The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15RJ281
# Created Fri Nov 22 02:10:29 2024
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting 33 observations of 33
# Arc: 2.19y
# First observation: 2015/07/14
# Last observation: 2017/09/22
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
-0.000130 0.015189 0.000012 0.002800 0.019144 0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit: 16.98 DOF: 60 RMS: 0.13
# Min/Max residuals: -0.32 0.32
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
1.261008E-05 1.499447E-02 2.857322E-06 2.796102E-03 1.910218E-02 1.955065E-03
# Covariance matrix:
2.4740E-13 1.9446E-14 -1.3914E-14 3.5935E-14 2.2666E-13 6.1639E-12
1.9446E-14 2.1029E-13 -1.5125E-14 4.3284E-14 2.1165E-13 7.5287E-12
-1.3914E-14 -1.5125E-14 1.2261E-13 -9.5381E-14 -2.8827E-14 -1.1645E-12
3.5935E-14 4.3284E-14 -9.5381E-14 1.2362E-13 7.9603E-14 3.6379E-12
2.2666E-13 2.1165E-13 -2.8827E-14 7.9603E-14 4.2721E-13 1.3782E-11
6.1639E-12 7.5287E-12 -1.1645E-12 3.6379E-12 1.3782E-11 6.3958E-10
# lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0
2.488068 11.896910 1.002456 0.007687 -0.174563 2457218.063999
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch: 2457210.5000 = 2015/07/07
Mean Anomaly: 137.17013 +/- 0.401
Argument of Peri: 224.23149 +/- 0.391
Long of Asc Node: 357.81112 +/- 0.002
Inclination: 10.90300 +/- 0.001
Eccentricity: 0.17751801 +/- 0.0007
Semi-Major Axis: 45.98739486 +/- 0.0118
Time of Perihelion: 2413808.1064 +/- 125.8
Perihelion: 37.82380414 +/- 0.0341
Aphelion: 54.15098558 +/- 0.0355
Period (y) 311.8648 +/- 0.12
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X 51.55130785 +/- 0.0018
Ecliptic Y 9.83731913 +/- 0.0004
Ecliptic Z 2.27278656 +/- 0.0001
Ecliptic XDOT -0.00018841 +/- 0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT 0.00215078 +/- 0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT 0.00041260 +/- 0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO 52.53071242 +/- 0.0017
Geocenter to KBO 52.35003859 +/- 0.0018
# Hcoef: 7.52
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15RJ281. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15RJ281) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2015 07 14.56321 00 39 50.682 +06 59 36.06 24.8r 15RJ281 568 C~2nvt 2015 08 19.62908 00 38 57.719 +06 56 43.18 24.3r 15RJ281 568 C~2nvt 2015 08 20.48358 00 38 55.540 +06 56 32.35 25.1r 15RJ281 568 C~2nvt 2015 09 07.58083 00 38 01.647 +06 51 55.22 24.9w 15RJ281 568 C~2nvt 2015 09 09.40852 00 37 55.518 +06 51 22.11 24.8r 15RJ281 568 C~2nvt 2015 09 09.44963 00 37 55.381 +06 51 21.39 24.7r 15RJ281 568 C~2nvt 2015 09 09.49055 00 37 55.240 +06 51 20.63 24.6r 15RJ281 568 C~2nvt 2015 09 10.51481 00 37 51.761 +06 51 01.62 25.0w 15RJ281 568 C~2nvt 2015 09 18.47788 00 37 23.721 +06 48 26.11 25.1w 15RJ281 568 C~2nvt 2015 10 08.36567 00 36 09.775 +06 41 16.01 25.2w 15RJ281 568 C~2nvt 2015 10 08.41827 00 36 09.569 +06 41 14.72 24.6w 15RJ281 568 C~2nvt 2015 10 09.33525 00 36 06.132 +06 40 54.32 24.8w 15RJ281 568 C~2nvt 2015 11 10.46169 00 34 17.154 +06 29 36.32 23.9w 15RJ281 568 C~2nvt 2015 12 08.25986 00 33 19.894 +06 23 05.76 24.4w 15RJ281 568 C~2nvt 2016 01 02.27354 00 33 12.720 +06 21 41.72 24.8w 15RJ281 568 C~2nvt 2016 09 05.49045 00 41 03.715 +07 21 40.58 25.1w 15RJ281 568 C~2nvt 2016 09 05.50664 00 41 03.654 +07 21 40.35 25.6w 15RJ281 568 C~2nvt 2016 09 06.44465 00 41 00.601 +07 21 24.16 25.0w 15RJ281 568 C~2nvt 2016 09 06.46082 00 41 00.535 +07 21 23.74 25.1w 15RJ281 568 C~2nvt 2016 09 06.48592 00 41 00.464 +07 21 23.55 25.0w 15RJ281 568 C~2nvt 2016 09 06.50211 00 41 00.415 +07 21 23.22 25.4w 15RJ281 568 C~2nvt 2016 09 26.44346 00 39 49.666 +07 14 50.08 24.2w 15RJ281 568 C~2nvt 2016 11 03.41462 00 37 33.382 +07 01 03.58 24.8w 15RJ281 568 C~2nvt 2016 11 04.33644 00 37 30.491 +07 00 45.28 15RJ281 568 C~2nvt 2016 12 29.25523 00 36 05.708 +06 50 38.40 25.3w 15RJ281 568 C~2nvt 2016 12 29.27436 00 36 05.714 +06 50 38.55 25.2w 15RJ281 568 C~2nvt 2017 01 03.22553 00 36 08.266 +06 50 45.54 25.3w 15RJ281 568 C~2nvt 2017 01 03.24627 00 36 08.265 +06 50 45.73 25.3w 15RJ281 568 C~2nvt 2017 01 27.27188 00 36 45.560 +06 54 03.10 23.9w 15RJ281 568 C~2nvt 2017 01 28.26808 00 36 47.938 +06 54 16.57 25.3w 15RJ281 568 C~2nvt 2017 01 30.23419 00 36 52.848 +06 54 45.35 25.0w 15RJ281 568 C~2nvt 2017 09 16.50931 00 43 24.500 +07 47 34.75 24.9w 15RJ281 568 C~2nvt 2017 09 22.46275 00 43 03.025 +07 45 35.25 25.1w 15RJ281 568 C~2nvt
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 -0.04 0.00 -0.11
2 0.0987 -793.17 0.32 150.39 0.23
3 0.1011 -827.27 0.08 153.17 -0.10
4 0.1506 -1674.19 -0.18 213.57 -0.16
5 0.1556 -1771.14 -0.21 219.00 -0.00
6 0.1557 -1773.30 -0.13 219.14 0.00
7 0.1559 -1775.53 -0.12 219.27 -0.00
8 0.1587 -1830.64 -0.01 222.15 -0.05
9 0.1805 -2275.81 0.08 243.39 0.17
10 0.2349 -3457.93 0.13 281.60 -0.03
11 0.2351 -3461.26 0.01 281.63 -0.10
12 0.2376 -3516.37 -0.11 283.05 0.08
13 0.3255 -5276.83 0.07 300.41 0.26
14 0.4016 -6215.91 0.03 278.72 0.00
15 0.4701 -6347.49 0.01 243.78 -0.13
16 1.1470 1519.03 -0.07 792.71 -0.16
17 1.1470 1518.11 -0.15 792.86 -0.07
18 1.1496 1469.98 0.09 795.74 -0.05
19 1.1496 1468.91 -0.13 795.74 -0.11
20 1.1497 1467.86 0.15 795.98 0.04
21 1.1497 1467.06 0.21 795.96 -0.03
22 1.2043 344.53 0.02 846.74 -0.06
23 1.3083 -1845.59 0.18 883.27 -0.13
24 1.3108 -1892.37 0.00 883.37 0.07
25 1.4612 -3292.03 0.06 822.45 -0.04
26 1.4612 -3291.89 0.13 822.56 0.09
27 1.4748 -3254.19 0.09 814.01 -0.11
28 1.4748 -3254.13 -0.05 814.19 0.10
29 1.5406 -2665.75 0.01 776.87 0.25
30 1.5433 -2627.89 -0.32 775.31 0.03
31 1.5487 -2549.34 -0.15 772.99 0.27
32 2.1764 4053.90 -0.08 1405.03 -0.05
33 2.1927 3713.29 0.07 1419.60 -0.08
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15RJ281 quality flag:3 Type: SCATEXTD SCATEXTD SCATEXTD axisobj 46.399 46.434 46.365 ecceobj 0.170 0.172 0.168 incobj 10.839 10.839 10.839 qmin 37.388 37.323 37.436 qmax 55.560 55.561 55.230 amean 46.190 46.229 46.159 amin 45.786 45.832 45.773 amax 46.689 46.691 46.616 emean 0.174 0.176 0.172 emin 0.161 0.163 0.159 emax 0.190 0.191 0.186 imean 11.281 11.289 11.280 imin 10.695 10.711 10.716 imax 11.855 11.849 11.835 excite_mean 0.262 0.263 0.261 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 3.044 3.043 3.044 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 179.2 179.5 179.6 kozaiamp 179.9 180.0 180.0