The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15RY245
# Created Sun Dec 22 02:10:27 2024
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting 27 observations of 27
# Arc: 1.47y
# First observation: 2015/07/14
# Last observation: 2017/01/02
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
-0.000153 0.040975 0.000029 0.003684 0.029432 0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit: 7.71 DOF: 48 RMS: 0.09
# Min/Max residuals: -0.36 0.20
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
2.197091E-05 4.073058E-02 1.745868E-06 3.707146E-03 2.939824E-02 1.320074E-02
# Covariance matrix:
2.7066E-13 4.8184E-13 -2.6489E-14 1.0487E-13 4.5600E-13 1.7247E-11
4.8184E-13 3.2475E-12 -1.3625E-13 5.9780E-13 2.1032E-12 9.8210E-11
-2.6489E-14 -1.3625E-13 1.2378E-13 -1.3580E-13 -9.3835E-14 -4.3625E-12
1.0487E-13 5.9780E-13 -1.3580E-13 3.0542E-13 3.9710E-13 1.9641E-11
4.5600E-13 2.1032E-12 -9.3835E-14 3.9710E-13 1.5090E-12 6.5260E-11
1.7247E-11 9.8210E-11 -4.3625E-12 1.9641E-11 6.5260E-11 3.2259E-09
# lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0
2.994263 12.728256 1.004900 0.008463 -0.159863 2457218.059109
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch: 2457210.5000 = 2015/07/07
Mean Anomaly: 1.46512 +/- 0.020
Argument of Peri: 354.44740 +/- 0.124
Long of Asc Node: 341.58225 +/- 0.003
Inclination: 6.04078 +/- 0.001
Eccentricity: 0.85783884 +/- 0.0014
Semi-Major Axis: 220.23018215 +/- 2.0164
Time of Perihelion: 2452352.2100 +/- 12.2
Perihelion: 31.30817786 +/- 0.4222
Aphelion: 409.15218643 +/- 3.7589
Period (y) 3268.3116 +/- 44.89
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X 33.50837332 +/- 0.0014
Ecliptic Y 6.53985166 +/- 0.0003
Ecliptic Z 1.77695139 +/- 0.0001
Ecliptic XDOT 0.00034191 +/- 0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT 0.00396025 +/- 0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT 0.00040905 +/- 0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO 34.18681469 +/- 0.0014
Geocenter to KBO 34.01564017 +/- 0.0014
# Hcoef: 8.90
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15RY245. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15RY245) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2015 07 14.55832 00 42 07.565 +07 47 04.10 24.4r 15RY245 568 C~2Gu0 2015 07 19.53712 00 42 07.409 +07 47 42.89 24.6r 15RY245 568 C~2Gu0 2015 08 13.50040 00 41 28.901 +07 46 48.93 24.9r 15RY245 568 C~2Gu0 2015 08 20.43842 00 41 07.954 +07 45 23.78 24.5r 15RY245 568 C~2Gu0 2015 08 20.48764 00 41 07.792 +07 45 23.09 24.8r 15RY245 568 C~2Gu0 2015 09 07.58494 00 39 56.463 +07 39 37.93 24.1w 15RY245 568 C~2Gu0 2015 09 09.41265 00 39 48.190 +07 38 54.48 24.1r 15RY245 568 C~2Gu0 2015 09 09.45371 00 39 47.993 +07 38 53.48 24.8r 15RY245 568 C~2Gu0 2015 09 09.49464 00 39 47.799 +07 38 52.51 24.7r 15RY245 568 C~2Gu0 2015 09 10.51893 00 39 43.065 +07 38 27.51 24.1w 15RY245 568 C~2Gu0 2015 09 18.48318 00 39 04.809 +07 35 00.49 23.4w 15RY245 568 C~2Gu0 2015 10 08.37093 00 37 22.949 +07 25 12.78 23.9w 15RY245 568 C~2Gu0 2015 10 08.42353 00 37 22.676 +07 25 10.93 24.0w 15RY245 568 C~2Gu0 2015 10 09.34051 00 37 17.955 +07 24 42.69 23.9w 15RY245 568 C~2Gu0 2015 12 08.26533 00 33 38.815 +07 00 18.36 24.2w 15RY245 568 C~2Gu0 2016 01 01.32759 00 33 41.933 +06 59 08.96 24.8w 15RY245 568 C~2Gu0 2016 01 02.27875 00 33 43.379 +06 59 15.06 24.4w 15RY245 568 C~2Gu0 2016 09 05.57903 00 48 27.011 +08 46 56.71 15RY245 568 C~2Gu0 2016 09 06.52814 00 48 22.925 +08 46 36.36 15RY245 568 C~2Gu0 2016 09 06.57023 00 48 22.742 +08 46 35.47 15RY245 568 C~2Gu0 2016 09 27.48394 00 46 42.643 +08 37 37.76 24.9w 15RY245 568 C~2Gu0 2016 10 27.29136 00 44 12.650 +08 22 37.90 15RY245 568 C~2Gu0 2016 10 27.35723 00 44 12.355 +08 22 35.77 15RY245 568 C~2Gu0 2016 11 04.30636 00 43 36.882 +08 18 46.84 15RY245 568 C~2Gu0 2016 11 04.36545 00 43 36.631 +08 18 45.18 15RY245 568 C~2Gu0 2016 12 29.29848 00 41 52.958 +08 04 58.39 24.7w 15RY245 568 C~2Gu0 2017 01 02.33380 00 41 57.692 +08 05 10.59 24.5w 15RY245 568 C~2Gu0
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.05
2 0.0136 13.06 -0.13 36.60 -0.04
3 0.0820 -534.63 0.06 211.17 0.03
4 0.1010 -854.41 -0.02 254.89 0.10
5 0.1011 -856.90 0.05 255.20 0.08
6 0.1507 -1967.61 -0.02 353.87 0.05
7 0.1557 -2097.80 0.11 362.23 -0.05
8 0.1558 -2100.88 0.04 362.46 -0.04
9 0.1559 -2103.92 0.02 362.70 -0.01
10 0.1587 -2178.47 -0.05 367.36 -0.02
11 0.1805 -2782.93 0.08 400.59 0.13
12 0.2349 -4407.30 -0.05 456.75 0.08
13 0.2351 -4411.76 -0.08 456.65 -0.16
14 0.2376 -4487.47 0.03 458.38 -0.03
15 0.4017 -8065.21 0.01 401.70 -0.06
16 0.4675 -8050.04 -0.06 319.52 -0.36
17 0.4701 -8027.82 0.03 316.60 0.13
18 1.1472 6589.45 -0.09 1113.24 -0.02
19 1.1498 6525.66 0.00 1117.99 0.08
20 1.1499 6522.81 0.07 1118.22 0.09
21 1.2072 4945.05 -0.01 1199.25 -0.03
22 1.2888 2544.27 -0.12 1237.59 0.20
23 1.2890 2539.40 0.06 1237.34 -0.08
24 1.3107 1965.26 -0.01 1232.21 -0.01
25 1.3109 1961.19 0.06 1232.14 -0.05
26 1.4613 221.11 -0.06 1073.46 0.17
27 1.4723 290.57 0.08 1057.15 -0.24
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15RY245 quality flag:3 Type: CENTAURS CENTAURS CENTAURS axisobj 237.045 245.830 228.943 ecceobj 0.868 0.873 0.863 incobj 6.025 6.025 6.024 qmin 29.085 28.753 29.240 qmax 569.309 641.737 525.871 amean 240.314 257.765 223.154 amin 191.600 212.084 179.170 amax 300.417 336.571 278.572 emean 0.869 0.878 0.859 emin 0.836 0.847 0.821 emax 0.900 0.910 0.888 imean 5.840 5.367 5.610 imin 4.123 3.926 4.027 imax 7.265 7.308 7.303 excite_mean 0.875 0.883 0.865 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 2.896 2.893 2.901 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 127.8 105.0 130.4 kozaiamp 180.0 180.0 180.0