The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15RS281
# Created Sun Dec 22 02:10:30 2024
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting 34 observations of 34
# Arc: 2.50y
# First observation: 2015/06/23
# Last observation: 2017/12/23
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
-0.000056 0.021326 -0.000114 -0.016921 0.024437 0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit: 15.06 DOF: 62 RMS: 0.12
# Min/Max residuals: -0.29 0.31
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
1.418043E-05 2.094762E-02 -1.173170E-05 -1.681599E-02 2.403895E-02 5.892524E-03
# Covariance matrix:
1.6814E-13 -2.8547E-15 8.8304E-15 -4.5203E-14 1.2564E-13 1.2037E-12
-2.8547E-15 2.2305E-13 5.7235E-14 -2.0677E-13 2.0006E-13 5.3727E-12
8.8304E-15 5.7235E-14 1.3452E-13 -1.5738E-13 5.4659E-14 2.3586E-12
-4.5203E-14 -2.0677E-13 -1.5738E-13 3.8126E-13 -2.1460E-13 -8.1514E-12
1.2564E-13 2.0006E-13 5.4659E-14 -2.1460E-13 3.1313E-13 5.6137E-12
1.2037E-12 5.3727E-12 2.3586E-12 -8.1514E-12 5.6137E-12 2.1100E-10
# lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0
3.088692 11.277087 1.002481 -0.008911 0.166954 2457197.106478
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch: 2457190.5000 = 2015/06/17
Mean Anomaly: 15.73420 +/- 0.025
Argument of Peri: 135.51671 +/- 0.074
Long of Asc Node: 193.77064 +/- 0.000
Inclination: 38.67002 +/- 0.001
Eccentricity: 0.41132009 +/- 0.0005
Semi-Major Axis: 65.70672351 +/- 0.0317
Time of Perihelion: 2448687.8278 +/- 12.1
Perihelion: 38.68022793 +/- 0.0362
Aphelion: 92.73321909 +/- 0.0545
Period (y) 532.6267 +/- 0.39
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X 40.76530582 +/- 0.0010
Ecliptic Y 7.10767231 +/- 0.0002
Ecliptic Z 2.24100155 +/- 0.0001
Ecliptic XDOT 0.00028939 +/- 0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT 0.00248470 +/- 0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT -0.00187620 +/- 0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO 41.44093692 +/- 0.0009
Geocenter to KBO 41.59915125 +/- 0.0010
# Hcoef: 9.05
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15RS281. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15RS281) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2015 06 23.60570 00 36 35.914 +07 18 09.32 24.3r 15RS281 568 C~36T3 2015 07 14.55424 00 36 53.551 +07 18 06.23 25.9r 15RS281 568 C~36T3 2015 07 19.53302 00 36 52.124 +07 17 29.30 25.3r 15RS281 568 C~36T3 2015 08 20.43022 00 35 55.367 +07 08 06.73 24.9r 15RS281 568 C~36T3 2015 09 07.57672 00 34 52.894 +06 59 06.78 25.6w 15RS281 568 C~36T3 2015 09 09.40442 00 34 45.767 +06 58 05.58 25.5r 15RS281 568 C~36T3 2015 09 09.44553 00 34 45.593 +06 58 04.25 25.2r 15RS281 568 C~36T3 2015 09 09.48644 00 34 45.426 +06 58 02.88 25.2r 15RS281 568 C~36T3 2015 09 10.51074 00 34 41.347 +06 57 28.10 25.5w 15RS281 568 C~36T3 2015 09 18.47260 00 34 08.574 +06 52 47.02 25.4w 15RS281 568 C~36T3 2015 10 08.36042 00 32 42.080 +06 40 11.99 25.1w 15RS281 568 C~36T3 2015 10 08.41303 00 32 41.866 +06 40 09.97 25.3w 15RS281 568 C~36T3 2015 10 09.33000 00 32 37.865 +06 39 34.25 25.2w 15RS281 568 C~36T3 2015 11 10.45634 00 30 33.002 +06 19 39.48 25.4w 15RS281 568 C~36T3 2015 12 08.25463 00 29 33.280 +06 06 45.81 25.0w 15RS281 568 C~36T3 2016 09 05.49045 00 41 02.939 +06 34 31.99 25.6w 15RS281 568 C~36T3 2016 09 05.50258 00 41 02.894 +06 34 31.50 25.0w 15RS281 568 C~36T3 2016 09 06.44465 00 40 59.348 +06 34 00.54 25.7w 15RS281 568 C~36T3 2016 09 06.45678 00 40 59.296 +06 34 00.17 26.3w 15RS281 568 C~36T3 2016 09 06.48592 00 40 59.191 +06 33 59.08 25.6w 15RS281 568 C~36T3 2016 09 06.49805 00 40 59.138 +06 33 58.66 25.6w 15RS281 568 C~36T3 2016 09 26.43536 00 39 37.204 +06 22 08.50 25.1w 15RS281 568 C~36T3 2016 09 26.45968 00 39 37.077 +06 22 07.82 25.6w 15RS281 568 C~36T3 2016 10 26.40787 00 37 29.499 +06 03 10.11 25.3r 15RS281 568 C~36T3 2016 11 03.49128 00 36 59.038 +05 58 20.57 25.4w 15RS281 568 C~36T3 2016 11 04.27124 00 36 56.302 +05 57 53.63 25.7w 15RS281 568 C~36T3 2016 11 04.33051 00 36 56.074 +05 57 51.50 25.2w 15RS281 568 C~36T3 2016 12 29.26796 00 35 30.592 +05 37 08.78 25.7w 15RS281 568 C~36T3 2017 09 16.50467 00 46 21.208 +06 03 06.74 25.8w 15RS281 568 C~36T3 2017 09 17.40380 00 46 17.552 +06 02 34.65 25.5w 15RS281 568 C~36T3 2017 09 22.45810 00 45 56.500 +05 59 31.65 15RS281 568 C~36T3 2017 11 22.36083 00 42 01.668 +05 23 51.53 25.1w 15RS281 568 C~36T3 2017 12 23.29716 00 41 22.213 +05 13 51.71 25.5w 15RS281 568 C~36T3 2017 12 23.30180 00 41 22.215 +05 13 51.25 25.4w 15RS281 568 C~36T3
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 -0.08 0.00 0.14
2 0.0574 240.06 -0.18 -106.02 -0.29
3 0.0710 206.02 -0.01 -131.63 -0.12
4 0.1583 -791.81 -0.09 -316.58 0.31
5 0.2080 -1859.35 -0.11 -446.58 -0.09
6 0.2130 -1981.01 0.13 -461.00 -0.14
7 0.2131 -1983.91 0.04 -461.20 -0.04
8 0.2132 -1986.74 0.02 -461.48 -0.02
9 0.2160 -2056.27 -0.06 -469.50 0.06
10 0.2378 -2615.66 0.11 -535.36 -0.06
11 0.2923 -4097.86 -0.12 -720.40 0.07
12 0.2924 -4101.59 0.17 -720.99 -0.03
13 0.2949 -4170.49 0.02 -730.25 0.01
14 0.3829 -6353.78 -0.07 -1091.39 0.25
15 0.4590 -7479.38 -0.00 -1449.03 -0.09
16 1.2043 2631.45 0.11 -3967.69 0.19
17 1.2044 2630.64 0.10 -3967.88 0.10
18 1.2070 2569.88 0.03 -3975.70 0.09
19 1.2070 2569.02 -0.03 -3975.74 0.15
20 1.2071 2567.15 0.03 -3976.13 -0.02
21 1.2071 2566.26 -0.06 -3976.21 -0.00
22 1.2617 1164.15 0.19 -4151.53 -0.18
23 1.2617 1162.14 0.01 -4151.42 0.15
24 1.3437 -1034.64 -0.02 -4451.58 -0.05
25 1.3659 -1566.42 -0.13 -4539.33 -0.02
26 1.3680 -1614.56 0.23 -4548.06 -0.05
27 1.3682 -1618.52 0.01 -4548.68 -0.05
28 1.5186 -3281.07 0.00 -5189.88 -0.23
29 2.2338 6270.23 -0.09 -7558.81 -0.00
30 2.2363 6207.42 -0.01 -7567.15 -0.11
31 2.2501 5846.41 0.07 -7613.52 -0.08
32 2.4169 1779.98 -0.02 -8217.11 0.01
33 2.5016 1002.44 -0.03 -8539.17 0.27
34 2.5016 1002.29 -0.17 -8539.60 -0.12
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15RS281 quality flag:2 Type: 13:4EEEEEE SCATNEAR13:4EEEEEE axisobj 66.597 66.699 66.496 ecceobj 0.419 0.420 0.418 incobj 38.526 38.526 38.525 qmin 35.304 37.201 36.946 qmax 98.247 96.521 96.689 amean 66.061 66.158 66.061 amin 65.288 65.380 65.309 amax 67.072 67.211 67.067 emean 0.445 0.414 0.426 emin 0.407 0.392 0.405 emax 0.465 0.437 0.442 imean 37.321 38.608 38.098 imin 36.588 37.927 37.625 imax 38.723 39.292 38.724 excite_mean 0.752 0.749 0.750 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 2.564 2.563 2.565 libcent 0 192.4 -180.0 180.4 libamp 0 76.7 -180.0 124.4 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 166.7 243.7 178.6 kozaiamp 30.9 105.8 43.0