Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15VA171

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15VA171   
# Created Tue Apr  1 01:10:41 2025
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting     30 observations of     30
# Arc:   3.07y
# First observation: 2014/11/19
#  Last observation: 2017/12/16
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
   0.000048   0.023333  -0.000001  -0.000379   0.024012   0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit:    10.76 DOF:     54 RMS:  0.11
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.37    0.20
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.516778E-05  2.353880E-02 -1.872223E-07 -3.817492E-04  2.419468E-02  7.549984E-04
# Covariance matrix:
  5.3715E-13 -5.6088E-13 -3.3296E-15  6.2792E-15 -2.4091E-13 -5.2737E-12
 -5.6088E-13  7.3555E-13  4.9672E-15 -9.2934E-15  3.4488E-13  7.8131E-12
 -3.3296E-15  4.9672E-15  2.3380E-13 -1.1087E-13  2.3481E-15  5.7633E-14
  6.2792E-15 -9.2934E-15 -1.1087E-13  6.6831E-14 -5.2172E-15 -1.0934E-13
 -2.4091E-13  3.4488E-13  2.3481E-15 -5.2172E-15  3.2406E-13  4.2968E-12
 -5.2737E-12  7.8131E-12  5.7633E-14 -1.0934E-13  4.2968E-12  9.1759E-11
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
   -0.791633   48.933370   -0.130120   -0.013395   -0.980286  2456980.794628
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2456980.5000  =  2014/11/19
Mean Anomaly:           62.67658 +/-     0.211
Argument of Peri:      153.39110 +/-     0.256
Long of Asc Node:      189.28457 +/-     0.020
Inclination:             1.20728 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.03625913 +/-    0.0004
Semi-Major Axis:     42.98056399 +/-    0.0031
Time of Perihelion: 2439061.6802 +/-      60.2
Perihelion:          41.42212621 +/-    0.0167
Aphelion:            44.53900177 +/-    0.0168
Period (y)              281.7840 +/-      0.03
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X           27.69230671 +/-    0.0006
Ecliptic Y           31.98479182 +/-    0.0007
Ecliptic Z           -0.57106642 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00195677 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT         0.00180881 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT        -0.00004427 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   42.31095456 +/-    0.0007
Geocenter to KBO     41.33139873 +/-    0.0010
# Hcoef:  8.91

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15VA171. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15VA171) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2014 11  19.29385  03 06 49.029  +16 41 24.97  25.3r 15VA171   568  C~2nw8      
2014 11  23.39737  03 06 29.190  +16 40 04.19  26.0r 15VA171   568  C~2nw8      
2015 09  07.63311  03 16 51.370  +17 20 49.27  25.8w 15VA171   568  C~2nw8      
2015 09  12.49674  03 16 43.557  +17 20 12.92  25.1w 15VA171   568  C~2nw8      
2015 10  07.54436  03 15 32.718  +17 15 10.56  25.0w 15VA171   568  C~2nw8      
2015 10  09.58362  03 15 24.997  +17 14 38.60  25.0w 15VA171   568  C~2nw8      
2015 11  07.33788  03 13 15.863  +17 05 55.18  24.8r 15VA171   568  C~2nw8      
2015 11  07.38006  03 13 15.660  +17 05 54.44  24.9r 15VA171   568  C~2nw8      
2015 11  07.42224  03 13 15.441  +17 05 53.58  25.1r 15VA171   568  C~2nw8      
2015 12  06.36096  03 10 56.546  +16 56 43.34  24.9w 15VA171   568  C~2nw8      
2016 01  01.34872  03 09 20.177  +16 50 32.12  25.4w 15VA171   568  C~2nw8      
2016 01  08.25624  03 09 02.694  +16 49 27.33  25.4w 15VA171   568  C~2nw8      
2016 02  05.28768  03 08 36.617  +16 48 09.03  25.2w 15VA171   568  C~2nw8      
2016 02  10.30807  03 08 40.009  +16 48 27.75  24.8w 15VA171   568  C~2nw8      
2016 09  07.62568  03 22 13.705  +17 39 54.47        15VA171   568  C~2nw8      
2016 09  26.58416  03 21 32.696  +17 36 57.20  25.9w 15VA171   568  C~2nw8      
2016 10  09.54522  03 20 48.574  +17 33 58.06  25.3w 15VA171   568  C~2nw8      
2016 10  09.61729  03 20 48.294  +17 33 57.06  25.0w 15VA171   568  C~2nw8      
2016 11  02.52573  03 19 02.866  +17 27 01.08  25.4w 15VA171   568  C~2nw8      
2016 11  04.40084  03 18 53.789  +17 26 25.54  25.2w 15VA171   568  C~2nw8      
2016 12  24.31334  03 15 07.243  +17 12 00.47  25.1w 15VA171   568  C~2nw8      
2017 01  02.41556  03 14 38.693  +17 10 15.74  25.4w 15VA171   568  C~2nw8      
2017 01  26.32908  03 13 57.303  +17 07 56.06  26.0w 15VA171   568  C~2nw8      
2017 09  15.58856  03 27 25.108  +17 57 33.87  25.4w 15VA171   568  C~2nw8      
2017 09  17.60038  03 27 21.057  +17 57 16.71  25.4w 15VA171   568  C~2nw8      
2017 09  22.57478  03 27 09.590  +17 56 28.87  25.1w 15VA171   568  C~2nw8      
2017 09  23.57901  03 27 07.059  +17 56 18.47        15VA171   568  C~2nw8      
2017 09  23.58734  03 27 07.038  +17 56 18.48        15VA171   568  C~2nw8      
2017 09  24.59522  03 27 04.375  +17 56 07.53  25.7w 15VA171   568  C~2nw8      
2017 12  16.39181  03 21 03.596  +17 33 21.58  27.0w 15VA171   568  C~2nw8      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

     1   0.0000      0.00     0.04       0.00    -0.01
     2   0.0112   -296.29    -0.06       0.11     0.03
     3   0.8004   8962.62     0.02     -25.26    -0.02
     4   0.8137   8844.92    -0.11     -31.21     0.10
     5   0.8823   7784.90    -0.18     -57.92     0.13
     6   0.8879   7669.62     0.00     -59.77     0.05
     7   0.9666   5744.39    -0.00     -76.85    -0.14
     8   0.9667   5741.38     0.12     -76.79    -0.09
     9   0.9668   5738.12    -0.01     -76.79    -0.10
    10   1.0460   3670.28     0.11     -76.49    -0.19
    11   1.1172   2237.95     0.19     -62.28     0.02
    12   1.1361   1978.74     0.04     -56.91     0.01
    13   1.2129   1597.06     0.04     -31.06     0.07
    14   1.2266   1649.02    -0.25     -26.22     0.04
    15   1.8024  13727.70     0.16    -104.02    -0.05
    16   1.8543  13113.10     0.10    -126.56    -0.12
    17   1.8898  12454.88    -0.06    -138.92     0.06
    18   1.8900  12450.73    -0.00    -138.87     0.17
    19   1.9555  10881.32    -0.09    -153.94     0.16
    20   1.9606  10746.29    -0.01    -154.79     0.03
    21   2.0972   7382.29    -0.01    -145.65     0.02
    22   2.1222   6959.50     0.12    -139.12    -0.05
    23   2.1876   6349.79    -0.12    -117.43     0.04
    24   2.8235  18326.21     0.20    -191.86    -0.08
    25   2.8290  18265.49    -0.09    -194.22     0.02
    26   2.8427  18093.78    -0.37    -200.15    -0.03
    27   2.8454  18055.93     0.09    -201.30    -0.03
    28   2.8454  18055.64     0.14    -201.21     0.06
    29   2.8482  18015.80    -0.01    -202.42    -0.02
    30   3.0749  12654.01     0.00    -229.21    -0.04

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15VA171    quality flag:3

Type:      CLASSICAL CLASSICAL CLASSICAL

axisobj        43.316    43.326    43.306
ecceobj         0.044     0.044     0.043
incobj          1.202     1.202     1.202
qmin           40.240    40.254    40.261
qmax           45.909    45.938    45.909
amean          42.988    42.998    42.978
amin           42.657    42.660    42.645
amax           43.334    43.337    43.322
emean           0.043     0.044     0.043
emin            0.022     0.022     0.021
emax            0.060     0.060     0.060
imean           2.892     2.888     2.895
imin            1.786     1.788     1.786
imax            3.647     3.643     3.650
excite_mean     0.067     0.067     0.066
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          3.084     3.084     3.084

libcent 0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       179.5     180.0     179.7
kozaiamp        179.9     180.0     180.0