The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15RP281
# Created Tue Jan 21 02:10:42 2025
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting 32 observations of 32
# Arc: 2.36y
# First observation: 2015/07/14
# Last observation: 2017/11/22
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
-0.000088 0.018010 0.000004 -0.000164 0.020817 0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit: 9.77 DOF: 58 RMS: 0.10
# Min/Max residuals: -0.29 0.32
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
1.394256E-05 1.779221E-02 -6.244266E-07 -1.616320E-04 2.067350E-02 1.902938E-03
# Covariance matrix:
1.6138E-13 4.0029E-15 -4.0871E-15 9.9373E-16 1.3947E-13 2.9183E-12
4.0029E-15 3.1487E-13 -7.4490E-15 3.7247E-15 2.6564E-13 1.1348E-11
-4.0871E-15 -7.4490E-15 1.0293E-13 -7.4024E-14 -1.1102E-14 -3.3296E-13
9.9373E-16 3.7247E-15 -7.4024E-14 9.4827E-14 4.0221E-15 2.0347E-13
1.3947E-13 2.6564E-13 -1.1102E-14 4.0221E-15 3.8676E-13 1.2095E-11
2.9183E-12 1.1348E-11 -3.3296E-13 2.0347E-13 1.2095E-11 6.2372E-10
# lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0
2.999228 12.877303 1.005313 0.008340 -0.157251 2457218.059109
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch: 2457210.5000 = 2015/07/07
Mean Anomaly: 129.91675 +/- 0.492
Argument of Peri: 319.17601 +/- 0.479
Long of Asc Node: 273.09343 +/- 0.019
Inclination: 3.02300 +/- 0.000
Eccentricity: 0.11857877 +/- 0.0008
Semi-Major Axis: 44.79479399 +/- 0.0098
Time of Perihelion: 2417691.8226 +/- 149.0
Perihelion: 39.48308229 +/- 0.0370
Aphelion: 50.10650569 +/- 0.0376
Period (y) 299.8123 +/- 0.10
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X 47.46391743 +/- 0.0014
Ecliptic Y 9.82085155 +/- 0.0003
Ecliptic Z 2.53091958 +/- 0.0001
Ecliptic XDOT -0.00028098 +/- 0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT 0.00234707 +/- 0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT -0.00000813 +/- 0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO 48.53532875 +/- 0.0014
Geocenter to KBO 48.37111273 +/- 0.0015
# Hcoef: 7.71
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15RP281. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15RP281) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2015 07 14.55832 00 42 40.273 +07 50 50.34 24.7r 15RP281 568 C~2nvu 2015 07 19.53712 00 42 38.542 +07 50 58.93 24.1r 15RP281 568 C~2nvu 2015 08 13.50040 00 42 03.261 +07 48 46.35 24.6r 15RP281 568 C~2nvu 2015 08 19.56300 00 41 48.553 +07 47 31.44 24.5r 15RP281 568 C~2nvu 2015 08 20.48764 00 41 46.130 +07 47 19.04 24.4r 15RP281 568 C~2nvu 2015 09 07.58494 00 40 50.113 +07 42 07.64 24.9w 15RP281 568 C~2nvu 2015 09 09.41265 00 40 43.688 +07 41 30.35 24.4r 15RP281 568 C~2nvu 2015 09 09.45371 00 40 43.549 +07 41 29.47 24.4r 15RP281 568 C~2nvu 2015 09 09.49464 00 40 43.402 +07 41 28.59 24.5r 15RP281 568 C~2nvu 2015 09 10.51893 00 40 39.743 +07 41 07.12 24.1w 15RP281 568 C~2nvu 2015 09 18.48318 00 40 10.261 +07 38 11.09 24.7w 15RP281 568 C~2nvu 2015 10 08.37093 00 38 52.083 +07 30 02.82 24.7w 15RP281 568 C~2nvu 2015 10 08.42353 00 38 51.862 +07 30 01.48 24.4w 15RP281 568 C~2nvu 2015 10 09.34051 00 38 48.239 +07 29 37.99 24.3w 15RP281 568 C~2nvu 2015 11 10.46703 00 36 52.487 +07 16 30.91 24.7w 15RP281 568 C~2nvu 2015 12 08.26533 00 35 51.957 +07 08 31.42 25.1w 15RP281 568 C~2nvu 2016 07 07.58323 00 46 26.715 +08 13 35.79 24.8w 15RP281 568 C~2nvu 2016 07 08.56262 00 46 27.056 +08 13 41.71 25.0w 15RP281 568 C~2nvu 2016 09 05.48236 00 44 45.569 +08 06 16.08 25.0w 15RP281 568 C~2nvu 2016 09 05.57499 00 44 45.238 +08 06 14.11 25.3w 15RP281 568 C~2nvu 2016 09 06.43656 00 44 42.304 +08 05 57.26 24.9w 15RP281 568 C~2nvu 2016 09 06.47701 00 44 42.161 +08 05 56.42 24.9w 15RP281 568 C~2nvu 2016 09 06.52410 00 44 42.005 +08 05 55.51 24.6w 15RP281 568 C~2nvu 2016 09 06.56619 00 44 41.850 +08 05 54.67 24.9w 15RP281 568 C~2nvu 2016 09 26.43941 00 43 27.764 +07 58 31.94 24.7w 15RP281 568 C~2nvu 2016 11 04.28877 00 41 00.073 +07 42 23.14 24.8w 15RP281 568 C~2nvu 2016 11 04.34801 00 40 59.878 +07 42 21.79 25.3w 15RP281 568 C~2nvu 2016 12 29.29357 00 39 30.058 +07 29 36.06 24.4w 15RP281 568 C~2nvu 2017 01 02.32887 00 39 32.247 +07 29 32.64 24.6w 15RP281 568 C~2nvu 2017 09 16.50002 00 47 57.775 +08 26 02.18 25.2w 15RP281 568 C~2nvu 2017 09 22.45345 00 47 35.189 +08 23 47.19 24.8w 15RP281 568 C~2nvu 2017 11 22.33845 00 43 58.264 +07 59 43.38 25.3w 15RP281 568 C~2nvu
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 -0.07 0.00 0.10
2 0.0136 -20.31 0.01 17.97 0.05
3 0.0820 -554.63 0.21 101.30 0.32
4 0.0986 -785.09 -0.12 118.03 -0.18
5 0.1011 -823.08 -0.02 120.73 0.07
6 0.1507 -1711.12 0.01 160.81 -0.01
7 0.1557 -1813.61 -0.06 164.00 0.18
8 0.1558 -1815.86 0.05 164.00 0.09
9 0.1559 -1818.21 0.06 164.05 0.06
10 0.1587 -1876.67 0.02 165.65 0.02
11 0.1805 -2348.92 -0.05 175.85 -0.21
12 0.2349 -3610.00 0.02 183.91 -0.08
13 0.2351 -3613.55 -0.09 183.97 -0.03
14 0.2376 -3672.34 0.01 183.58 -0.11
15 0.3256 -5566.01 -0.04 138.60 -0.16
16 0.4017 -6583.80 0.07 53.60 -0.02
17 0.9830 3629.82 -0.03 -55.88 -0.04
18 0.9856 3636.79 -0.01 -52.40 -0.12
19 1.1470 2075.10 0.14 124.61 0.08
20 1.1472 2069.80 -0.06 124.72 -0.01
21 1.1496 2023.11 -0.03 126.21 0.01
22 1.1497 2020.83 -0.07 126.26 -0.02
23 1.1498 2018.34 0.07 126.33 -0.06
24 1.1499 2015.89 -0.04 126.45 -0.02
25 1.2043 829.94 0.05 148.77 -0.00
26 1.3107 -1568.86 -0.00 116.97 -0.01
27 1.3109 -1572.05 0.08 116.87 -0.01
28 1.4613 -3101.15 0.19 -62.85 -0.03
29 1.4723 -3072.55 -0.29 -78.79 -0.05
30 2.1764 5165.89 0.02 106.24 0.02
31 2.1927 4804.42 -0.05 112.07 0.17
32 2.3594 1274.90 0.04 37.44 -0.00
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15RP281 quality flag:3 Type: CLASSICAL CLASSICAL CLASSICAL axisobj 45.221 45.252 45.192 ecceobj 0.112 0.114 0.110 incobj 3.024 3.024 3.024 qmin 39.138 39.030 39.127 qmax 51.137 51.349 51.116 amean 45.000 45.027 44.971 amin 44.631 44.656 44.593 amax 45.390 45.435 45.382 emean 0.113 0.115 0.111 emin 0.098 0.100 0.096 emax 0.128 0.131 0.127 imean 4.908 4.917 4.903 imin 4.218 4.220 4.212 imax 5.562 5.584 5.541 excite_mean 0.142 0.144 0.140 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 3.089 3.089 3.089 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 176.1 175.9 175.6 kozaiamp 180.0 179.9 179.9