The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15RN281
# Created Sun Dec 22 02:10:30 2024
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting 32 observations of 33
# Arc: 2.44y
# First observation: 2015/07/14
# Last observation: 2017/12/23
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
-0.000075 0.014360 0.000009 -0.012162 0.021547 0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit: 9.05 DOF: 58 RMS: 0.09
# Min/Max residuals: -0.25 0.25
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
9.639065E-06 1.414512E-02 -8.874144E-06 -1.197945E-02 2.137760E-02 -1.091543E-03
# Covariance matrix:
1.7693E-13 1.5482E-14 1.3965E-14 -8.3397E-14 1.8032E-13 3.3341E-12
1.5482E-14 1.7992E-13 2.9587E-14 -1.5261E-13 2.0964E-13 6.0714E-12
1.3965E-14 2.9587E-14 1.1019E-13 -1.1728E-13 4.8314E-14 2.1475E-12
-8.3397E-14 -1.5261E-13 -1.1728E-13 3.3611E-13 -2.6361E-13 -1.0420E-11
1.8032E-13 2.0964E-13 4.8314E-14 -2.6361E-13 4.4539E-13 1.0508E-11
3.3341E-12 6.0714E-12 2.1475E-12 -1.0420E-11 1.0508E-11 4.1358E-10
# lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0
3.417604 12.783361 1.005053 0.009586 -0.158831 2457218.059109
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch: 2457210.5000 = 2015/07/07
Mean Anomaly: 219.99846 +/- 0.367
Argument of Peri: 323.23790 +/- 0.362
Long of Asc Node: 195.55810 +/- 0.000
Inclination: 40.44496 +/- 0.001
Eccentricity: 0.13053017 +/- 0.0005
Semi-Major Axis: 42.44309089 +/- 0.0066
Time of Perihelion: 2496487.5833 +/- 102.6
Perihelion: 36.90298724 +/- 0.0232
Aphelion: 47.98319455 +/- 0.0237
Period (y) 276.5150 +/- 0.06
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X 45.91138548 +/- 0.0014
Ecliptic Y 9.38715624 +/- 0.0003
Ecliptic Z 2.78821493 +/- 0.0001
Ecliptic XDOT -0.00045002 +/- 0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT 0.00174975 +/- 0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT -0.00153976 +/- 0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO 46.94409613 +/- 0.0014
Geocenter to KBO 46.77794644 +/- 0.0015
# Hcoef: 8.26
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15RN281. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15RN281) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2015 07 14.55832 00 41 39.639 +08 11 43.90 24.8r 15RN281 568 C~2nvu 2015 07 19.53712 00 41 37.871 +08 11 19.69 25.0r 15RN281 568 C~2nvu 2015 08 13.50040 00 41 01.516 +08 06 13.21 24.4r 15RN281 568 C~2nvu 2015 08 13.55382 00 41 01.397 +08 06 12.08 25.1r 15RN281 568 C~2nvu 2015 08 20.43842 00 40 43.990 +08 03 55.99 25.3r 15RN281 568 C~2nvu 2015 08 20.48764 00 40 43.865 +08 03 54.92 24.9r 15RN281 568 C~2nvu 2015 09 07.58494 00 39 46.116 +07 56 25.86 25.1w 15RN281 568 C~2nvu 2015 09 09.41265 00 39 39.506 +07 55 34.18 25.1r 15RN281 568 C~2nvu 2015 09 09.45371 00 39 39.363 +07 55 33.06 24.9r 15RN281 568 C~2nvu 2015 09 09.49464 00 39 39.206 +07 55 31.86 25.1r 15RN281 568 C~2nvu 2015 09 10.51893 00 39 35.433 +07 55 02.35 25.2w 15RN281 568 C~2nvu 2015 09 18.48318 00 39 05.060 +07 51 03.57 24.9w 15RN281 568 C~2nvu 2015 10 08.37093 00 37 44.598 +07 40 14.22 24.8w 15RN281 568 C~2nvu 2015 10 08.42353 00 37 44.375 +07 40 12.38 25.0w 15RN281 568 C~2nvu 2015 10 09.34050 00 37 40.634 +07 39 41.45 24.8w 15RN281 568 C~2nvu 2015 11 10.46703 00 35 41.979 +07 22 12.01 25.3w 15RN281 568 C~2nvu 2016 01 02.27875 00 34 35.063 +07 05 03.32 25.6w 15RN281 568 C~2nvu 2016 09 05.48236 00 44 00.168 +07 37 49.13 24.6w 15RN281 568 C~2nvu 2016 09 06.43656 00 43 56.814 +07 37 22.66 25.5w 15RN281 568 C~2nvu 2016 09 06.47701 00 43 56.653 +07 37 21.45 25.2w 15RN281 568 C~2nvu 2016 09 06.52410 00 43 56.484 +07 37 20.41 25.1w 15RN281 568 C~2nvu 2016 09 06.56619 00 43 56.348 +07 37 19.09 25.5w 15RN281 568 C~2nvu 2016 09 26.43941 00 42 39.974 +07 27 11.21 24.8w 15RN281 568 C~2nvu 2016 09 27.47990 00 42 35.747 +07 26 37.28 24.9w 15RN281 568 C~2nvu 2016 11 04.28877 00 40 08.049 +07 05 49.03 25.1w 15RN281 568 C~2nvu 2016 11 04.34801 00 40 07.841 +07 05 47.29 24.9w 15RN281 568 C~2nvu 2016 12 29.27436 00 38 37.091 +06 46 38.70 25.5w 15RN281 568 C~2nvu 2017 01 03.24627 00 38 40.331 +06 46 05.39 24.5w 15RN281 568 C~2nvu 2017 09 15.43089 00 47 34.355 +07 13 39.54 25.8w 15RN281 568 C~2nvu 2017 09 16.51398 00 47 30.210 +07 13 06.30 25.5w 15RN281 568 C~2nvu 2017 09 22.46739 00 47 06.915 +07 09 59.50 25.2w 15RN281 568 C~2nvu 2017 09 22.49605 00 47 06.802 +07 09 58.54 25.9w 15RN281 568 C~2nvu 2017 12 23.28322 00 42 41.180 +06 28 35.32 25.3w 15RN281 568 C~2nvu
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 0.17 0.00 0.00
2 0.0136 -33.64 0.19 -11.99 -0.01
3 0.0820 -650.41 -0.10 -82.25 0.05
4 0.0821 -652.48 -0.05 -82.60 -0.15
5 0.1010 -943.66 -0.25 -106.35 0.09
6 0.1011 -945.78 -0.09 -106.60 -0.01
7 0.1507 -1911.07 -0.06 -182.72 0.01
8 0.1557 -2021.69 -0.02 -191.64 0.03
9 0.1558 -2024.08 0.13 -191.84 0.02
10 0.1559 -2026.70 0.07 -192.02 0.01
11 0.1587 -2089.85 -0.01 -197.13 -0.02
12 0.1805 -2598.74 0.05 -239.22 -0.01
13 0.2349 -3954.04 0.11 -365.30 -0.02
14 0.2351 -3957.81 0.02 -365.69 -0.05
15 0.2376 -4021.14 -0.07 -372.20 0.02
16 0.3256 -6057.85 ( 0.59) -640.24 ( -0.08)
17 0.4701 -7380.69 0.04 -1191.74 0.04
18 1.1470 1125.35 -0.04 -2689.64 -0.10
19 1.1496 1069.10 0.05 -2694.52 -0.01
20 1.1497 1066.42 -0.18 -2694.70 -0.00
21 1.1498 1063.70 -0.05 -2694.68 0.25
22 1.1499 1061.33 0.12 -2695.10 0.03
23 1.2043 -221.78 0.04 -2810.51 -0.03
24 1.2072 -292.92 0.09 -2817.13 0.02
25 1.3107 -2804.47 -0.07 -3103.99 -0.17
26 1.3109 -2808.00 -0.07 -3104.37 -0.07
27 1.4612 -4502.87 -0.00 -3629.73 -0.02
28 1.4748 -4471.60 -0.14 -3679.36 0.11
29 2.1735 3495.56 0.07 -5267.51 0.14
30 2.1765 3425.77 0.04 -5274.14 0.04
31 2.1928 3033.52 -0.10 -5311.37 -0.09
32 2.1928 3031.59 -0.07 -5311.60 -0.15
33 2.4441 -1581.84 0.19 -6054.63 0.07
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15RN281 quality flag:3 Type: SCATEXTD SCATEXTD SCATEXTD axisobj 42.727 42.744 42.711 ecceobj 0.124 0.125 0.122 incobj 40.233 40.234 40.232 qmin 35.914 35.978 35.973 qmax 49.490 49.539 49.437 amean 42.564 42.582 42.545 amin 42.207 42.244 42.206 amax 42.948 42.961 42.916 emean 0.130 0.132 0.129 emin 0.108 0.111 0.106 emax 0.153 0.153 0.152 imean 40.393 40.394 40.394 imin 40.058 40.071 40.039 imax 40.754 40.746 40.756 excite_mean 0.661 0.661 0.661 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 2.502 2.502 2.503 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 159.6 159.6 159.8 kozaiamp 180.0 179.9 180.0