The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15SZ49 # Created Sun Dec 22 02:10:30 2024 # Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism # Fitting 22 observations of 22 # Arc: 4.17y # First observation: 2014/09/30 # Last observation: 2018/12/02 Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: -0.000151 0.028557 0.000058 -0.006934 0.027177 0.000000 # Chi-squared of fit: 9.63 DOF: 38 RMS: 0.12 # Min/Max residuals: -0.35 0.25 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 1.665218E-05 2.837525E-02 -4.452652E-06 -6.877135E-03 2.673647E-02 -1.354065E-03 # Covariance matrix: 7.1926E-13 -5.9596E-13 -1.0610E-13 1.2482E-13 -2.2370E-13 -4.0521E-12 -5.9596E-13 6.8559E-13 1.3579E-13 -1.6391E-13 3.6470E-13 5.2501E-12 -1.0610E-13 1.3579E-13 3.7403E-13 -1.5007E-13 6.2302E-14 1.1451E-12 1.2482E-13 -1.6391E-13 -1.5007E-13 8.9766E-14 -8.8644E-14 -1.3579E-12 -2.2370E-13 3.6470E-13 6.2302E-14 -8.8644E-14 4.2060E-13 2.6160E-12 -4.0521E-12 5.2501E-12 1.1451E-12 -1.3579E-12 2.6160E-12 4.3897E-11 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 -24.686767 20.593030 0.240700 -0.406885 -0.885560 2456930.753968 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2456930.5000 = 2014/09/30 Mean Anomaly: 343.65750 +/- 0.059 Argument of Peri: 264.94187 +/- 0.086 Long of Asc Node: 141.28056 +/- 0.001 Inclination: 27.55387 +/- 0.000 Eccentricity: 0.16735137 +/- 0.0001 Semi-Major Axis: 45.45766217 +/- 0.0043 Time of Perihelion: 2462012.3880 +/- 18.3 Perihelion: 37.85026003 +/- 0.0059 Aphelion: 53.06506432 +/- 0.0069 Period (y) 306.4918 +/- 0.04 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X 32.80646710 +/- 0.0008 Ecliptic Y 12.07235249 +/- 0.0003 Ecliptic Z -15.62144466 +/- 0.0004 Ecliptic XDOT -0.00141988 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic YDOT 0.00256761 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic ZDOT -0.00058184 +/- 0.0000 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 38.28884317 +/- 0.0007 Geocenter to KBO 37.40210042 +/- 0.0009 # Hcoef: 7.62
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15SZ49. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15SZ49) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2014 09 30.25319 01 53 29.190 -14 50 13.36 24.2g 15SZ49 W84 C~55Wy 2015 09 23.26896 02 00 50.035 -14 29 00.13 21.2z 15SZ49 W84 C~55Wy 2015 11 16.17189 01 56 31.385 -14 54 54.21 23.7r 15SZ49 W84 C~55Wy 2015 11 16.17326 01 56 31.376 -14 54 54.11 23.5i 15SZ49 W84 C~55Wy 2015 11 16.17464 01 56 31.374 -14 54 54.03 24.2g 15SZ49 W84 C~55Wy 2015 11 16.18021 01 56 31.341 -14 54 54.21 23.7r 15SZ49 W84 C~55Wy 2016 08 29.40238 02 08 54.408 -13 53 13.15 23.7r 15SZ49 W84 C~55Wy 2016 09 08.30225 02 08 28.958 -14 01 07.96 23.1i 15SZ49 W84 C~55Wy 2016 09 08.30361 02 08 28.957 -14 01 07.89 24.4g 15SZ49 W84 C~55Wy 2016 09 30.24057 02 07 06.642 -14 17 43.58 23.1i 15SZ49 W84 C~55Wy 2016 09 30.24194 02 07 06.614 -14 17 43.42 23.6r 15SZ49 W84 C~55Wy 2016 12 07.18676 02 01 51.010 -14 38 11.21 22.3z 15SZ49 W84 C~55Wy 2017 11 01.21650 02 11 21.538 -14 17 38.67 23.0z 15SZ49 W84 C~55Wy 2017 11 27.08309 02 09 18.318 -14 22 18.68 23.0i 15SZ49 W84 C~55Wy 2017 12 14.07451 02 08 15.945 -14 19 51.95 23.2r 15SZ49 W84 C~55Wy 2017 12 22.09803 02 07 54.292 -14 17 13.55 24.5g 15SZ49 W84 C~55Wy 2017 12 22.14542 02 07 54.185 -14 17 12.48 23.6r 15SZ49 W84 C~55Wy 2017 12 23.13811 02 07 51.911 -14 16 49.13 24.4g 15SZ49 W84 C~55Wy 2018 10 20.32570 02 19 13.445 -13 54 01.59 22.8i 15SZ49 W84 C~55Wy 2018 10 20.32706 02 19 13.436 -13 54 01.62 23.4r 15SZ49 W84 C~55Wy 2018 11 29.22351 02 15 58.619 -14 04 29.80 23.4r 15SZ49 W84 C~55Wy 2018 12 02.13556 02 15 46.520 -14 04 20.85 24.6g 15SZ49 W84 C~55Wz
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.08
2 0.9802 6390.96 0.08 -1315.79 -0.35
3 1.1278 2327.27 -0.05 -1280.65 -0.10
4 1.1278 2327.19 -0.04 -1280.51 0.01
5 1.1278 2327.19 0.06 -1280.42 0.07
6 1.1278 2326.68 -0.09 -1280.40 -0.01
7 1.9142 13727.34 0.02 -2141.56 0.01
8 1.9413 13195.56 -0.09 -2428.77 0.15
9 1.9413 13195.57 0.01 -2428.70 0.25
10 2.0013 11694.82 0.08 -2863.34 -0.28
11 2.0013 11694.51 -0.12 -2863.03 0.05
12 2.1874 6988.98 0.01 -2171.17 0.21
13 3.0882 15106.53 -0.06 -4350.49 0.03
14 3.1590 13345.37 -0.07 -3884.06 -0.08
15 3.2055 12570.26 0.21 -3384.88 0.03
16 3.2275 12344.18 0.01 -3113.17 0.09
17 3.2276 12343.18 0.09 -3111.56 0.02
18 3.2303 12322.12 0.02 -3076.86 -0.04
19 4.0550 22014.12 0.07 -5865.35 0.03
20 4.0550 22013.99 0.04 -5865.32 0.05
21 4.1642 19139.47 0.05 -5270.80 0.01
22 4.1722 18980.88 -0.24 -5190.30 -0.21
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15SZ49 quality flag:3 Type: SCATEXTD SCATEXTD SCATEXTD axisobj 45.871 45.883 45.859 ecceobj 0.174 0.174 0.173 incobj 27.506 27.506 27.506 qmin 37.430 37.262 37.354 qmax 54.006 54.161 54.068 amean 45.494 45.481 45.491 amin 45.107 45.077 45.094 amax 45.937 45.960 45.936 emean 0.158 0.160 0.167 emin 0.142 0.143 0.157 emax 0.176 0.178 0.177 imean 26.445 26.410 26.281 imin 26.071 26.007 26.020 imax 26.809 26.798 26.544 excite_mean 0.473 0.473 0.473 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 2.836 2.836 2.836 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 183.1 177.7 180.9 kozaiamp 180.0 179.9 180.0