The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15VA173 # Created Tue Apr 1 01:10:42 2025 # Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism # Fitting 41 observations of 41 # Arc: 3.08y # First observation: 2014/11/17 # Last observation: 2017/12/16 Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 0.000057 0.023023 -0.000001 -0.000350 0.023891 0.000000 # Chi-squared of fit: 6.48 DOF: 76 RMS: 0.07 # Min/Max residuals: -0.28 0.21 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 1.530365E-05 2.318492E-02 -7.409354E-08 -3.520644E-04 2.399084E-02 8.042072E-05 # Covariance matrix: 2.8710E-13 -3.1215E-13 -1.3191E-15 3.0523E-15 -1.3782E-13 -3.0897E-12 -3.1215E-13 4.5634E-13 2.2567E-15 -5.2761E-15 2.4358E-13 5.3262E-12 -1.3191E-15 2.2567E-15 1.5055E-13 -7.7398E-14 1.1203E-15 2.9387E-14 3.0523E-15 -5.2761E-15 -7.7398E-14 5.2427E-14 -3.6217E-15 -7.0229E-14 -1.3782E-13 2.4358E-13 1.1203E-15 -3.6217E-15 2.6479E-13 3.3905E-12 -3.0897E-12 5.3262E-12 2.9387E-14 -7.0229E-14 3.3905E-12 7.0493E-11 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 -1.482566 48.281479 -0.106497 -0.025306 -0.983402 2456978.777218 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2456970.5000 = 2014/11/09 Mean Anomaly: 20.26174 +/- 1.881 Argument of Peri: 218.38066 +/- 1.924 Long of Asc Node: 169.36013 +/- 0.017 Inclination: 1.68845 +/- 0.000 Eccentricity: 0.01016039 +/- 0.0001 Semi-Major Axis: 43.07511816 +/- 0.0026 Time of Perihelion: 2451158.6772 +/- 539.6 Perihelion: 42.63745836 +/- 0.0065 Aphelion: 43.51277796 +/- 0.0066 Period (y) 282.7144 +/- 0.03 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X 28.30130300 +/- 0.0006 Ecliptic Y 31.90907401 +/- 0.0007 Ecliptic Z -1.07845986 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic XDOT -0.00197381 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic YDOT 0.00176186 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic ZDOT -0.00004030 +/- 0.0000 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 42.66515946 +/- 0.0006 Geocenter to KBO 41.68257040 +/- 0.0009 # Hcoef: 8.15
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15VA173. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15VA173) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2014 11 17.27644 03 04 59.645 +15 50 49.93 24.7r 15VA173 568 C~2nwF 2014 11 17.38513 03 04 59.106 +15 50 47.85 24.6r 15VA173 568 C~2nwF 2014 11 17.49897 03 04 58.553 +15 50 45.53 24.9r 15VA173 568 C~2nwF 2014 11 23.39103 03 04 30.422 +15 48 50.34 24.4r 15VA173 568 C~2nwF 2015 09 12.51312 03 14 36.375 +16 29 35.80 24.5w 15VA173 568 C~2nwF 2015 10 07.43992 03 13 25.788 +16 24 11.79 24.3w 15VA173 568 C~2nwF 2015 10 07.44703 03 13 25.765 +16 24 11.68 24.3w 15VA173 568 C~2nwF 2015 10 08.45165 03 13 21.995 +16 23 55.34 25.0w 15VA173 568 C~2nwF 2015 10 08.51072 03 13 21.770 +16 23 54.22 23.7w 15VA173 568 C~2nwF 2015 11 07.35903 03 11 09.475 +16 14 40.20 24.4r 15VA173 568 C~2nwF 2015 11 07.40112 03 11 09.256 +16 14 39.34 24.3r 15VA173 568 C~2nwF 2015 11 07.44330 03 11 09.055 +16 14 38.52 24.4r 15VA173 568 C~2nwF 2015 11 10.52886 03 10 54.036 +16 13 37.50 24.6w 15VA173 568 C~2nwF 2015 11 17.37547 03 10 20.691 +16 11 23.19 24.5w 15VA173 568 C~2nwF 2015 11 17.42215 03 10 20.462 +16 11 22.20 24.3w 15VA173 568 C~2nwF 2015 12 06.38432 03 08 52.032 +16 05 33.86 24.5w 15VA173 568 C~2nwF 2015 12 13.31874 03 08 22.874 +16 03 41.96 24.4w 15VA173 568 C~2nwF 2015 12 13.37723 03 08 22.629 +16 03 41.09 24.8w 15VA173 568 C~2nwF 2016 01 01.37186 03 07 17.595 +15 59 42.05 24.8w 15VA173 568 C~2nwF 2016 01 07.31862 03 07 02.728 +15 58 51.29 24.8w 15VA173 568 C~2nwF 2016 02 04.29505 03 06 35.625 +15 57 54.76 25.1w 15VA173 568 C~2nwF 2016 02 04.30157 03 06 35.653 +15 57 54.94 24.6w 15VA173 568 C~2nwF 2016 02 10.28486 03 06 39.619 +15 58 23.41 24.7w 15VA173 568 C~2nwF 2016 09 06.60560 03 20 02.226 +16 49 36.72 24.9w 15VA173 568 C~2nwF 2016 09 26.59656 03 19 19.386 +16 46 12.17 25.0w 15VA173 568 C~2nwF 2016 10 10.40230 03 18 32.050 +16 42 48.13 24.8w 15VA173 568 C~2nwF 2016 10 10.46065 03 18 31.824 +16 42 47.20 24.6w 15VA173 568 C~2nwF 2016 10 27.49679 03 17 18.756 +16 37 46.43 24.8w 15VA173 568 C~2nwF 2016 11 02.60285 03 16 49.944 +16 35 50.59 24.6w 15VA173 568 C~2nwF 2016 11 03.52184 03 16 45.546 +16 35 33.17 24.7w 15VA173 568 C~2nwF 2016 12 24.29598 03 12 58.139 +16 21 06.88 25.0w 15VA173 568 C~2nwF 2016 12 24.30148 03 12 58.121 +16 21 06.80 15VA173 568 C~2nwF 2017 01 02.39822 03 12 30.227 +16 19 30.23 24.8w 15VA173 568 C~2nwF 2017 01 02.40371 03 12 30.206 +16 19 30.16 24.6w 15VA173 568 C~2nwF 2017 01 26.32220 03 11 50.299 +16 17 36.52 24.4w 15VA173 568 C~2nwF 2017 09 16.60944 03 25 04.559 +17 07 01.79 24.8w 15VA173 568 C~2nwF 2017 09 17.60038 03 25 02.501 +17 06 52.13 24.7w 15VA173 568 C~2nwF 2017 09 23.54857 03 24 48.432 +17 05 47.92 15VA173 568 C~2nwF 2017 09 23.57901 03 24 48.367 +17 05 47.71 24.6w 15VA173 568 C~2nwF 2017 09 24.59522 03 24 45.660 +17 05 35.87 24.7w 15VA173 568 C~2nwF 2017 12 16.39181 03 18 48.067 +16 42 28.99 24.4w 15VA173 568 C~2nwF
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 -0.00 0.00 -0.03
2 0.0003 -8.05 -0.08 0.14 0.05
3 0.0006 -16.36 -0.02 0.11 -0.02
4 0.0167 -438.35 0.03 1.20 -0.09
5 0.8193 8633.05 -0.00 -0.15 -0.00
6 0.8875 7566.39 0.00 -43.92 -0.00
7 0.8875 7566.04 0.06 -43.94 -0.01
8 0.8903 7509.32 -0.10 -45.30 0.04
9 0.8904 7505.90 -0.10 -45.52 -0.12
10 0.9722 5520.68 0.21 -71.54 -0.02
11 0.9723 5517.41 0.05 -71.52 -0.01
12 0.9724 5514.39 0.15 -71.54 -0.02
13 0.9808 5289.50 -0.01 -72.32 -0.04
14 0.9996 4790.48 0.01 -72.66 0.06
15 0.9997 4787.04 0.01 -72.73 -0.03
16 1.0516 3465.61 0.07 -64.33 0.10
17 1.0706 3030.64 0.08 -58.16 -0.01
18 1.0708 3027.00 0.03 -58.03 0.04
19 1.1228 2059.59 -0.02 -33.14 0.10
20 1.1391 1839.48 0.03 -23.53 0.05
21 1.2157 1448.02 -0.28 28.82 0.01
22 1.2157 1448.46 0.12 28.89 0.05
23 1.2321 1511.26 -0.05 40.64 0.03
24 1.8051 13480.89 -0.06 -61.39 -0.01
25 1.8599 12831.14 -0.03 -100.50 0.01
26 1.8977 12118.96 -0.04 -121.70 0.04
27 1.8978 12115.57 0.02 -121.76 0.04
28 1.9445 11020.09 0.00 -139.27 -0.02
29 1.9612 10588.89 -0.09 -143.01 -0.14
30 1.9637 10523.14 0.03 -143.30 -0.00
31 2.1027 7133.11 -0.02 -116.55 0.01
32 2.1027 7132.84 -0.00 -116.56 -0.01
33 2.1276 6719.64 0.03 -102.77 -0.01
34 2.1277 6719.33 -0.05 -102.76 -0.01
35 2.1931 6134.75 -0.06 -58.96 0.00
36 2.8318 17967.63 -0.00 -153.95 0.01
37 2.8346 17936.41 -0.03 -155.90 0.03
38 2.8508 17723.46 -0.13 -167.38 -0.09
39 2.8509 17722.50 0.15 -167.35 -0.02
40 2.8537 17681.66 0.00 -169.05 0.13
41 3.0804 12337.02 0.11 -199.94 -0.07
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15VA173 quality flag:3 Type: CLASSICAL CLASSICAL CLASSICAL axisobj 43.399 43.407 43.391 ecceobj 0.018 0.019 0.018 incobj 1.683 1.683 1.683 qmin 41.324 41.315 41.354 qmax 44.968 44.984 44.969 amean 43.075 43.083 43.068 amin 42.745 42.752 42.741 amax 43.412 43.422 43.401 emean 0.021 0.021 0.021 emin 0.000 0.001 0.002 emax 0.036 0.036 0.036 imean 2.656 2.651 2.662 imin 1.665 1.665 1.668 imax 3.370 3.362 3.376 excite_mean 0.051 0.051 0.051 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 3.087 3.087 3.087 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 185.6 185.9 185.7 kozaiamp 180.0 180.0 180.0