The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15TP454 # Created Fri Nov 22 02:10:30 2024 # Orbit generated by ELGB # -->Covariance matrix from a Bernstein fit # Fitting 17 observations of 19 # Arc: 4.18y # First observation: 2014/09/25 # Last observation: 2018/11/30 # Chi-squared of fit: 4.86 DOF: 28 RMS: 0.09 # Min/Max residuals: -0.18 0.20 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 1.390748E-05 1.959913E-02 -4.259332E-06 -5.244786E-03 2.226387E-02 -1.222172E-02 # Covariance matrix: 5.3027E-13 -2.3915E-13 -9.8055E-14 5.6098E-14 -1.6522E-13 -8.2971E-13 -2.3915E-13 1.5716E-13 6.3164E-14 -3.9109E-14 2.2090E-13 5.7012E-13 -9.8055E-14 6.3164E-14 2.2348E-13 -5.0846E-14 6.5427E-14 2.5123E-13 5.6098E-14 -3.9109E-14 -5.0846E-14 1.9612E-14 -5.3357E-14 -1.5207E-13 -1.6522E-13 2.2090E-13 6.5427E-14 -5.3357E-14 7.2347E-13 7.4456E-13 -8.2971E-13 5.7012E-13 2.5123E-13 -1.5207E-13 7.4456E-13 2.2259E-12 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 -19.691193 9.499487 0.134674 -0.335572 -0.938127 2456925.731968 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2456926.5000 = 2014/09/26 Mean Anomaly: 330.79342 +/- 0.013 Argument of Peri: 327.94286 +/- 0.009 Long of Asc Node: 138.15842 +/- 0.001 Inclination: 24.17438 +/- 0.000 Eccentricity: 0.58668783 +/- 0.0001 Semi-Major Axis: 66.88942334 +/- 0.0199 Time of Perihelion: 2473137.6115 +/- 82.4 Perihelion: 27.64621296 +/- 0.0109 Aphelion: 106.13263372 +/- 0.0324 Period (y) 547.0719 +/- 0.24 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X 42.71165335 +/- 0.0016 Ecliptic Y 7.01291515 +/- 0.0003 Ecliptic Z -15.13461642 +/- 0.0006 Ecliptic XDOT -0.00201241 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic YDOT 0.00210312 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic ZDOT -0.00010072 +/- 0.0000 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 45.85366909 +/- 0.0015 Geocenter to KBO 44.91624755 +/- 0.0017 # Hcoef: 6.80
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15TP454. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15TP454) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2014 09 25.23119 01 06 20.812 -14 19 11.82 22.9i 15TP454 W84 C~55X8 2015 10 07.19735 01 10 19.026 -14 14 15.90 23.1r 15TP454 W84 C~55X8 2015 10 07.19872 01 10 19.015 -14 14 16.00 22.9i 15TP454 W84 C~55X8 2015 10 22.14380 01 09 14.868 -14 20 28.16 22.6z 15TP454 W84 C~55X8 2016 08 16.36483 01 18 06.469 -13 31 55.67 22.8z 15TP454 W84 C~55X8 2016 10 05.19382 01 15 18.013 -14 02 07.41 23.4r 15TP454 W84 C~55X8 2016 10 05.19519 01 15 18.009 -14 02 07.40 23.0i 15TP454 W84 C~55X8 2017 09 25.24972 01 21 01.647 -13 44 19.70 23.3r 15TP454 W84 C~55X8 2017 09 25.25109 01 21 01.643 -13 44 20.03 23.0i 15TP454 W84 C~55X8 2017 11 16.11634 01 17 24.146 -14 02 52.05 23.0i 15TP454 W84 C~55X8 2017 11 18.15759 01 17 16.956 -14 03 00.15 22.4i 15TP454 W84 C~55X8 2017 11 26.08287 01 16 51.359 -14 03 02.25 23.2z 15TP454 W84 C~55X8 2018 10 19.13126 01 24 26.885 -13 43 11.24 22.8z 15TP454 W84 C~55X8 2018 11 15.20654 01 22 33.333 -13 50 13.33 23.0i 15TP454 W84 C~55X8 2018 11 16.08901 01 22 30.071 -13 50 18.48 22.9i 15TP454 W84 C~55X8 2018 11 26.09547 01 21 55.889 -13 50 35.40 23.6r 15TP454 W84 C~55X8 2018 11 30.08589 01 21 43.924 -13 50 21.22 25.0g 15TP454 W84 C~55X8 2024 11 01.24947 01 56 59.867 -12 14 21.44 23.0G 15TP454 G37 2024 11 01.29635 01 56 59.615 -12 14 22.30 15TP454 G37
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 -0.04 0.00 0.10
2 1.0321 0.00 0.07 0.00 0.13
3 1.0321 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.07
4 1.0730 0.00 -0.02 0.00 -0.18
5 1.8922 0.00 0.13 0.00 -0.06
6 2.0286 0.00 0.01 0.00 -0.03
7 2.0286 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.03
8 3.0007 0.00 -0.12 0.00 0.10
9 3.0007 0.00 -0.09 0.00 -0.18
10 3.1427 0.00 -0.01 0.00 -0.12
11 3.1483 0.00 -0.15 0.00 -0.10
12 3.1700 0.00 0.20 0.00 0.07
13 4.0654 0.00 0.12 0.00 0.06
14 4.1396 0.00 -0.03 0.00 0.11
15 4.1420 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.04
16 4.1694 0.00 0.08 0.00 -0.01
17 4.1803 0.00 -0.07 0.00 0.01
18 10.1027 0.00 ( -3.04) 0.00 ( -0.59)
19 10.1028 0.00 ( -3.42) 0.00 ( -0.51)
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15TP454 quality flag:3 Type: CENTAURR CENTAURR CENTAURR axisobj 67.598 67.767 67.431 ecceobj 0.587 0.589 0.586 incobj 24.118 24.118 24.119 qmin 27.214 27.074 25.460 qmax 109.284 107.657 116.703 amean 67.733 65.234 66.431 amin 66.473 62.678 61.624 amax 68.612 67.767 71.780 emean 0.590 0.577 0.601 emin 0.579 0.562 0.558 emax 0.597 0.592 0.626 imean 22.691 22.807 20.202 imin 22.537 22.634 18.685 imax 22.899 22.976 22.941 excite_mean 0.705 0.695 0.693 fracstop 0.002 0.010 0.234 cjmean 2.686 2.685 2.680 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 328.4 328.4 203.4 kozaiamp 1.0 1.3 180.0