The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15SW20 # Created Sun Dec 22 02:10:30 2024 # Orbit generated by ELGB # -->Covariance matrix from a Bernstein fit # Fitting 24 observations of 24 # Arc: 0.95y # First observation: 2015/09/17 # Last observation: 2016/08/31 # Chi-squared of fit: 182.08 DOF: 42 RMS: 0.49 # Min/Max residuals: 0.00 1.68 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 9.572263E-06 2.241092E-02 1.735571E-06 -2.017429E-04 2.359413E-02 -8.115803E-03 # Covariance matrix: 1.6073E-13 2.4274E-11 8.2468E-16 -1.6856E-13 5.6720E-12 9.1931E-10 2.4274E-11 1.5418E-08 6.1350E-13 -1.0610E-10 3.3900E-09 5.7873E-07 8.2468E-16 6.1350E-13 8.5325E-14 -9.9104E-14 1.3366E-13 2.3011E-11 -1.6856E-13 -1.0610E-10 -9.9104E-14 1.1013E-12 -2.3335E-11 -3.9826E-09 5.6720E-12 3.3900E-09 1.3366E-13 -2.3335E-11 7.4803E-10 1.2729E-07 9.1931E-10 5.7873E-07 2.3011E-11 -3.9826E-09 1.2729E-07 2.1724E-05 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 -0.982320 -7.337875 -0.032506 -0.017156 -1.007934 2457283.387669 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2457282.5000 = 2015/09/17 Mean Anomaly: 308.45023 +/- 15.956 Argument of Peri: 334.19803 +/- 0.196 Long of Asc Node: 110.56572 +/- 0.210 Inclination: 1.08521 +/- 0.002 Eccentricity: 0.35816468 +/- 0.2052 Semi-Major Axis: 49.13346812 +/- 7.8671 Time of Perihelion: 2475295.6126 +/- 26480.4 Perihelion: 31.53559532 +/- 11.2774 Aphelion: 66.73134093 +/- 14.6918 Period (y) 344.4089 +/- 82.72 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X 43.03056960 +/- 0.0487 Ecliptic Y -5.50923571 +/- 0.0063 Ecliptic Z -0.72651240 +/- 0.0008 Ecliptic XDOT -0.00060396 +/- 0.0005 Ecliptic YDOT 0.00269312 +/- 0.0001 Ecliptic ZDOT -0.00000721 +/- 0.0000 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 43.38812439 +/- 0.0483 Geocenter to KBO 42.38367669 +/- 0.0491 # Hcoef: 6.41
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15SW20. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15SW20) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2015 09 17.88688 23 34 36.17 -03 48 52.1 22.5R 15SW20 Z79 C~1cJL 2015 09 17.95170 23 34 35.89 -03 48 53.8 22.4R 15SW20 Z79 C~1cJL 2015 09 18.86507 23 34 31.95 -03 49 18.9 22.2R 15SW20 Z79 C~1cJL 2015 09 18.87314 23 34 31.91 -03 49 19.4 22.2R 15SW20 Z79 C~1cJL 2015 09 18.87736 23 34 31.91 -03 49 19.6 22.4R 15SW20 Z79 C~1cJL 2015 09 18.91822 23 34 31.73 -03 49 20.3 22.4R 15SW20 Z79 C~1cJL 2015 09 18.92225 23 34 31.70 -03 49 20.5 22.5R 15SW20 Z79 C~1cJL 2015 09 18.92628 23 34 31.70 -03 49 20.4 22.3R 15SW20 Z79 C~1cJL 2015 09 18.93031 23 34 31.68 -03 49 20.5 22.6R 15SW20 Z79 C~1cJL 2015 09 18.97650 23 34 31.46 -03 49 21.9 22.4R 15SW20 Z79 C~1cJL 2015 09 18.98053 23 34 31.45 -03 49 22.1 22.3R 15SW20 Z79 C~1cJL 2015 09 18.98456 23 34 31.44 -03 49 22.3 22.5R 15SW20 Z79 C~1cJL 2015 09 18.98863 23 34 31.42 -03 49 22.3 22.6R 15SW20 Z79 C~1cJL 2015 10 12.93937 23 32 52.46 -03 59 52.1 22.4R 15SW20 J13 C~1cJL 2015 10 13.06331 23 32 51.98 -03 59 55.4 22.2R 15SW20 J13 C~1cJL 2015 10 13.06874 23 32 51.93 -03 59 55.1 22.3R 15SW20 J13 C~1cJL 2015 10 13.07416 23 32 51.93 -03 59 55.4 21.9R 15SW20 J13 C~1cJL 2015 10 13.07957 23 32 51.91 -03 59 55.2 22.2R 15SW20 J13 C~1cJL 2016 08 30.07247 23 40 39.59 -03 10 24.3 23.0V 15SW20 J13 C~1xhd 2016 08 30.07789 23 40 39.56 -03 10 24.8 23.0V 15SW20 J13 C~1xhd 2016 08 30.08332 23 40 39.52 -03 10 24.6 22.9V 15SW20 J13 C~1xhd 2016 08 31.06659 23 40 35.50 -03 10 51.5 22.7V 15SW20 J13 C~1xhd 2016 08 31.07202 23 40 35.47 -03 10 51.7 23.0V 15SW20 J13 C~1xhd 2016 08 31.07744 23 40 35.45 -03 10 51.9 22.7V 15SW20 J13 C~1xhd
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 1.19 0.00 0.09
2 0.0002 0.00 1.26 0.00 0.20
3 0.0027 0.00 1.41 0.00 0.61
4 0.0027 0.00 1.34 0.00 0.33
5 0.0027 0.00 1.62 0.00 0.25
6 0.0028 0.00 1.60 0.00 0.69
7 0.0028 0.00 1.42 0.00 0.61
8 0.0028 0.00 1.68 0.00 0.82
9 0.0029 0.00 1.65 0.00 0.83
10 0.0030 0.00 1.39 0.00 0.72
11 0.0030 0.00 1.51 0.00 0.63
12 0.0030 0.00 1.63 0.00 0.55
13 0.0030 0.00 1.59 0.00 0.66
14 0.0686 0.00 1.61 0.00 0.85
15 0.0689 0.00 1.59 0.00 0.50
16 0.0689 0.00 1.16 0.00 0.93
17 0.0690 0.00 1.47 0.00 0.76
18 0.0690 0.00 1.48 0.00 1.08
19 0.9505 0.00 0.93 0.00 0.51
20 0.9506 0.00 0.82 0.00 0.16
21 0.9506 0.00 0.56 0.00 0.51
22 0.9533 0.00 0.98 0.00 0.33
23 0.9533 0.00 0.87 0.00 0.28
24 0.9533 0.00 0.91 0.00 0.23
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15SW20 quality flag:2 Type: CENTAURR SCATNEAR SCATNEAR axisobj 49.696 49.696 49.697 ecceobj 0.360 0.360 0.360 incobj 1.084 1.084 1.084 qmin 29.507 31.289 31.281 qmax 82.997 73.247 93.177 amean 45.808 51.004 57.218 amin 32.469 47.776 46.593 amax 57.479 53.165 62.744 emean 0.281 0.341 0.433 emin 0.084 0.305 0.314 emax 0.445 0.398 0.487 imean 2.628 3.042 3.850 imin 0.499 0.390 0.201 imax 4.402 5.483 8.298 excite_mean 0.286 0.346 0.440 fracstop 0.882 1.000 1.000 cjmean 3.015 3.033 3.001 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 181.5 194.6 201.7 kozaiamp 180.0 180.0 180.0