The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15RY280
# Created Fri Nov 22 02:10:28 2024
# Orbit generated by ELGB
# -->Covariance matrix from a Bernstein fit
# Fitting 35 observations of 35
# Arc: 5.14y
# First observation: 2015/06/23
# Last observation: 2020/08/12
# Chi-squared of fit: 10.69 DOF: 64 RMS: 0.10
# Min/Max residuals: -0.29 0.33
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
1.536514E-05 2.314037E-02 4.791327E-06 6.958456E-03 2.381479E-02 -1.878471E-03
# Covariance matrix:
1.4020E-13 -1.1873E-14 -6.2876E-15 3.9798E-15 9.3401E-14 1.1891E-13
-1.1873E-14 2.4766E-13 -4.0642E-14 7.2468E-14 1.6830E-13 2.0476E-12
-6.2876E-15 -4.0642E-14 7.2711E-14 -3.9898E-14 -3.5143E-14 -3.7853E-13
3.9798E-15 7.2468E-14 -3.9898E-14 5.2267E-14 5.4656E-14 6.7668E-13
9.3401E-14 1.6830E-13 -3.5143E-14 5.4656E-14 2.2012E-13 1.5514E-12
1.1891E-13 2.0476E-12 -3.7853E-13 6.7668E-13 1.5514E-12 1.9118E-11
# lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0
3.087938 9.981195 1.005811 -0.007766 0.145654 2457197.024748
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch: 2457196.5000 = 2015/06/23
Mean Anomaly: 318.69477 +/- 0.035
Argument of Peri: 63.77751 +/- 0.052
Long of Asc Node: 358.50786 +/- 0.000
Inclination: 17.16053 +/- 0.000
Eccentricity: 0.13825147 +/- 0.0002
Semi-Major Axis: 46.20121819 +/- 0.0038
Time of Perihelion: 2470357.2639 +/- 16.7
Perihelion: 39.81383183 +/- 0.0080
Aphelion: 52.58860455 +/- 0.0085
Period (y) 314.0424 +/- 0.04
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X 41.32227305 +/- 0.0008
Ecliptic Y 6.25208289 +/- 0.0001
Ecliptic Z 2.26224262 +/- 0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT -0.00071838 +/- 0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT 0.00256897 +/- 0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT 0.00078724 +/- 0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO 41.85382011 +/- 0.0008
Geocenter to KBO 41.99077510 +/- 0.0008
# Hcoef: 7.58
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15RY280. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15RY280) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2015 06 23.52397 00 31 48.360 +06 47 31.77 24.1r 15RY280 568 C~2nvs 2015 07 19.58736 00 31 54.368 +06 52 10.02 23.8r 15RY280 568 C~2nvs 2015 08 13.48399 00 31 07.388 +06 50 48.30 23.6r 15RY280 568 C~2nvs 2015 08 13.53744 00 31 07.244 +06 50 47.77 23.9r 15RY280 568 C~2nvs 2015 08 19.54662 00 30 49.077 +06 49 40.07 23.6r 15RY280 568 C~2nvs 2015 08 19.58802 00 30 48.916 +06 49 39.65 23.9r 15RY280 568 C~2nvs 2015 08 19.61668 00 30 48.806 +06 49 39.23 23.9r 15RY280 568 C~2nvs 2015 08 20.42114 00 30 46.230 +06 49 28.78 24.0r 15RY280 568 C~2nvs 2015 08 20.47055 00 30 46.060 +06 49 28.15 23.8r 15RY280 568 C~2nvs 2015 09 07.56844 00 29 38.040 +06 44 24.04 15RY280 568 C~2nvs 2015 09 09.39585 00 29 30.354 +06 43 46.68 23.7r 15RY280 568 C~2nvs 2015 09 09.43729 00 29 30.176 +06 43 45.81 23.8r 15RY280 568 C~2nvs 2015 09 09.47825 00 29 29.999 +06 43 44.93 23.8r 15RY280 568 C~2nvs 2015 09 10.50253 00 29 25.630 +06 43 23.53 24.0w 15RY280 568 C~2nvs 2015 09 18.46210 00 28 50.621 +06 40 26.89 24.1w 15RY280 568 C~2nvs 2015 10 09.31945 00 27 14.716 +06 31 49.42 23.9w 15RY280 568 C~2nvs 2015 11 10.44543 00 25 03.574 +06 18 58.71 24.4w 15RY280 568 C~2nvs 2015 11 10.47307 00 25 03.442 +06 18 58.03 24.2w 15RY280 568 C~2nvs 2015 11 15.26832 00 24 48.301 +06 17 23.89 24.1w 15RY280 568 C~2nvs 2015 12 08.24411 00 23 59.465 +06 12 06.23 23.8w 15RY280 568 C~2nvs 2016 09 05.59522 00 34 06.110 +07 39 36.11 24.0w 15RY280 568 C~2nvs 2016 09 06.54431 00 34 02.210 +07 39 17.91 23.9w 15RY280 568 C~2nvs 2016 09 06.58642 00 34 02.031 +07 39 17.11 24.1w 15RY280 568 C~2nvs 2016 09 27.50093 00 32 29.026 +07 31 29.02 23.8w 15RY280 568 C~2nvs 2016 10 30.35674 00 30 02.657 +07 17 38.34 23.8w 15RY280 568 C~2nvs 2016 11 03.31592 00 29 47.321 +07 16 05.11 23.9w 15RY280 568 C~2nvs 2016 11 03.36828 00 29 47.122 +07 16 04.00 23.9w 15RY280 568 C~2nvs 2016 11 03.37989 00 29 47.076 +07 16 03.76 24.1w 15RY280 568 C~2nvs 2016 11 03.43780 00 29 46.848 +07 16 02.27 24.0w 15RY280 568 C~2nvs 2016 12 25.22839 00 28 09.073 +07 05 00.12 24.1w 15RY280 568 C~2nvs 2017 01 02.27514 00 28 14.822 +07 05 22.84 24.0w 15RY280 568 C~2nvs 2017 01 29.23654 00 29 16.336 +07 11 17.61 23.3w 15RY280 568 C~2nvs 2017 01 30.22500 00 29 19.748 +07 11 38.39 24.1w 15RY280 568 C~2nvs 2020 08 12.377560 00 53 22.723 +11 23 16.59 23.7G 15RY280 G37 C~4463 2020 08 12.448060 00 53 22.549 +11 23 16.21 15RY280 G37 C~4463
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 0.01 0.00 -0.03
2 0.0714 0.00 -0.09 0.00 -0.01
3 0.1395 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.17
4 0.1397 0.00 0.19 0.00 0.16
5 0.1561 0.00 0.30 0.00 -0.01
6 0.1562 0.00 -0.06 0.00 0.09
7 0.1563 0.00 -0.29 0.00 0.04
8 0.1585 0.00 0.01 0.00 -0.06
9 0.1586 0.00 -0.06 0.00 -0.05
10 0.2082 0.00 0.07 0.00 -0.03
11 0.2132 0.00 -0.03 0.00 -0.01
12 0.2133 0.00 -0.01 0.00 -0.02
13 0.2134 0.00 -0.01 0.00 -0.05
14 0.2162 0.00 -0.00 0.00 -0.01
15 0.2380 0.00 0.03 0.00 -0.04
16 0.2951 0.00 -0.07 0.00 -0.03
17 0.3831 0.00 0.33 0.00 0.03
18 0.3832 0.00 -0.26 0.00 -0.08
19 0.3963 0.00 -0.01 0.00 -0.01
20 0.4592 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.02
21 1.2048 0.00 -0.07 0.00 0.00
22 1.2074 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.04
23 1.2076 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.06
24 1.2648 0.00 -0.01 0.00 -0.02
25 1.3548 0.00 -0.02 0.00 0.17
26 1.3656 0.00 0.02 0.00 -0.02
27 1.3658 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.07
28 1.3658 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.10
29 1.3660 0.00 -0.04 0.00 -0.05
30 1.5077 0.00 0.07 0.00 0.01
31 1.5298 0.00 -0.00 0.00 -0.00
32 1.6036 0.00 -0.03 0.00 -0.14
33 1.6063 0.00 0.10 0.00 -0.23
34 5.1385 0.00 -0.02 0.00 0.08
35 5.1387 0.00 -0.01 0.00 -0.05
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15RY280 quality flag:3 Type: SCATEXTD SCATEXTD SCATEXTD axisobj 46.691 46.691 46.691 ecceobj 0.144 0.144 0.144 incobj 17.078 17.078 17.078 qmin 39.285 39.290 39.285 qmax 53.785 53.818 53.794 amean 46.392 46.392 46.392 amin 46.011 45.996 46.015 amax 46.813 46.817 46.812 emean 0.137 0.137 0.137 emin 0.125 0.125 0.125 emax 0.150 0.150 0.150 imean 17.559 17.559 17.559 imin 17.173 17.175 17.172 imax 17.811 17.805 17.808 excite_mean 0.331 0.331 0.331 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 2.993 2.993 2.993 libcent 0 -180.0 178.7 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 175.2 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 173.7 173.7 173.7 kozaiamp 180.0 180.0 180.0