.288 +03 52 57.77 24.3r 15RJ278 568 C~2lVQ 2015 08 11.52446 00 27 54.192 +03 52 57.35 25.1r 15RJ278 568 C~2lVQ 2015 09 08.38855 00 26 28.374 +03 44 29.33 25.1r 15RJ278 568 C~2lVQ 2015 09 08.49278 00 26 27.995 +03 44 27.02 24.1r 15RJ278 568 C~2lVQ 2015 09 08.53500 00 26 27.833 +03 44 26.13 24.1r 15RJ278 568 C~2lVQ 2015 09 09.51188 00 26 24.260 +03 44 04.36 24.4w 15RJ278 568 C~2lVQ 2015 09 10.45287 00 26 20.790 +03 43 43.25 25.0w 15RJ278 568 C~2lVQ 2015 09 16.43732 00 25 58.179 +03 41 25.27 24.9w 15RJ278 568 C~2lVQ 2015 10 03.36404 00 24 51.482 +03 34 33.27 24.5w 15RJ278 568 C~2lVQ 2015 10 07.33325 00 24 35.751 +03 32 55.34 24.1r 15RJ278 568 C~2lVQ 2015 10 07.39133 00 24 35.512 +03 32 54.05 24.3r 15RJ278 568 C~2lVQ 2015 11 10.35840 00 22 36.147 +03 20 20.40 24.7w 15RJ278 568 C~2lVQ 2015 12 07.30512 00 21 42.487 +03 14 33.77 24.6w 15RJ278 568 C~2lVQ 2016 09 05.47023 00 30 05.341 +04 13 29.12 24.5w 15RJ278 568 C~2lVQ 2016 09 06.42437 00 30 01.934 +04 13 08.50 25.1w 15RJ278 568 C~2lVQ 2016 09 06.46487 00 30 01.794 +04 13 07.51 25.2w 15RJ278 568 C~2lVQ 2016 09 25.34339 00 28 49.852 +04 05 49.21 24.7w 15RJ278 568 C~2lVQ 2016 09 25.44037 00 28 49.456 +04 05 46.99 24.5w 15RJ278 568 C~2lVQ 2016 09 26.42319 00 28 45.559 +04 05 22.83 24.7w 15RJ278 568 C~2lVQ 2016 10 30.34865 00 26 36.576 +03 51 55.80 24.0w 15RJ278 568 C~2lVQ 2016 11 03.30427 00 26 23.583 +03 50 33.18 25.5w 15RJ278 568 C~2lVQ 2016 11 03.35669 00 26 23.422 +03 50 32.07 24.2w 15RJ278 568 C~2lVQ 2016 12 24.26183 00 25 01.064 +03 41 34.75 24.7w 15RJ278 568 C~2lVQ 2017 01 02.24972 00 25 06.449 +03 42 06.39 24.9w 15RJ278 568 C~2lVQ 2017 01 29.22410 00 25 59.504 +03 47 40.96 24.6w 15RJ278 568 C~2lVQ 2017 09 15.44482 00 32 58.916 +04 38 02.06 24.8w 15RJ278 568 C~2lVQ 2017 09 22.50999 00 32 31.570 +04 35 15.83 24.4w 15RJ278 568 C~2lVQ 2017 12 23.30656 00 28 26.372 +04 09 18.78 15RJ278 568 C~2lVQ
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 -0.02 0.00 -0.00
2 0.0576 110.07 0.02 38.61 0.08
3 0.0713 58.37 -0.01 47.57 0.01
4 0.1340 -538.33 -0.04 87.31 0.04
5 0.1341 -539.82 0.21 87.49 0.13
6 0.2104 -1920.51 -0.06 128.27 0.04
7 0.2107 -1926.63 0.05 128.39 -0.02
8 0.2108 -1929.21 -0.00 128.54 0.05
9 0.2135 -1986.95 0.03 129.68 -0.02
10 0.2160 -2043.01 0.01 130.82 -0.03
11 0.2324 -2408.48 -0.01 137.90 -0.06
12 0.2788 -3488.69 -0.01 154.45 -0.16
13 0.2896 -3743.80 -0.07 157.71 -0.06
14 0.2898 -3747.60 -0.09 157.94 0.11
15 0.3828 -5688.21 -0.12 173.68 0.14
16 0.4566 -6564.13 0.16 173.93 -0.06
17 1.2044 1749.36 0.06 444.99 0.13
18 1.2071 1694.39 -0.11 446.13 0.02
19 1.2072 1692.07 -0.05 446.05 -0.14
20 1.2589 530.13 0.01 467.86 -0.10
21 1.2591 523.81 -0.00 468.16 0.07
22 1.2618 460.70 -0.02 468.97 -0.06
23 1.3547 -1631.25 0.08 489.88 0.03
24 1.3655 -1842.54 -0.07 490.85 0.04
25 1.3657 -1845.20 0.06 490.78 -0.07
26 1.5050 -3190.11 0.06 484.81 -0.12
27 1.5296 -3103.54 -0.01 481.98 -0.11
28 1.6035 -2241.69 -0.07 475.15 -0.20
29 2.2311 4716.31 -0.02 776.62 0.14
30 2.2504 4274.81 0.04 784.65 0.17
31 2.5017 290.08 0.02 799.07 0.02
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15RJ278 quality flag:3 Type: 5:3EE 5:3EE 5:3EE axisobj 42.407 42.416 42.399 ecceobj 0.150 0.150 0.150 incobj 5.195 5.195 5.195 qmin 34.821 34.731 35.061 qmax 50.443 50.596 50.344 amean 42.328 42.328 42.328 amin 41.815 41.805 41.777 amax 42.892 42.898 42.922 emean 0.158 0.158 0.156 emin 0.133 0.136 0.139 emax 0.177 0.179 0.174 imean 5.474 5.474 4.976 imin 3.929 4.053 2.926 imax 6.815 6.952 6.788 excite_mean 0.185 0.185 0.180 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 3.041 3.041 3.043 libcent 0 180.4 179.7 181.0 libamp 0 138.3 138.6 144.7 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 169.5 188.4 193.9 kozaiamp 180.0 180.0 180.0