The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15VA165 # Created Fri Nov 22 02:10:31 2024 # Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism # Fitting 25 observations of 25 # Arc: 2.27y # First observation: 2015/09/07 # Last observation: 2017/12/13 Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: -0.000204 0.033905 -0.000041 -0.008477 0.030511 0.000000 # Chi-squared of fit: 9.68 DOF: 44 RMS: 0.11 # Min/Max residuals: -0.33 0.22 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 1.790518E-05 3.394766E-02 -4.235722E-06 -8.547934E-03 3.065077E-02 9.320223E-03 # Covariance matrix: 2.1412E-13 -3.7157E-14 5.5386E-15 -1.8405E-14 1.4643E-13 1.0898E-12 -3.7157E-14 5.3687E-13 3.5713E-14 -1.5402E-13 2.6102E-13 9.0540E-12 5.5386E-15 3.5713E-14 1.2407E-13 -1.0153E-13 2.4055E-14 7.8285E-13 -1.8405E-14 -1.5402E-13 -1.0153E-13 1.8150E-13 -9.6537E-14 -3.3781E-12 1.4643E-13 2.6102E-13 2.4055E-14 -9.6537E-14 3.1510E-13 5.6852E-12 1.0898E-12 9.0540E-12 7.8285E-13 -3.3781E-12 5.6852E-12 1.9858E-10 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 -1.578791 52.843036 0.939358 -0.010155 -0.373812 2457273.121609 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2457270.5000 = 2015/09/05 Mean Anomaly: 40.83374 +/- 0.017 Argument of Peri: 118.26789 +/- 0.030 Long of Asc Node: 225.02701 +/- 0.000 Inclination: 14.18024 +/- 0.001 Eccentricity: 0.27981026 +/- 0.0004 Semi-Major Axis: 39.54936709 +/- 0.0107 Time of Perihelion: 2446966.0602 +/- 1.0 Perihelion: 28.48304823 +/- 0.0182 Aphelion: 50.61568595 +/- 0.0214 Period (y) 248.7239 +/- 0.10 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X 20.66888713 +/- 0.0004 Ecliptic Y 25.72258982 +/- 0.0005 Ecliptic Z -0.89901828 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic XDOT -0.00192865 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic YDOT 0.00247161 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic ZDOT -0.00078613 +/- 0.0000 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 33.01004023 +/- 0.0004 Geocenter to KBO 32.62561230 +/- 0.0006 # Hcoef: 9.86
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15VA165. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15VA165) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2015 09 07.62082 03 23 26.568 +16 57 18.64 26.1w 15VA165 568 C~2lVZ 2015 09 12.48448 03 23 18.619 +16 56 11.13 24.6w 15VA165 568 C~2lVZ 2015 10 07.52687 03 21 57.456 +16 48 00.95 25.3w 15VA165 568 C~2lVZ 2015 10 07.58621 03 21 57.191 +16 47 59.66 25.4w 15VA165 568 C~2lVZ 2015 10 09.56611 03 21 48.240 +16 47 12.19 25.9w 15VA165 568 C~2lVZ 2015 11 06.33883 03 19 16.893 +16 34 43.89 24.5r 15VA165 568 C~2lVZ 2015 11 06.40946 03 19 16.484 +16 34 41.84 24.8r 15VA165 568 C~2lVZ 2015 11 06.47899 03 19 16.016 +16 34 40.07 24.9r 15VA165 568 C~2lVZ 2015 11 07.49597 03 19 09.906 +16 34 10.77 25.1w 15VA165 568 C~2lVZ 2015 11 17.47779 03 18 09.070 +16 29 26.24 25.0w 15VA165 568 C~2lVZ 2015 12 06.34344 03 16 18.089 +16 20 56.36 24.9w 15VA165 568 C~2lVZ 2015 12 31.36453 03 14 21.622 +16 12 05.73 25.2w 15VA165 568 C~2lVZ 2016 01 07.39390 03 13 59.017 +16 10 21.06 25.3w 15VA165 568 C~2lVZ 2016 02 11.24684 03 13 32.385 +16 07 36.81 25.5w 15VA165 568 C~2lVZ 2016 09 07.60834 03 31 43.951 +16 57 21.40 15VA165 568 C~2lVZ 2016 09 27.53529 03 30 57.457 +16 51 50.33 26.2w 15VA165 568 C~2lVZ 2016 10 09.52781 03 30 09.960 +16 47 28.00 23.1w 15VA165 568 C~2lVZ 2016 10 09.59992 03 30 09.631 +16 47 25.93 25.6w 15VA165 568 C~2lVZ 2016 11 02.48525 03 28 03.451 +16 37 10.49 25.4w 15VA165 568 C~2lVZ 2016 11 04.46126 03 27 51.775 +16 36 16.48 25.3w 15VA165 568 C~2lVZ 2016 12 28.45409 03 22 54.047 +16 14 36.58 26.6w 15VA165 568 C~2lVZ 2017 01 27.30860 03 21 42.681 +16 09 34.20 25.4w 15VA165 568 C~2lVZ 2017 09 15.62132 03 39 42.029 +16 54 31.05 25.4w 15VA165 568 C~2lVZ 2017 09 22.59895 03 39 26.158 +16 52 34.82 25.5w 15VA165 568 C~2lVZ 2017 12 13.35764 03 32 23.478 +16 20 01.82 25.4w 15VA165 568 C~2lVZ
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 -0.08 0.00 -0.04
2 0.0133 -127.36 0.05 -36.69 0.01
3 0.0819 -1378.40 -0.01 -217.24 -0.07
4 0.0820 -1382.41 0.09 -217.52 0.03
5 0.0875 -1518.79 0.02 -230.91 0.06
6 0.1635 -3812.72 -0.13 -400.65 -0.01
7 0.1637 -3818.93 0.19 -401.13 -0.14
8 0.1639 -3825.89 -0.33 -401.11 0.22
9 0.1667 -3918.34 0.07 -406.92 -0.15
10 0.1940 -4837.32 0.12 -457.11 0.01
11 0.2456 -6512.98 0.15 -536.60 -0.10
12 0.3142 -8272.61 -0.17 -611.36 0.07
13 0.3334 -8614.88 0.04 -626.97 0.21
14 0.4288 -9029.03 0.02 -684.69 -0.04
15 1.0020 6920.42 -0.06 -1754.05 -0.06
16 1.0566 6192.23 -0.08 -1914.22 0.02
17 1.0894 5466.43 0.15 -2003.34 0.21
18 1.0896 5461.34 0.10 -2004.20 -0.16
19 1.1550 3552.10 -0.03 -2158.09 -0.01
20 1.1604 3376.08 -0.03 -2169.20 -0.05
21 1.3082 -1096.88 -0.17 -2362.26 0.09
22 1.3900 -2168.05 0.07 -2395.28 -0.09
23 2.0233 13564.70 0.07 -3543.62 -0.03
24 2.0424 13315.14 -0.13 -3604.02 0.02
25 2.2662 6933.42 0.07 -4066.31 0.02
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15VA165 quality flag:3 Type: 3:2E 3:2E 3:2E axisobj 40.032 40.069 39.996 ecceobj 0.288 0.289 0.287 incobj 14.133 14.133 14.133 qmin 27.924 27.906 27.865 qmax 51.781 51.894 51.870 amean 39.455 39.456 39.455 amin 38.908 38.879 38.953 amax 40.115 40.174 40.067 emean 0.277 0.280 0.265 emin 0.254 0.265 0.234 emax 0.293 0.293 0.295 imean 15.406 15.276 15.913 imin 14.830 14.793 14.669 imax 16.226 15.831 17.106 excite_mean 0.384 0.384 0.381 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 2.884 2.884 2.885 libcent 0 182.2 178.7 179.8 libamp 0 130.7 135.3 108.3 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 175.2 182.3 180.9 kozaiamp 180.0 180.0 180.0