The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15RL281
# Created Sun Dec 22 02:10:30 2024
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting 25 observations of 25
# Arc: 2.44y
# First observation: 2015/07/14
# Last observation: 2017/12/23
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
-0.000105 0.024229 -0.000037 -0.011169 0.025997 0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit: 8.54 DOF: 44 RMS: 0.10
# Min/Max residuals: -0.23 0.36
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
1.458624E-05 2.393402E-02 -6.764844E-06 -1.111835E-02 2.580196E-02 1.465760E-03
# Covariance matrix:
2.3218E-13 4.5079E-14 2.0496E-14 -1.0749E-13 2.1943E-13 5.1872E-12
4.5079E-14 3.4972E-13 4.6746E-14 -2.2985E-13 3.1037E-13 1.1036E-11
2.0496E-14 4.6746E-14 1.3822E-13 -1.7574E-13 6.2642E-14 3.8680E-12
-1.0749E-13 -2.2985E-13 -1.7574E-13 5.2097E-13 -3.1231E-13 -1.8160E-11
2.1943E-13 3.1037E-13 6.2642E-14 -3.1231E-13 4.6924E-13 1.5012E-11
5.1872E-12 1.1036E-11 3.8680E-12 -1.8160E-11 1.5012E-11 8.6857E-10
# lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0
1.964313 12.140919 1.003191 0.005944 -0.170358 2457218.063999
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch: 2457210.5000 = 2015/07/07
Mean Anomaly: 43.20094 +/- 0.868
Argument of Peri: 128.54834 +/- 0.991
Long of Asc Node: 194.87122 +/- 0.000
Inclination: 24.95675 +/- 0.001
Eccentricity: 0.04387114 +/- 0.0009
Semi-Major Axis: 40.18293435 +/- 0.0046
Time of Perihelion: 2446045.6835 +/- 224.4
Perihelion: 38.42006311 +/- 0.0351
Aphelion: 41.94580559 +/- 0.0351
Period (y) 254.7245 +/- 0.04
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X 38.24168476 +/- 0.0010
Ecliptic Y 7.20177347 +/- 0.0002
Ecliptic Z 1.32825538 +/- 0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT -0.00034492 +/- 0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT 0.00251775 +/- 0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT -0.00117368 +/- 0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO 38.93656709 +/- 0.0010
Geocenter to KBO 38.75674490 +/- 0.0010
# Hcoef: 8.97
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15RL281. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15RL281) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2015 07 14.56321 00 41 34.503 +06 36 25.22 24.8r 15RL281 568 C~2nvt 2015 07 19.54121 00 41 33.299 +06 36 00.08 25.0r 15RL281 568 C~2nvt 2015 08 20.43431 00 40 34.493 +06 27 39.29 24.5r 15RL281 568 C~2nvt 2015 08 20.48358 00 40 34.343 +06 27 37.98 24.6r 15RL281 568 C~2nvt 2015 09 09.40852 00 39 20.523 +06 18 08.50 25.1r 15RL281 568 C~2nvt 2015 09 09.44963 00 39 20.349 +06 18 07.17 25.4r 15RL281 568 C~2nvt 2015 09 09.49055 00 39 20.180 +06 18 05.84 24.8r 15RL281 568 C~2nvt 2015 09 10.51481 00 39 15.831 +06 17 32.48 25.2w 15RL281 568 C~2nvt 2015 09 18.47788 00 38 40.727 +06 13 02.52 24.8w 15RL281 568 C~2nvt 2015 10 08.36567 00 37 07.519 +06 00 57.10 25.0w 15RL281 568 C~2nvt 2015 10 08.41827 00 37 07.261 +06 00 55.19 25.5w 15RL281 568 C~2nvt 2015 10 09.33525 00 37 02.932 +06 00 20.96 25.0w 15RL281 568 C~2nvt 2015 11 10.46169 00 34 46.380 +05 41 29.04 24.8w 15RL281 568 C~2nvt 2015 12 08.25986 00 33 38.445 +05 29 55.78 25.1w 15RL281 568 C~2nvt 2016 01 01.26556 00 33 36.124 +05 25 47.60 25.3w 15RL281 568 C~2nvt 2016 09 05.59118 00 45 43.933 +06 16 39.89 24.8w 15RL281 568 C~2nvt 2016 09 06.54027 00 45 40.113 +06 16 10.09 24.8w 15RL281 568 C~2nvt 2016 09 06.58238 00 45 39.944 +06 16 08.68 24.9w 15RL281 568 C~2nvt 2016 09 27.49689 00 44 07.136 +06 04 10.70 25.1w 15RL281 568 C~2nvt 2016 11 02.39575 00 41 23.880 +05 42 32.62 24.5r 15RL281 568 C~2nvt 2016 11 04.30057 00 41 16.336 +05 41 29.39 24.8w 15RL281 568 C~2nvt 2016 11 04.35961 00 41 16.098 +05 41 27.37 25.5w 15RL281 568 C~2nvt 2016 12 29.28720 00 39 36.291 +05 23 09.22 25.6w 15RL281 568 C~2nvt 2017 01 02.32226 00 39 39.945 +05 22 57.82 25.4w 15RL281 568 C~2nvt 2017 12 23.29251 00 45 36.803 +05 20 46.34 24.9w 15RL281 568 C~2nvt
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 0.02 0.00 -0.01
2 0.0136 -26.35 -0.06 -16.11 0.12
3 0.1009 -1028.86 -0.02 -133.60 0.17
4 0.1011 -1031.43 0.02 -133.93 0.02
5 0.1556 -2267.14 -0.12 -226.18 0.05
6 0.1557 -2270.04 -0.08 -226.38 0.03
7 0.1559 -2272.88 0.02 -226.61 -0.02
8 0.1587 -2345.62 0.04 -231.85 -0.02
9 0.1805 -2933.11 0.06 -274.61 -0.23
10 0.2349 -4497.04 0.09 -395.18 -0.09
11 0.2351 -4501.33 0.05 -395.42 -0.02
12 0.2376 -4574.20 -0.03 -401.49 0.03
13 0.3255 -6894.79 0.36 -639.34 0.08
14 0.4016 -8101.85 -0.18 -876.37 0.02
15 0.4674 -8231.91 -0.19 -1090.89 -0.17
16 1.1472 2960.02 -0.05 -2543.44 0.06
17 1.1498 2895.93 -0.03 -2548.69 -0.01
18 1.1499 2893.06 0.01 -2549.01 -0.11
19 1.2072 1338.30 0.01 -2670.28 0.12
20 1.3055 -1411.52 0.12 -2912.75 0.11
21 1.3107 -1539.91 0.02 -2926.85 -0.00
22 1.3109 -1543.97 -0.04 -2927.32 -0.07
23 1.4613 -3345.79 -0.22 -3353.82 -0.04
24 1.4723 -3300.05 0.16 -3385.72 -0.05
25 2.4442 1555.01 0.01 -5591.69 0.03
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15RL281 quality flag:3 Type: SCATEXTD SCATEXTD SCATEXTD axisobj 40.534 40.554 40.514 ecceobj 0.051 0.053 0.049 incobj 24.844 24.845 24.843 qmin 37.899 37.846 37.964 qmax 42.922 43.098 42.864 amean 40.349 40.369 40.330 amin 40.043 40.067 40.035 amax 40.657 40.687 40.641 emean 0.045 0.047 0.043 emin 0.034 0.036 0.033 emax 0.056 0.059 0.055 imean 25.260 25.261 25.258 imin 24.802 24.819 24.801 imax 25.688 25.663 25.680 excite_mean 0.429 0.429 0.429 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 2.837 2.837 2.837 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 177.9 178.0 177.8 kozaiamp 180.0 180.0 180.0