The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15RS245 # Created Sun Dec 22 02:10:27 2024 # Orbit generated by ELGB # -->Covariance matrix from a Bernstein fit # Fitting 22 observations of 22 # Arc: 7.13y # First observation: 2015/09/12 # Last observation: 2022/10/29 # Chi-squared of fit: 15.20 DOF: 38 RMS: 0.15 # Min/Max residuals: -0.53 0.24 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 1.649858E-05 2.982564E-02 3.145933E-07 -1.840074E-03 2.765227E-02 9.996547E-04 # Covariance matrix: 3.4486E-13 -1.9727E-13 -1.1293E-14 1.3449E-14 3.6260E-14 -7.8098E-13 -1.9727E-13 4.6061E-13 4.2213E-14 -3.1232E-14 3.8466E-13 2.0510E-12 -1.1293E-14 4.2213E-14 1.3872E-13 -3.9679E-14 4.1565E-14 1.9546E-13 1.3449E-14 -3.1232E-14 -3.9679E-14 2.1972E-14 -2.4838E-14 -1.4576E-13 3.6260E-14 3.8466E-13 4.1565E-14 -2.4838E-14 5.4035E-13 1.7497E-12 -7.8098E-13 2.0510E-12 1.9546E-13 -1.4576E-13 1.7497E-12 9.5489E-12 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 -16.169073 38.514004 0.767102 -0.182783 -0.631061 2457277.811391 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2457278.5000 = 2015/09/13 Mean Anomaly: 6.36102 +/- 0.061 Argument of Peri: 248.91958 +/- 0.073 Long of Asc Node: 141.29770 +/- 0.001 Inclination: 16.34413 +/- 0.000 Eccentricity: 0.08755131 +/- 0.0001 Semi-Major Axis: 40.30217378 +/- 0.0033 Time of Perihelion: 2455627.2414 +/- 15.8 Perihelion: 36.77366555 +/- 0.0037 Aphelion: 43.83068200 +/- 0.0042 Period (y) 255.8591 +/- 0.03 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X 28.16477889 +/- 0.0007 Ecliptic Y 21.43709109 +/- 0.0006 Ecliptic Z -10.07053145 +/- 0.0003 Ecliptic XDOT -0.00180602 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic YDOT 0.00233179 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic ZDOT -0.00020249 +/- 0.0000 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 36.79971149 +/- 0.0007 Geocenter to KBO 36.16339950 +/- 0.0010 # Hcoef: 8.18
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15RS245. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15RS245) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2015 09 12.310602 02 45 04.55 -01 00 29.1 23.7r 15RS245 W84 C~2B04 2015 09 12.316921 02 45 04.52 -01 00 29.3 23.1z 15RS245 W84 C~2B04 2015 10 16.303206 02 42 53.89 -01 20 20.2 23.6z 15RS245 W84 C~2B04 2016 09 22.287778 02 51 10.21 -00 40 57.1 23.6z 15RS245 W84 C~2B04 2016 10 05.178484 02 50 21.06 -00 48 30.7 23.9r 15RS245 W84 C~2B04 2016 10 10.173299 02 49 59.13 -00 51 21.0 23.9r 15RS245 W84 C~2B04 2016 10 10.175648 02 49 59.12 -00 51 21.1 23.8i 15RS245 W84 C~2B04 2016 10 10.179618 02 49 59.08 -00 51 21.2 23.5z 15RS245 W84 C~2B04 2016 11 10.096308 02 47 23.19 -01 06 03.4 23.5i 15RS245 W84 C~2B04 2016 12 01.082419 02 45 37.91 -01 11 26.4 23.2i 15RS245 W84 C~2B04 2016 12 17.173704 02 44 30.91 -01 12 13.1 23.6i 15RS245 W84 C~2B04 2016 12 24.046597 02 44 07.94 -01 11 37.7 24.2r 15RS245 W84 C~2B04 2016 12 24.048958 02 44 07.93 -01 11 37.6 24.0i 15RS245 W84 C~2B04 2016 12 24.052940 02 44 07.92 -01 11 37.5 23.4z 15RS245 W84 C~2B04 2017 11 14.196326 02 53 42.727 -00 41 20.92 23.6i 15RS245 W84 C~2g4S 2017 11 14.200301 02 53 42.711 -00 41 21.35 23.6z 15RS245 W84 C~2g4S 2017 12 07.097552 02 51 50.011 -00 46 09.54 24.1r 15RS245 W84 C~2g4S 2017 12 07.099914 02 51 49.986 -00 46 09.57 23.7i 15RS245 W84 C~2g4S 2017 12 26.082471 02 50 38.031 -00 45 39.10 23.5i 15RS245 W84 C~2g4S 2017 12 26.086441 02 50 38.024 -00 45 39.05 23.6z 15RS245 W84 C~2g4S 2022 10 29.378380 03 28 20.988 +01 35 03.39 24.3G 15RS245 G37 C~5z6Q 2022 10 29.426420 03 28 20.758 +01 35 02.14 15RS245 G37 C~5z6Q
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 0.20 0.00 -0.23
2 0.0000 0.00 -0.00 0.00 -0.21
3 0.0931 0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.13
4 1.0294 0.00 0.07 0.00 -0.09
5 1.0647 0.00 0.05 0.00 -0.14
6 1.0783 0.00 0.07 0.00 0.11
7 1.0783 0.00 0.08 0.00 0.09
8 1.0784 0.00 -0.25 0.00 0.12
9 1.1630 0.00 -0.09 0.00 0.20
10 1.2205 0.00 -0.18 0.00 -0.53
11 1.2645 0.00 -0.12 0.00 0.24
12 1.2833 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.03
13 1.2833 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.12
14 1.2833 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.19
15 2.1735 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.15
16 2.1736 0.00 0.10 0.00 -0.20
17 2.2362 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.06
18 2.2362 0.00 -0.15 0.00 0.05
19 2.2882 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.02
20 2.2882 0.00 0.11 0.00 0.03
21 7.1295 0.00 -0.11 0.00 -0.07
22 7.1297 0.00 0.11 0.00 -0.03
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15RS245 quality flag:3 Type: SCATEXTD SCATEXTD SCATEXTD axisobj 40.733 40.732 40.733 ecceobj 0.097 0.097 0.097 incobj 16.324 16.324 16.324 qmin 35.933 35.799 35.979 qmax 45.147 45.186 45.122 amean 40.424 40.425 40.424 amin 40.082 40.060 40.087 amax 40.792 40.787 40.784 emean 0.094 0.090 0.092 emin 0.081 0.064 0.075 emax 0.108 0.111 0.107 imean 15.324 15.274 15.362 imin 14.295 14.258 14.316 imax 16.771 16.800 16.816 excite_mean 0.280 0.278 0.280 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 2.971 2.973 2.971 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 184.1 182.9 180.2 kozaiamp 180.0 180.0 180.0