The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15RW245
# Created Fri Nov 22 02:10:26 2024
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting 49 observations of 51
# Arc: 4.11y
# First observation: 2013/10/13
# Last observation: 2017/11/22
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
-0.001055 0.057656 -0.000286 0.013618 0.041008 0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit: 18.16 DOF: 92 RMS: 0.11
# Min/Max residuals: -0.30 0.29
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
2.397715E-05 5.633790E-02 6.087329E-06 1.329725E-02 3.874698E-02 -5.611370E-03
# Covariance matrix:
2.3517E-13 -1.9214E-13 2.4729E-14 -3.3880E-14 -3.0396E-14 -6.1919E-13
-1.9214E-13 2.2584E-13 -3.5590E-14 4.8753E-14 4.1363E-14 8.9117E-13
2.4729E-14 -3.5590E-14 1.4483E-13 -6.1774E-14 -6.3360E-15 -1.5877E-13
-3.3880E-14 4.8753E-14 -6.1774E-14 3.7710E-14 9.1853E-15 2.1739E-13
-3.0396E-14 4.1363E-14 -6.3360E-15 9.1853E-15 1.4905E-13 1.5692E-13
-6.1919E-13 8.9117E-13 -1.5877E-13 2.1739E-13 1.5692E-13 3.9759E-12
# lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0
1.221348 4.834860 -0.253848 0.020671 -0.964365 2456578.592190
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch: 2456570.5000 = 2013/10/05
Mean Anomaly: 356.16538 +/- 0.002
Argument of Peri: 19.81916 +/- 0.006
Long of Asc Node: 0.40053 +/- 0.000
Inclination: 13.31087 +/- 0.000
Eccentricity: 0.53312048 +/- 0.0000
Semi-Major Axis: 56.69367740 +/- 0.0058
Time of Perihelion: 2458231.3097 +/- 0.6
Perihelion: 26.46911669 +/- 0.0037
Aphelion: 86.91823811 +/- 0.0093
Period (y) 426.8843 +/- 0.07
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X 26.64999251 +/- 0.0003
Ecliptic Y 2.51203724 +/- 0.0000
Ecliptic Z 0.55023311 +/- 0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT -0.00075664 +/- 0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT 0.00393011 +/- 0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT 0.00093105 +/- 0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO 26.77377800 +/- 0.0003
Geocenter to KBO 25.80845970 +/- 0.0003
# Hcoef: 8.72
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15RW245. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15RW245) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2013 10 13.091412 00 15 48.61 +03 02 32.6 22.3z 15RW245 W84 C~352k 2013 10 13.105868 00 15 48.53 +03 02 32.3 22.5i 15RW245 W84 C~352k 2013 10 28.065961 00 14 19.55 +02 54 39.1 23.2r 15RW245 W84 C~352k 2013 11 22.064873 00 12 33.17 +02 45 35.4 22.6i 15RW245 W84 C~352k 2013 11 22.123819 00 12 33.00 +02 45 34.9 22.4z 15RW245 W84 C~352k 2014 09 20.48350 00 29 04.355 +05 14 54.72 22.9G 15RW245 F51 C~2rYP 2014 09 20.49507 00 29 04.277 +05 14 54.61 22.7G 15RW245 F51 C~2rYP 2014 09 20.50657 00 29 04.221 +05 14 53.83 23.2G 15RW245 F51 C~2rYP 2014 09 20.51807 00 29 04.127 +05 14 53.77 23.2G 15RW245 F51 C~2rYP 2014 10 28.173542 00 25 00.85 +04 53 30.2 23.7g 15RW245 W84 C~352k 2014 10 28.174919 00 25 00.85 +04 53 30.0 23.1i 15RW245 W84 C~352k 2014 10 29.178785 00 24 55.15 +04 52 59.0 23.2r 15RW245 W84 C~352k 2014 11 13.046019 00 23 40.74 +04 46 14.5 23.0r 15RW245 W84 C~352k 2014 11 19.32091 00 23 15.943 +04 44 01.65 23.6G 15RW245 F51 C~2rYP 2015 09 05.58200 00 41 31.384 +07 21 22.24 22.7G 15RW245 F51 C~2rYP 2015 09 07.58494 00 41 19.838 +07 20 31.93 22.1w 15RW245 568 C~2Gds 2015 09 09.41265 00 41 09.091 +07 19 44.27 22.9r 15RW245 568 C~2Gds 2015 09 09.45371 00 41 08.847 +07 19 43.19 22.9r 15RW245 568 C~2Gds 2015 09 09.49464 00 41 08.599 +07 19 42.07 23.1r 15RW245 568 C~2Gds 2015 09 10.51893 00 41 02.458 +07 19 14.52 22.3w 15RW245 568 C~2Gds 2015 09 18.48318 00 40 12.742 +07 15 23.35 22.6w 15RW245 568 C~2Gds 2015 10 08.37093 00 37 59.937 +07 04 17.19 22.4w 15RW245 568 C~2Gds 2015 10 08.42353 00 37 59.574 +07 04 15.33 23.1w 15RW245 568 C~2Gds 2015 10 09.34050 00 37 53.403 +07 03 42.88 23.0w 15RW245 568 C~2Gds 2015 10 12.40518 00 37 32.849 +07 01 54.81 23.6G 15RW245 F51 C~2rYP 2015 10 13.39807 00 37 26.214 +07 01 19.75 23.4G 15RW245 F51 C~2rYP 2015 10 23.32398 00 36 21.915 +06 55 33.86 22.8G 15RW245 F51 C~2rYP 2015 11 01.31764 00 35 28.024 +06 50 38.14 22.9G 15RW245 F51 C~2rYP 2015 11 02.31807 00 35 22.386 +06 50 06.07 22.3G 15RW245 F51 C~2rYP 2015 11 02.32980 00 35 22.298 +06 50 06.06 22.9G 15RW245 F51 C~2rYP 2015 11 02.34169 00 35 22.230 +06 50 05.65 23.6G 15RW245 F51 C~2rYP 2015 11 02.35354 00 35 22.162 +06 50 05.12 22.8G 15RW245 F51 C~2rYP 2015 11 10.46704 00 34 39.393 +06 46 05.79 22.9w 15RW245 568 C~2Gds 2015 12 08.26533 00 33 06.815 +06 37 20.74 22.7w 15RW245 568 C~2Gds 2016 01 01.32759 00 33 10.444 +06 38 05.75 23.4w 15RW245 568 C~2Gds 2016 01 02.27875 00 33 12.313 +06 38 18.40 22.9w 15RW245 568 C~2Gds 2016 09 05.57903 00 52 28.055 +09 19 21.82 15RW245 568 C~2Gds 2016 09 06.52814 00 52 22.743 +09 19 00.63 15RW245 568 C~2Gds 2016 09 06.57023 00 52 22.499 +09 18 59.72 15RW245 568 C~2Gds 2016 09 12.55386 00 51 47.462 +09 16 33.97 22.9G 15RW245 F51 C~2rYP 2016 09 27.48394 00 50 11.393 +09 09 13.83 23.0w 15RW245 568 C~2Gds 2016 10 27.29136 00 46 52.499 +08 52 01.99 15RW245 568 C~2Gds 2016 10 27.35723 00 46 52.083 +08 51 59.63 15RW245 568 C~2Gds 2016 11 04.30636 00 46 04.740 +08 47 35.34 15RW245 568 C~2Gds 2016 11 04.36545 00 46 04.399 +08 47 33.49 15RW245 568 C~2Gds 2016 12 29.29848 00 43 43.257 +08 33 12.81 15RW245 568 C~2Gds 2017 01 02.33380 00 43 49.128 +08 33 44.71 15RW245 568 C~2Gds 2017 10 22.45304 00 58 35.120 +10 53 25.25 22.9G 15RW245 F51 C~2rYP 2017 10 22.46468 00 58 35.056 +10 53 25.00 22.6G 15RW245 F51 C~2rYP 2017 10 22.47631 00 58 34.993 +10 53 24.34 22.5G 15RW245 F51 C~2rYP 2017 11 22.22934 00 55 40.640 +10 36 51.02 23.0G 15RW245 F51 C~2rYP
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 -0.20 0.00 -0.14
2 0.0000 -1.22 0.06 0.20 -0.04
3 0.0410 -1412.45 0.02 95.17 0.23
4 0.1094 -3091.22 -0.00 229.63 -0.04
5 0.1096 -3093.76 0.18 230.18 0.19
6 0.9374 14096.40 -0.08 2595.66 -0.07
7 0.9375 14095.28 0.02 2596.02 0.19
8 0.9375 14094.20 0.15 2595.63 -0.30
9 0.9375 14092.88 0.04 2596.13 0.09
10 1.0406 10232.51 -0.12 2846.39 0.14
11 1.0406 10232.43 -0.07 2846.21 -0.05
12 1.0434 10141.69 -0.01 2851.30 -0.07
13 1.0841 8957.50 -0.05 2918.17 -0.04
14 1.1012 8563.75 ( -0.07) 2942.38 ( 0.49)
15 1.8959 27455.65 0.29 5260.07 -0.06
16 1.9014 27274.66 0.02 5280.16 -0.04
17 1.9064 27105.89 -0.03 5298.09 0.07
18 1.9065 27102.06 0.05 5298.50 0.05
19 1.9066 27098.16 0.06 5298.90 0.01
20 1.9095 27001.62 0.00 5308.86 0.04
21 1.9313 26217.18 -0.04 5382.13 0.02
22 1.9857 24105.68 -0.08 5534.27 -0.02
23 1.9859 24099.90 -0.10 5534.65 -0.02
24 1.9884 24001.30 -0.15 5540.39 -0.14
25 1.9968 23672.97 0.16 5559.56 -0.12
26 1.9995 23566.94 -0.06 5565.60 -0.04
27 2.0266 22537.49 0.17 5618.77 -0.15
28 2.0513 21673.09 ( 0.11) 5658.41 ( 0.47)
29 2.0540 21582.25 0.05 5661.53 -0.23
30 2.0540 21581.03 -0.09 5662.03 0.22
31 2.0541 21579.92 -0.10 5662.05 0.18
32 2.0541 21578.77 -0.16 5661.95 0.03
33 2.0763 20891.44 -0.04 5689.44 0.05
34 2.1524 19402.16 0.03 5743.38 -0.08
35 2.2183 19470.18 -0.04 5763.86 -0.03
36 2.2209 19501.04 0.05 5764.65 0.05
37 2.8980 39499.00 -0.02 8120.75 -0.02
38 2.9006 39415.25 -0.03 8131.01 -0.03
39 2.9007 39411.43 -0.03 8131.54 0.02
40 2.9171 38856.94 0.11 8193.70 0.02
41 2.9580 37322.98 -0.07 8326.94 0.01
42 3.0396 34110.42 -0.05 8494.39 0.04
43 3.0397 34103.64 -0.07 8494.56 -0.08
44 3.0615 33333.65 0.03 8517.95 0.03
45 3.0617 33328.13 0.07 8518.17 0.06
46 3.2121 31008.24 0.14 8522.35 -0.07
47 3.2231 31103.05 0.12 8518.45 0.03
48 4.0256 46991.25 -0.30 11404.80 0.09
49 4.0257 46990.23 -0.02 11404.92 0.16
50 4.0257 46989.06 0.11 11404.64 -0.16
51 4.1099 44096.60 0.12 11437.10 0.01
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15RW245 quality flag:3 Type: CENTAURR CENTAURR CENTAURR axisobj 57.167 57.184 57.150 ecceobj 0.537 0.537 0.537 incobj 13.281 13.281 13.281 qmin 26.261 26.153 26.281 qmax 89.599 91.207 91.049 amean 56.210 56.813 56.759 amin 52.980 54.690 54.740 amax 58.227 59.266 59.223 emean 0.522 0.527 0.526 emin 0.489 0.504 0.509 emax 0.543 0.543 0.543 imean 14.853 14.588 14.886 imin 13.748 13.741 13.763 imax 16.228 15.605 16.121 excite_mean 0.582 0.584 0.585 fracstop 0.024 0.021 0.025 cjmean 2.781 2.783 2.782 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 28.6 28.4 28.0 kozaiamp 10.2 7.6 7.9