The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15VD157 # Created Sun Dec 22 02:10:32 2024 # Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism # Fitting 33 observations of 33 # Arc: 2.09y # First observation: 2015/08/20 # Last observation: 2017/09/20 Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: -0.000114 0.035249 -0.000001 0.000515 0.029324 0.000000 # Chi-squared of fit: 12.37 DOF: 60 RMS: 0.11 # Min/Max residuals: -0.29 0.27 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 1.903847E-05 3.437491E-02 2.045228E-07 5.020293E-04 2.883590E-02 -4.441426E-03 # Covariance matrix: 1.8676E-13 -6.9983E-14 2.7147E-16 4.0624E-16 1.0914E-13 5.2970E-13 -6.9983E-14 4.6921E-13 -1.0038E-15 6.1813E-15 1.7945E-13 7.4461E-12 2.7147E-16 -1.0038E-15 9.7577E-14 -8.2478E-14 -1.6553E-16 -2.0737E-14 4.0624E-16 6.1813E-15 -8.2478E-14 1.2394E-13 3.4232E-15 1.3380E-13 1.0914E-13 1.7945E-13 -1.6553E-16 3.4232E-15 2.1199E-13 4.1704E-12 5.2970E-13 7.4461E-12 -2.0737E-14 1.3380E-13 4.1704E-12 1.6130E-10 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 -0.325820 52.764194 1.011605 -0.000308 -0.077784 2457255.076589 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2457250.5000 = 2015/08/16 Mean Anomaly: 339.38114 +/- 0.030 Argument of Peri: 18.42849 +/- 0.070 Long of Asc Node: 72.43646 +/- 0.013 Inclination: 0.89307 +/- 0.001 Eccentricity: 0.31167852 +/- 0.0003 Semi-Major Axis: 47.73596841 +/- 0.0094 Time of Perihelion: 2464150.1826 +/- 10.0 Perihelion: 32.85769265 +/- 0.0147 Aphelion: 62.61424417 +/- 0.0181 Period (y) 329.8199 +/- 0.10 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X 21.83220426 +/- 0.0003 Ecliptic Y 27.05899534 +/- 0.0004 Ecliptic Z -0.19717739 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic XDOT -0.00285544 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic YDOT 0.00163301 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic ZDOT 0.00005012 +/- 0.0000 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 34.76885460 +/- 0.0004 Geocenter to KBO 34.67899851 +/- 0.0006 # Hcoef: 9.17
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15VD157. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15VD157) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2015 08 20.57580 03 21 47.814 +18 08 51.92 15VD157 568 C~2Wao 2015 09 07.61675 03 21 42.255 +18 08 26.03 25.0w 15VD157 568 C~2Wao 2015 09 12.46786 03 21 34.516 +18 07 55.60 25.1w 15VD157 568 C~2Wao 2015 09 12.48036 03 21 34.496 +18 07 55.68 25.2w 15VD157 568 C~2Wao 2015 10 07.52101 03 20 16.149 +18 02 57.71 15VD157 568 C~2Wao 2015 10 07.58040 03 20 15.888 +18 02 56.71 24.8w 15VD157 568 C~2Wao 2015 10 09.56029 03 20 07.286 +18 02 24.14 15VD157 568 C~2Wao 2015 11 07.33264 03 17 36.321 +17 52 53.28 24.3r 15VD157 568 C~2Wao 2015 11 07.37479 03 17 36.068 +17 52 52.35 24.2r 15VD157 568 C~2Wao 2015 11 07.41697 03 17 35.830 +17 52 51.41 24.4r 15VD157 568 C~2Wao 2015 11 10.49950 03 17 17.878 +17 51 43.42 24.5w 15VD157 568 C~2Wao 2015 11 17.34635 03 16 37.886 +17 49 11.86 24.7w 15VD157 568 C~2Wao 2015 11 17.39294 03 16 37.610 +17 49 10.83 24.5w 15VD157 568 C~2Wao 2015 12 06.35508 03 14 50.793 +17 42 26.23 24.6w 15VD157 568 C~2Wao 2015 12 06.49265 03 14 50.063 +17 42 23.62 24.7w 15VD157 568 C~2Wao 2016 01 01.34294 03 12 56.223 +17 35 15.80 25.1w 15VD157 568 C~2Wao 2016 01 07.40549 03 12 37.922 +17 34 08.70 25.2w 15VD157 568 C~2Wao 2016 01 08.25043 03 12 35.675 +17 34 00.23 25.0w 15VD157 568 C~2Wao 2016 02 05.28189 03 12 07.055 +17 32 31.33 24.9w 15VD157 568 C~2Wao 2016 02 10.30227 03 12 11.839 +17 32 54.61 25.1w 15VD157 568 C~2Wao 2016 09 07.59677 03 29 48.274 +18 39 45.43 24.9w 15VD157 568 C~2Wao 2016 09 27.52706 03 29 02.735 +18 36 59.89 24.7w 15VD157 568 C~2Wao 2016 10 07.51560 03 28 25.045 +18 34 44.27 24.9w 15VD157 568 C~2Wao 2016 10 07.61130 03 28 24.616 +18 34 42.62 24.5w 15VD157 568 C~2Wao 2016 10 09.51605 03 28 16.462 +18 34 13.54 24.8w 15VD157 568 C~2Wao 2016 10 09.58836 03 28 16.141 +18 34 12.30 24.8w 15VD157 568 C~2Wao 2016 11 02.50259 03 26 13.295 +18 26 50.73 24.6w 15VD157 568 C~2Wao 2016 11 04.45547 03 26 02.091 +18 26 10.30 24.5w 15VD157 568 C~2Wao 2016 11 04.47870 03 26 01.954 +18 26 09.88 24.4w 15VD157 568 C~2Wao 2016 12 28.44773 03 21 13.607 +18 08 50.80 24.7w 15VD157 568 C~2Wao 2017 01 27.31434 03 20 05.355 +18 04 57.29 25.3w 15VD157 568 C~2Wao 2017 09 15.55809 03 37 51.610 +19 09 26.94 24.5w 15VD157 568 C~2Wao 2017 09 20.60688 03 37 40.856 +19 08 50.25 25.1w 15VD157 568 C~2Wao
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 -0.04 0.00 0.01
2 0.0494 -83.21 -0.16 -4.97 -0.05
3 0.0627 -197.64 0.07 -6.44 -0.29
4 0.0627 -197.90 0.17 -6.29 -0.15
5 0.1313 -1354.08 0.03 -10.22 -0.06
6 0.1314 -1357.93 -0.00 -10.23 -0.09
7 0.1369 -1484.87 -0.04 -10.39 -0.12
8 0.2156 -3713.72 -0.07 -8.17 0.12
9 0.2157 -3717.45 -0.14 -8.13 0.12
10 0.2159 -3720.98 0.00 -8.16 0.06
11 0.2243 -3986.22 -0.25 -7.46 0.01
12 0.2430 -4577.28 0.13 -5.59 -0.01
13 0.2432 -4581.35 0.14 -5.56 -0.02
14 0.2951 -6161.01 -0.12 2.39 0.04
15 0.2955 -6171.77 0.07 2.61 0.16
16 0.3662 -7856.19 -0.07 18.77 0.15
17 0.3828 -8126.71 0.27 23.41 0.26
18 0.3851 -8159.99 0.05 23.76 0.01
19 0.4619 -8578.90 -0.13 46.74 0.05
20 0.4756 -8506.63 0.04 51.00 0.08
21 1.0514 7087.01 0.10 99.91 0.04
22 1.1060 6418.22 -0.06 96.69 -0.02
23 1.1333 5865.00 0.08 95.94 -0.08
24 1.1336 5858.68 -0.18 95.83 -0.21
25 1.1388 5739.05 0.09 95.99 0.03
26 1.1390 5734.32 0.10 95.91 -0.08
27 1.2045 3931.02 -0.02 97.85 0.01
28 1.2098 3766.48 -0.00 98.15 -0.06
29 1.2099 3764.49 0.01 98.22 0.01
30 1.3576 -471.92 -0.13 122.60 0.03
31 1.4394 -1472.36 0.04 144.72 -0.02
32 2.0725 14192.07 -0.02 204.70 -0.03
33 2.0863 14034.60 -0.01 204.30 0.10
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15VD157 quality flag:3 Type: 2:1E 2:1E 2:1E axisobj 48.258 48.274 48.242 ecceobj 0.316 0.316 0.315 incobj 0.892 0.892 0.892 qmin 32.429 32.421 32.432 qmax 63.964 63.917 63.934 amean 47.798 47.798 47.798 amin 47.319 47.335 47.323 amax 48.415 48.387 48.417 emean 0.308 0.308 0.307 emin 0.295 0.295 0.295 emax 0.321 0.321 0.321 imean 0.835 0.811 0.873 imin 0.453 0.454 0.452 imax 1.386 1.378 1.370 excite_mean 0.308 0.308 0.308 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 3.027 3.027 3.027 libcent 0 71.0 70.7 71.2 libamp 0 9.0 6.2 12.1 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 181.6 182.2 180.6 kozaiamp 180.0 180.0 180.0