The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15SA57 # Created Sun Dec 22 02:10:30 2024 # Orbit generated by ELGB # -->Covariance matrix from a Bernstein fit # Fitting 102 observations of 102 # Arc: 8.30y # First observation: 2014/10/05 # Last observation: 2023/01/22 # Chi-squared of fit: 66.07 DOF: 198 RMS: 0.14 # Min/Max residuals: -0.58 0.47 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 2.803771E-05 1.199013E-01 2.007266E-05 8.182186E-02 6.529695E-02 -5.776005E-03 # Covariance matrix: 7.8812E-14 -2.0247E-14 1.3744E-14 -9.5364E-15 2.1234E-14 -9.6054E-15 -2.0247E-14 2.1273E-14 -1.6116E-14 1.3964E-14 1.0634E-14 1.4888E-14 1.3744E-14 -1.6116E-14 5.0110E-14 -1.7091E-14 -6.7283E-15 -1.1986E-14 -9.5364E-15 1.3964E-14 -1.7091E-14 1.1201E-14 8.0159E-15 1.0476E-14 2.1234E-14 1.0634E-14 -6.7283E-15 8.0159E-15 3.2358E-14 9.0639E-15 -9.6054E-15 1.4888E-14 -1.1986E-14 1.0476E-14 9.0639E-15 1.1191E-14 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 -34.819004 75.442008 0.896647 -0.255441 -0.367519 2456936.097988 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2456936.5000 = 2014/10/06 Mean Anomaly: 359.96737 +/- 0.000 Argument of Peri: 317.61636 +/- 0.000 Long of Asc Node: 112.97792 +/- 0.000 Inclination: 45.33771 +/- 0.000 Eccentricity: 0.97071595 +/- 0.0000 Semi-Major Axis: 533.14022793 +/- 0.0013 Time of Perihelion: 2457344.0013 +/- 15.9 Perihelion: 15.61250738 +/- 0.0052 Aphelion: 1050.66794848 +/- 0.0057 Period (y) 12310.3495 +/- 0.04 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X 4.13779675 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic Y 12.37843915 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic Z -8.74421057 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic XDOT -0.00442812 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic YDOT 0.00296258 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic ZDOT 0.00295488 +/- 0.0000 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 15.71017663 +/- 0.0000 Geocenter to KBO 15.31469935 +/- 0.0000 # Hcoef: 9.88
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15SA57. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15SA57) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2014 10 05.597210 05 11 17.117 -11 59 35.36 21.2G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2014 10 05.606480 05 11 17.096 -11 59 36.00 21.6G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2014 10 05.615755 05 11 17.019 -11 59 36.95 21.5G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2014 10 05.625039 05 11 17.019 -11 59 37.31 21.4G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2015 09 23.585665 05 36 48.056 -06 21 21.43 21.6G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2015 09 23.597305 05 36 48.088 -06 21 22.21 21.7G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2015 09 23.608974 05 36 48.114 -06 21 23.02 21.6G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2015 09 23.620646 05 36 48.132 -06 21 23.78 21.6G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2015 09 24.583744 05 36 50.369 -06 22 21.41 21.7G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2015 09 24.595433 05 36 50.388 -06 22 22.31 22.3G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2015 09 24.607081 05 36 50.425 -06 22 22.84 21.8G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2015 09 24.618730 05 36 50.433 -06 22 23.48 22.0G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2015 11 16.521758 05 33 04.366 -07 01 40.79 21.9G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2015 11 16.533505 05 33 04.237 -07 01 41.11 21.6G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2015 11 16.545251 05 33 04.113 -07 01 41.21 21.8G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2015 11 16.556983 05 33 04.017 -07 01 41.31 21.8G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2015 12 13.477049 05 28 01.482 -06 55 48.46 22.0G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2015 12 13.490127 05 28 01.317 -06 55 48.00 21.9G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2015 12 13.503198 05 28 01.162 -06 55 47.29 21.7G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2015 12 13.516293 05 28 01.000 -06 55 46.74 21.8G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2015 12 14.428173 05 27 50.043 -06 55 08.41 21.7G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2015 12 14.451979 05 27 49.758 -06 55 07.37 21.8G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2015 12 14.463865 05 27 49.600 -06 55 06.94 22.0G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2016 01 09.377698 05 22 53.539 -06 24 36.63 22.1G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2016 01 09.389517 05 22 53.407 -06 24 35.45 21.9G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2016 01 09.401355 05 22 53.285 -06 24 34.17 21.6G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2016 01 09.413203 05 22 53.168 -06 24 33.19 21.6G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2016 01 11.351130 05 22 33.669 -06 21 21.49 21.5G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2016 01 11.351780 05 22 33.661 -06 21 21.47 21.4G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2016 01 11.363753 05 22 33.548 -06 21 20.30 21.5G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2016 01 11.364401 05 22 33.527 -06 21 19.86 21.7G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2016 01 11.376327 05 22 33.412 -06 21 18.90 21.4G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2016 01 11.376971 05 22 33.403 -06 21 18.89 21.8G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2016 01 11.388917 05 22 33.284 -06 21 17.65 21.4G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2016 01 11.389562 05 22 33.274 -06 21 17.64 21.8G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2016 01 12.276559 05 22 24.574 -06 19 47.62 21.9G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2016 01 12.290195 05 22 24.424 -06 19 46.02 21.7G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2016 01 12.303860 05 22 24.294 -06 19 44.69 21.9G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2016 01 12.317511 05 22 24.153 -06 19 43.29 21.6G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2016 01 30.321469 05 19 57.122 -05 44 26.70 21.9G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2016 01 30.334781 05 19 57.035 -05 44 24.89 21.7G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2016 01 30.348073 05 19 56.945 -05 44 23.40 21.8G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2016 01 30.361393 05 19 56.853 -05 44 21.54 22.2G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2016 02 12.230719 05 18 54.259 -05 14 36.07 22.7G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2016 02 12.242564 05 18 54.228 -05 14 34.38 21.9G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2016 02 12.254517 05 18 54.188 -05 14 32.55 21.5G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2016 02 12.266420 05 18 54.142 -05 14 30.95 22.1G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2016 03 02.239246 05 18 37.694 -04 26 33.23 21.3G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2016 03 02.253214 05 18 37.724 -04 26 31.42 21.9G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2016 03 02.267117 05 18 37.736 -04 26 29.54 21.8G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2016 03 02.281016 05 18 37.755 -04 26 27.33 22.1G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2016 12 23.423062 05 52 05.079 -01 07 10.03 22.0G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2016 12 23.434002 05 52 04.934 -01 07 09.41 21.5G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2017 01 20.404135 05 46 58.929 -00 28 40.68 21.6G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2017 01 20.415914 05 46 58.821 -00 28 39.39 21.6G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2017 01 20.427705 05 46 58.710 -00 28 38.26 21.6G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2017 01 20.439492 05 46 58.601 -00 28 36.98 21.9G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2017 01 27.336232 05 45 58.970 -00 16 09.36 21.4G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2017 01 27.348062 05 45 58.871 -00 16 08.00 21.0G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2017 01 27.359917 05 45 58.767 -00 16 06.62 21.2G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2017 01 27.371771 05 45 58.673 -00 16 05.32 21.2G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2020 01 30.277532 07 00 04.994 +15 20 36.86 22.0G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2020 01 30.290373 07 00 04.853 +15 20 37.70 22.2G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2020 01 30.303354 07 00 04.724 +15 20 38.82 22.9G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2020 10 22.554687 07 35 58.014 +18 05 30.16 22.6G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2020 10 22.567671 07 35 58.016 +18 05 30.51 22.8G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2020 10 22.580662 07 35 58.044 +18 05 30.92 22.1G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2020 11 16.498447 07 35 23.637 +18 21 55.84 21.9G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2020 11 16.510127 07 35 23.573 +18 21 56.33 22.3G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2020 11 16.521830 07 35 23.509 +18 21 56.99 22.1G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2020 11 16.533535 07 35 23.459 +18 21 57.75 22.1G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2020 12 24.534164 07 30 22.999 +18 59 41.73 21.9G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2020 12 24.574758 07 30 22.572 +18 59 44.33 22.0G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2021 01 15.482351 07 26 17.227 +19 25 54.57 22.2G 15SA57 F52 C~7BEy 2021 02 09.253561 07 21 57.505 +19 55 47.73 22.2G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2021 02 09.266349 07 21 57.365 +19 55 48.43 22.4G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2021 02 13.248943 07 21 22.200 +20 00 25.90 22.1G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2021 02 13.276116 07 21 21.954 +20 00 28.11 22.2G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2021 02 13.289743 07 21 21.836 +20 00 28.92 22.5G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2021 11 08.551165 07 57 49.177 +22 00 19.56 22.4G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2021 11 08.562829 07 57 49.173 +22 00 20.21 23.1G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2021 11 08.574503 07 57 49.125 +22 00 20.65 22.5G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2021 11 08.586160 07 57 49.132 +22 00 21.04 22.7G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2022 01 07.329843 07 50 47.328 +23 07 22.67 22.3G 15SA57 F52 C~7BEy 2022 01 07.341852 07 50 47.217 +23 07 23.63 22.0G 15SA57 F52 C~7BEy 2022 01 07.353891 07 50 47.063 +23 07 23.98 22.6G 15SA57 F52 C~7BEy 2022 01 07.365943 07 50 46.952 +23 07 25.27 22.5G 15SA57 F52 C~7BEy 2022 02 05.300103 07 45 31.334 +23 41 53.27 22.5G 15SA57 F52 C~7BEy 2022 02 05.312786 07 45 31.202 +23 41 54.35 23.1G 15SA57 F52 C~7BEy 2022 09 29.619324 08 15 53.460 +24 46 00.62 22.7G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2022 09 29.623500 08 15 53.501 +24 46 00.86 23.0G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2022 10 28.596041 08 18 40.815 +25 04 25.09 22.1G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2022 10 30.556789 08 18 45.390 +25 06 04.34 22.3G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2022 11 01.565807 08 18 49.148 +25 07 49.07 22.9G 15SA57 F52 C~7BEy 2022 11 01.577806 08 18 49.193 +25 07 49.95 22.7G 15SA57 F52 C~7BEy 2022 11 01.589870 08 18 49.217 +25 07 50.66 22.5G 15SA57 F52 C~7BEy 2022 12 01.494385 08 17 55.863 +25 39 33.04 22.3G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2022 12 01.532144 08 17 55.676 +25 39 35.07 20.4G 15SA57 F51 C~7BEy 2023 01 22.353078 08 10 12.566 +26 45 55.67 22.2G 15SA57 F52 C~7BEy 2023 01 22.364701 08 10 12.443 +26 45 56.52 22.5G 15SA57 F52 C~7BEy 2023 01 22.376446 08 10 12.317 +26 45 57.34 22.4G 15SA57 F52 C~7BEy 2023 01 22.388097 08 10 12.193 +26 45 58.09 22.3G 15SA57 F52 C~7BEy
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 0.21 0.00 -0.03
2 0.0000 0.00 0.24 0.00 0.02
3 0.0001 0.00 -0.58 0.00 -0.24
4 0.0001 0.00 -0.25 0.00 0.10
5 0.9664 0.00 -0.10 0.00 0.24
6 0.9665 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.15
7 0.9665 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.05
8 0.9665 0.00 -0.13 0.00 -0.01
9 0.9692 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.10
10 0.9692 0.00 -0.07 0.00 -0.10
11 0.9692 0.00 0.14 0.00 0.07
12 0.9693 0.00 -0.08 0.00 0.13
13 1.1141 0.00 0.07 0.00 0.03
14 1.1141 0.00 -0.09 0.00 -0.14
15 1.1142 0.00 -0.19 0.00 -0.09
16 1.1142 0.00 0.14 0.00 -0.04
17 1.1879 0.00 0.11 0.00 -0.05
18 1.1879 0.00 0.04 0.00 -0.13
19 1.1880 0.00 0.12 0.00 0.04
20 1.1880 0.00 0.09 0.00 0.05
21 1.1905 0.00 0.07 0.00 0.00
22 1.1906 0.00 0.18 0.00 0.02
23 1.1906 0.00 -0.00 0.00 -0.07
24 1.2615 0.00 0.07 0.00 -0.04
25 1.2616 0.00 -0.06 0.00 -0.01
26 1.2616 0.00 -0.03 0.00 0.12
27 1.2616 0.00 0.06 0.00 -0.05
28 1.2670 0.00 -0.01 0.00 -0.01
29 1.2670 0.00 -0.03 0.00 -0.05
30 1.2670 0.00 0.09 0.00 -0.09
31 1.2670 0.00 -0.12 0.00 0.29
32 1.2670 0.00 -0.03 0.00 0.04
33 1.2670 0.00 -0.07 0.00 -0.01
34 1.2671 0.00 -0.03 0.00 0.02
35 1.2671 0.00 -0.09 0.00 -0.03
36 1.2695 0.00 0.10 0.00 -0.15
37 1.2695 0.00 -0.10 0.00 0.06
38 1.2696 0.00 -0.00 0.00 -0.01
39 1.2696 0.00 -0.07 0.00 -0.01
40 1.3189 0.00 0.08 0.00 0.03
41 1.3189 0.00 0.09 0.00 0.09
42 1.3190 0.00 0.06 0.00 -0.16
43 1.3190 0.00 -0.01 0.00 -0.05
44 1.3542 0.00 -0.18 0.00 0.01
45 1.3543 0.00 -0.02 0.00 -0.02
46 1.3543 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.07
47 1.3543 0.00 -0.05 0.00 -0.06
48 1.4063 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.43
49 1.4063 0.00 0.23 0.00 0.06
50 1.4064 0.00 0.12 0.00 -0.23
51 1.4064 0.00 0.11 0.00 -0.19
52 2.2172 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.03
53 2.2172 0.00 -0.15 0.00 0.00
54 2.2938 0.00 -0.03 0.00 -0.02
55 2.2938 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.04
56 2.2939 0.00 0.03 0.00 -0.05
57 2.2939 0.00 0.07 0.00 0.00
58 2.3128 0.00 0.08 0.00 -0.00
59 2.3128 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.02
60 2.3128 0.00 -0.03 0.00 0.07
61 2.3129 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.03
62 5.3188 0.00 0.01 0.00 -0.00
63 5.3188 0.00 -0.13 0.00 -0.18
64 5.3188 0.00 -0.08 0.00 -0.08
65 6.0478 0.00 0.14 0.00 -0.01
66 6.0478 0.00 -0.11 0.00 -0.07
67 6.0479 0.00 0.03 0.00 -0.07
68 6.1161 0.00 0.24 0.00 0.06
69 6.1161 0.00 0.07 0.00 -0.02
70 6.1162 0.00 -0.10 0.00 0.08
71 6.1162 0.00 -0.06 0.00 0.27
72 6.2202 0.00 -0.17 0.00 0.09
73 6.2203 0.00 0.02 0.00 -0.09
74 6.2803 0.00 0.47 0.00 0.31
75 6.3481 0.00 0.21 0.00 0.13
76 6.3482 0.00 -0.10 0.00 -0.08
77 6.3591 0.00 0.05 0.00 -0.14
78 6.3591 0.00 -0.09 0.00 0.18
79 6.3592 0.00 -0.08 0.00 0.04
80 7.0936 0.00 -0.07 0.00 0.03
81 7.0937 0.00 0.11 0.00 0.07
82 7.0937 0.00 -0.37 0.00 -0.10
83 7.0937 0.00 -0.02 0.00 -0.32
84 7.2573 0.00 -0.38 0.00 0.09
85 7.2573 0.00 -0.04 0.00 0.15
86 7.2574 0.00 -0.33 0.00 -0.41
87 7.2574 0.00 0.02 0.00 -0.03
88 7.3366 0.00 0.06 0.00 -0.13
89 7.3367 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.10
90 7.9836 0.00 -0.06 0.00 0.13
91 7.9836 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.25
92 8.0630 0.00 0.43 0.00 -0.15
93 8.0683 0.00 0.09 0.00 -0.11
94 8.0738 0.00 -0.20 0.00 -0.23
95 8.0739 0.00 0.21 0.00 0.00
96 8.0739 0.00 0.30 0.00 0.07
97 8.1558 0.00 -0.04 0.00 0.33
98 8.1559 0.00 0.14 0.00 -0.41
99 8.2978 0.00 -0.13 0.00 0.08
100 8.2978 0.00 -0.04 0.00 0.09
101 8.2978 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.05
102 8.2979 0.00 0.12 0.00 -0.04
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15SA57 quality flag:3 Type: CENTAURS CENTAURS CENTAURS axisobj 585.736 585.579 585.892 ecceobj 0.973 0.973 0.973 incobj 45.359 45.359 45.359 qmin 13.129 12.410 10.980 qmax 1155.817 1464.340 2130.898 amean 372.131 386.647 682.637 amin 227.043 262.883 398.116 amax 585.734 739.958 1072.949 emean 0.958 0.960 0.977 emin 0.933 0.942 0.958 emax 0.973 0.979 0.988 imean 42.850 42.529 43.081 imin 40.195 38.838 38.053 imax 46.594 46.861 48.300 excite_mean 1.175 1.174 1.192 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 1.534 1.536 1.509 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 320.3 319.5 318.1 kozaiamp 5.9 4.7 4.8