The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15VA168 # Created Tue Apr 1 01:10:39 2025 # Orbit generated by ELGB # -->Covariance matrix from a Bernstein fit # Fitting 31 observations of 31 # Arc: 9.37y # First observation: 2015/08/20 # Last observation: 2024/12/31 # Chi-squared of fit: 7.27 DOF: 56 RMS: 0.09 # Min/Max residuals: -0.18 0.37 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 2.058494E-05 3.833403E-02 2.077828E-06 3.747717E-03 2.924601E-02 4.475411E-03 # Covariance matrix: 1.8977E-13 -8.9217E-14 5.4868E-15 -9.7960E-15 1.0051E-13 -2.7339E-13 -8.9217E-14 1.9767E-13 -9.6510E-15 2.0990E-14 1.7014E-14 6.0126E-13 5.4868E-15 -9.6510E-15 5.8155E-14 -1.1479E-14 7.0440E-16 -3.1101E-14 -9.7960E-15 2.0990E-14 -1.1479E-14 1.1485E-14 7.8761E-16 6.7168E-14 1.0051E-13 1.7014E-14 7.0440E-16 7.8761E-16 1.1835E-13 3.0394E-14 -2.7339E-13 6.0126E-13 -3.1101E-14 6.7168E-14 3.0394E-14 1.9224E-12 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 -0.898441 54.214058 1.013288 -0.000679 -0.051624 2457255.045359 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2457254.5000 = 2015/08/20 Mean Anomaly: 3.71481 +/- 0.001 Argument of Peri: 336.73114 +/- 0.005 Long of Asc Node: 61.68342 +/- 0.000 Inclination: 5.61517 +/- 0.000 Eccentricity: 0.52801095 +/- 0.0001 Semi-Major Axis: 71.82744535 +/- 0.0108 Time of Perihelion: 2454960.1049 +/- 1.1 Perihelion: 33.90176805 +/- 0.0071 Aphelion: 109.75312265 +/- 0.0173 Period (y) 608.7568 +/- 0.14 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X 20.84008217 +/- 0.0002 Ecliptic Y 27.18320011 +/- 0.0003 Ecliptic Z -0.53604987 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic XDOT -0.00266493 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic YDOT 0.00243639 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic ZDOT 0.00034428 +/- 0.0000 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 34.25665788 +/- 0.0003 Geocenter to KBO 34.19263080 +/- 0.0004 # Hcoef: 8.23
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15VA168. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15VA168) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2015 08 20.54457 03 28 18.234 +17 57 14.51 23.6w 15VA168 568 C~2lVl 2015 08 20.55007 03 28 18.230 +17 57 14.51 23.7w 15VA168 568 C~2lVl 2015 09 07.60044 03 28 17.924 +17 57 23.81 24.1w 15VA168 568 C~2lVl 2015 09 12.44733 03 28 11.461 +17 57 03.59 23.9w 15VA168 568 C~2lVl 2015 10 07.49766 03 26 58.512 +17 53 02.80 23.9w 15VA168 568 C~2lVl 2015 10 07.55607 03 26 58.267 +17 53 01.99 23.7w 15VA168 568 C~2lVl 2015 10 09.53675 03 26 49.993 +17 52 34.34 23.8w 15VA168 568 C~2lVl 2015 11 06.31257 03 24 27.855 +17 44 37.93 23.6r 15VA168 568 C~2lVl 2015 11 06.37589 03 24 27.494 +17 44 36.80 23.7r 15VA168 568 C~2lVl 2015 11 06.44667 03 24 27.067 +17 44 35.85 23.7r 15VA168 568 C~2lVl 2015 11 07.46686 03 24 21.224 +17 44 15.92 23.5w 15VA168 568 C~2lVl 2015 11 17.44798 03 23 23.270 +17 41 03.21 23.5w 15VA168 568 C~2lVl 2015 11 17.49527 03 23 22.984 +17 41 02.29 23.8w 15VA168 568 C~2lVl 2015 12 06.31417 03 21 36.706 +17 35 14.49 23.7w 15VA168 568 C~2lVl 2015 12 06.44064 03 21 36.006 +17 35 12.13 23.9w 15VA168 568 C~2lVl 2015 12 06.44787 03 21 35.983 +17 35 12.07 23.9w 15VA168 568 C~2lVl 2015 12 31.33561 03 19 43.545 +17 29 26.52 23.6w 15VA168 568 C~2lVl 2016 01 07.36493 03 19 21.300 +17 28 26.40 23.7w 15VA168 568 C~2lVl 2016 01 07.41708 03 19 21.151 +17 28 25.98 23.9w 15VA168 568 C~2lVl 2016 02 05.31154 03 18 47.701 +17 28 03.68 24.0w 15VA168 568 C~2lVl 2016 02 11.26421 03 18 53.275 +17 28 46.71 23.9w 15VA168 568 C~2lVl 2016 10 28.47058 03 34 09.862 +18 32 36.66 15VA168 568 C~2lVl 2016 10 28.49380 03 34 09.737 +18 32 36.29 15VA168 568 C~2lVl 2016 10 29.53251 03 34 04.103 +18 32 18.65 15VA168 568 C~2lVl 2016 11 02.58549 03 33 41.701 +18 31 08.56 15VA168 568 C~2lVl 2016 12 24.36175 03 28 59.651 +18 16 42.35 23.9w 15VA168 568 C~2lVl 2017 01 27.31949 03 27 31.475 +18 13 12.08 23.7w 15VA168 568 C~2lVl 2017 09 15.62735 03 45 44.131 +19 23 23.00 23.9w 15VA168 568 C~2lVl 2017 09 22.60498 03 45 30.523 +19 22 49.54 24.0w 15VA168 568 C~2lVl 2024 12 31.249750 04 39 07.809 +23 12 11.17 23.7G 15VA168 G37 C~8cQu 2024 12 31.348270 04 39 07.302 +23 12 10.63 15VA168 G37 C~8cQu
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 0.03 0.00 -0.00
2 0.0000 0.00 -0.11 0.00 -0.03
3 0.0494 0.00 -0.05 0.00 -0.00
4 0.0627 0.00 0.19 0.00 -0.08
5 0.1313 0.00 0.01 0.00 -0.00
6 0.1314 0.00 0.01 0.00 -0.01
7 0.1369 0.00 -0.05 0.00 0.01
8 0.2129 0.00 0.06 0.00 -0.09
9 0.2131 0.00 0.15 0.00 -0.03
10 0.2133 0.00 -0.06 0.00 0.37
11 0.2161 0.00 0.06 0.00 -0.04
12 0.2434 0.00 -0.05 0.00 0.00
13 0.2435 0.00 -0.13 0.00 0.00
14 0.2951 0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.01
15 0.2954 0.00 -0.18 0.00 -0.17
16 0.2954 0.00 0.06 0.00 -0.11
17 0.3636 0.00 -0.05 0.00 -0.02
18 0.3828 0.00 0.11 0.00 0.02
19 0.3830 0.00 0.13 0.00 -0.01
20 0.4621 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.10
21 0.4784 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.03
22 1.1908 0.00 -0.02 0.00 0.02
23 1.1908 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.04
24 1.1937 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.00
25 1.2048 0.00 0.03 0.00 -0.01
26 1.3465 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.01
27 1.4395 0.00 -0.04 0.00 -0.03
28 2.0728 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.05
29 2.0919 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.03
30 9.3654 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.18
31 9.3657 0.00 -0.02 0.00 0.15
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15VA168 quality flag:3 Type: SCATNEAR SCATNEAR SCATNEAR axisobj 73.429 73.429 73.430 ecceobj 0.538 0.538 0.538 incobj 5.604 5.604 5.604 qmin 32.954 32.961 32.957 qmax 118.765 167.726 118.634 amean 71.704 89.824 69.120 amin 67.956 70.283 63.065 amax 76.261 100.816 76.323 emean 0.529 0.620 0.509 emin 0.501 0.517 0.461 emax 0.557 0.664 0.554 imean 3.697 3.492 3.148 imin 2.841 2.946 2.045 imax 4.689 4.689 4.689 excite_mean 0.533 0.623 0.512 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 3.033 3.033 3.039 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 171.5 201.2 167.2 kozaiamp 180.0 180.0 179.9