The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15VA172 # Created Tue Apr 1 01:10:42 2025 # Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism # Fitting 41 observations of 41 # Arc: 3.08y # First observation: 2014/11/17 # Last observation: 2017/12/16 Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: -0.000063 0.024480 -0.000003 0.000553 0.024418 0.000000 # Chi-squared of fit: 3.04 DOF: 76 RMS: 0.05 # Min/Max residuals: -0.15 0.16 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 1.640614E-05 2.451915E-02 4.247419E-07 5.540184E-04 2.453963E-02 -9.572873E-04 # Covariance matrix: 2.4483E-13 -2.7939E-13 3.1968E-15 -5.0988E-15 -1.2346E-13 -2.7938E-12 -2.7939E-13 4.3889E-13 -5.8340E-15 9.5465E-15 2.1209E-13 5.2009E-12 3.1968E-15 -5.8340E-15 1.3222E-13 -7.1939E-14 -3.7964E-15 -7.8196E-14 -5.0988E-15 9.5465E-15 -7.1939E-14 5.3916E-14 4.7500E-15 1.2938E-13 -1.2346E-13 2.1209E-13 -3.7964E-15 4.7500E-15 2.1808E-13 2.7648E-12 -2.7938E-12 5.2009E-12 -7.8196E-14 1.2938E-13 2.7648E-12 7.0314E-11 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 -2.777096 48.891231 -0.096734 -0.047561 -0.983583 2456978.818008 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2456970.5000 = 2014/11/09 Mean Anomaly: 328.21271 +/- 0.207 Argument of Peri: 331.86428 +/- 0.246 Long of Asc Node: 113.42016 +/- 0.009 Inclination: 3.00652 +/- 0.000 Eccentricity: 0.06959267 +/- 0.0002 Semi-Major Axis: 44.28878082 +/- 0.0030 Time of Perihelion: 2466476.3308 +/- 61.9 Perihelion: 41.20660610 +/- 0.0097 Aphelion: 47.37095554 +/- 0.0098 Period (y) 294.7466 +/- 0.03 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X 27.33294623 +/- 0.0005 Ecliptic Y 31.47493633 +/- 0.0006 Ecliptic Z -1.97437736 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic XDOT -0.00213359 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic YDOT 0.00171552 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic ZDOT 0.00006702 +/- 0.0000 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 41.73319701 +/- 0.0006 Geocenter to KBO 40.75040250 +/- 0.0008 # Hcoef: 7.32
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15VA172. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15VA172) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2014 11 17.31723 03 08 53.390 +14 46 04.82 23.4r 15VA172 568 C~2nwB 2014 11 17.42609 03 08 52.856 +14 46 02.78 23.4r 15VA172 568 C~2nwB 2014 11 17.54029 03 08 52.290 +14 46 00.62 23.3r 15VA172 568 C~2nwB 2014 11 19.33914 03 08 43.499 +14 45 26.34 23.5r 15VA172 568 C~2nwB 2014 11 23.44182 03 08 23.606 +14 44 09.86 23.4r 15VA172 568 C~2nwB 2015 08 11.60150 03 18 54.443 +15 31 27.15 23.9w 15VA172 568 C~2nwB 2015 09 06.61481 03 18 53.840 +15 29 49.50 23.7w 15VA172 568 C~2nwB 2015 09 12.50491 03 18 44.959 +15 28 55.11 23.7w 15VA172 568 C~2nwB 2015 10 07.42821 03 17 35.471 +15 23 16.06 23.7w 15VA172 568 C~2nwB 2015 10 08.44001 03 17 31.698 +15 22 59.21 23.8w 15VA172 568 C~2nwB 2015 10 08.49908 03 17 31.473 +15 22 58.28 23.9w 15VA172 568 C~2nwB 2015 11 07.34843 03 15 18.245 +15 13 43.48 23.5r 15VA172 568 C~2nwB 2015 11 07.39058 03 15 18.032 +15 13 42.64 23.5r 15VA172 568 C~2nwB 2015 11 07.43274 03 15 17.820 +15 13 41.83 23.4r 15VA172 568 C~2nwB 2015 11 10.51713 03 15 02.599 +15 12 42.26 23.6w 15VA172 568 C~2nwC 2015 11 10.54648 03 15 02.449 +15 12 41.68 23.5w 15VA172 568 C~2nwC 2015 11 17.36382 03 14 28.709 +15 10 31.60 23.7w 15VA172 568 C~2nwC 2015 11 17.41043 03 14 28.478 +15 10 30.79 23.6w 15VA172 568 C~2nwC 2015 12 06.37266 03 12 58.148 +15 04 59.57 23.7w 15VA172 568 C~2nwC 2015 12 06.52203 03 12 57.455 +15 04 57.21 23.3w 15VA172 568 C~2nwC 2015 12 13.30706 03 12 28.190 +15 03 16.52 23.9w 15VA172 568 C~2nwC 2015 12 13.36559 03 12 27.945 +15 03 15.69 23.8w 15VA172 568 C~2nwC 2016 01 01.36029 03 11 20.692 +14 59 46.32 23.9w 15VA172 568 C~2nwC 2016 01 07.30705 03 11 05.146 +14 59 06.40 23.7w 15VA172 568 C~2nwC 2016 02 04.34036 03 10 35.425 +14 59 07.18 23.7w 15VA172 568 C~2nwC 2016 02 11.22942 03 10 39.907 +14 59 56.23 23.7w 15VA172 568 C~2nwC 2016 09 27.50655 03 23 40.922 +15 49 01.82 23.7w 15VA172 568 C~2nwC 2016 10 10.44325 03 22 56.411 +15 45 44.13 24.0w 15VA172 568 C~2nwC 2016 10 10.50202 03 22 56.181 +15 45 43.15 24.1w 15VA172 568 C~2nwC 2016 10 10.51973 03 22 56.108 +15 45 42.89 23.9w 15VA172 568 C~2nwC 2016 11 02.51417 03 21 14.233 +15 38 49.08 23.5w 15VA172 568 C~2nwC 2016 11 04.38927 03 21 05.122 +15 38 13.65 23.6w 15VA172 568 C~2nwC 2016 12 24.31885 03 17 16.577 +15 24 51.54 24.0w 15VA172 568 C~2nwC 2016 12 24.33677 03 17 16.512 +15 24 51.38 23.7w 15VA172 568 C~2nwC 2017 01 02.42106 03 16 47.546 +15 23 29.85 23.7w 15VA172 568 C~2nwC 2017 01 02.43952 03 16 47.488 +15 23 29.67 23.7w 15VA172 568 C~2nwC 2017 01 26.34976 03 16 05.050 +15 22 21.58 23.7w 15VA172 568 C~2nwC 2017 09 17.59434 03 29 41.765 +16 13 53.21 23.6w 15VA172 568 C~2nwC 2017 09 23.57295 03 29 28.023 +16 12 45.72 23.6w 15VA172 568 C~2nwC 2017 12 16.35926 03 23 23.244 +15 49 57.64 23.9w 15VA172 568 C~2nwC 2017 12 16.37785 03 23 23.174 +15 49 57.40 23.9w 15VA172 568 C~2nwC
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 -0.13 0.00 -0.01
2 0.0003 -8.01 0.01 0.13 -0.01
3 0.0006 -16.50 0.06 0.27 0.02
4 0.0055 -148.53 -0.03 1.77 -0.02
5 0.0168 -447.02 0.16 6.30 -0.03
6 0.7318 9118.72 0.05 318.90 -0.06
7 0.8030 9084.90 0.03 226.76 0.04
8 0.8191 8946.54 0.04 207.54 0.01
9 0.8874 7886.43 -0.07 141.63 0.02
10 0.8901 7829.27 -0.03 139.60 0.00
11 0.8903 7825.88 0.02 139.55 0.04
12 0.9720 5818.10 0.05 109.64 -0.06
13 0.9721 5814.91 0.01 109.65 -0.08
14 0.9723 5811.73 -0.01 109.67 -0.07
15 0.9807 5583.34 -0.01 110.29 0.02
16 0.9808 5581.09 -0.05 110.30 0.02
17 0.9994 5075.33 -0.02 113.82 -0.01
18 0.9996 5071.89 0.05 113.93 0.04
19 1.0515 3722.28 0.04 141.48 -0.00
20 1.0519 3711.97 -0.15 141.88 0.06
21 1.0705 3276.46 -0.07 157.72 0.04
22 1.0706 3272.82 -0.04 157.86 0.02
23 1.1226 2277.81 0.03 216.45 -0.02
24 1.1389 2050.07 0.05 238.35 -0.01
25 1.2157 1635.39 -0.08 354.68 0.04
26 1.2345 1711.13 0.00 384.48 0.03
27 1.8623 13401.14 -0.02 276.00 0.00
28 1.8977 12726.81 -0.02 248.22 -0.02
29 1.8978 12723.34 0.01 248.12 -0.04
30 1.8979 12722.25 -0.02 248.13 0.00
31 1.9608 11189.12 -0.00 224.41 0.08
32 1.9660 11052.43 0.01 223.97 0.02
33 2.1027 7647.27 0.07 305.25 0.01
34 2.1027 7646.32 0.07 305.34 0.03
35 2.1276 7220.14 -0.00 336.22 -0.02
36 2.1276 7219.28 -0.08 336.26 -0.04
37 2.1931 6608.45 0.09 431.53 0.03
38 2.8344 18844.56 -0.02 417.20 -0.02
39 2.8508 18634.37 0.01 400.63 0.01
40 3.0802 13167.63 -0.07 395.07 -0.01
41 3.0802 13166.59 0.05 395.09 -0.05
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15VA172 quality flag:3 Type: CLASSICAL CLASSICAL CLASSICAL axisobj 44.624 44.632 44.616 ecceobj 0.073 0.073 0.073 incobj 3.008 3.008 3.008 qmin 40.120 40.127 40.111 qmax 48.647 48.664 48.666 amean 44.266 44.275 44.258 amin 43.919 43.923 43.904 amax 44.642 44.641 44.628 emean 0.075 0.075 0.074 emin 0.058 0.059 0.058 emax 0.090 0.091 0.091 imean 1.731 1.729 1.733 imin 1.009 1.010 1.008 imax 2.381 2.381 2.382 excite_mean 0.081 0.081 0.081 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 3.097 3.097 3.097 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 179.8 179.8 179.5 kozaiamp 180.0 180.0 180.0