The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15VD165 # Created Sun Dec 22 02:10:33 2024 # Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism # Fitting 37 observations of 37 # Arc: 2.27y # First observation: 2015/09/07 # Last observation: 2017/12/16 Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: -0.000056 0.024678 -0.000016 0.005246 0.025685 0.000000 # Chi-squared of fit: 5.75 DOF: 68 RMS: 0.07 # Min/Max residuals: -0.18 0.18 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 1.540386E-05 2.432676E-02 3.508329E-06 5.147805E-03 2.547000E-02 -5.103739E-03 # Covariance matrix: 1.7312E-13 -2.1491E-14 -4.6094E-15 1.7078E-14 1.1621E-13 1.6393E-12 -2.1491E-14 2.3809E-13 -1.5726E-14 5.8665E-14 1.4965E-13 5.5940E-12 -4.6094E-15 -1.5726E-14 1.0106E-13 -7.8796E-14 -1.4739E-14 -5.8523E-13 1.7078E-14 5.8665E-14 -7.8796E-14 1.0984E-13 5.4849E-14 2.1837E-12 1.1621E-13 1.4965E-13 -1.4739E-14 5.4849E-14 2.2437E-13 5.2427E-12 1.6393E-12 5.5940E-12 -5.8523E-13 2.1837E-12 5.2427E-12 2.0818E-10 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 -0.002489 51.938122 0.933277 0.000132 -0.388867 2457273.129809 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2457270.5000 = 2015/09/05 Mean Anomaly: 282.16948 +/- 0.070 Argument of Peri: 103.78041 +/- 0.031 Long of Asc Node: 50.60464 +/- 0.000 Inclination: 12.02167 +/- 0.001 Eccentricity: 0.22584893 +/- 0.0005 Semi-Major Axis: 39.54062872 +/- 0.0103 Time of Perihelion: 2476904.6101 +/- 15.9 Perihelion: 30.61042000 +/- 0.0229 Aphelion: 48.47083745 +/- 0.0249 Period (y) 248.6415 +/- 0.10 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X 25.17592314 +/- 0.0005 Ecliptic Y 30.64318898 +/- 0.0006 Ecliptic Z -0.00156044 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic XDOT -0.00239896 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic YDOT 0.00117380 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic ZDOT 0.00055343 +/- 0.0000 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 39.65894778 +/- 0.0005 Geocenter to KBO 39.26187180 +/- 0.0007 # Hcoef: 8.49
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15VD165. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15VD165) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2015 09 07.62902 03 18 05.168 +18 14 56.60 24.5w 15VD165 568 C~2lVZ 2015 09 12.49264 03 17 56.580 +18 14 38.59 24.9w 15VD165 568 C~2lVZ 2015 10 07.53854 03 16 39.191 +18 10 58.99 24.7w 15VD165 568 C~2lVZ 2015 10 07.59790 03 16 38.947 +18 10 58.26 24.5w 15VD165 568 C~2lVZ 2015 10 09.57780 03 16 30.762 +18 10 32.88 24.6w 15VD165 568 C~2lVZ 2015 11 07.33264 03 14 09.879 +18 02 56.33 24.5r 15VD165 568 C~2lVZ 2015 11 07.37479 03 14 09.651 +18 02 55.62 24.3r 15VD165 568 C~2lVZ 2015 11 07.41697 03 14 09.421 +18 02 55.07 24.4r 15VD165 568 C~2lVZ 2015 11 10.49950 03 13 52.848 +18 01 59.90 24.4w 15VD165 568 C~2lVZ 2015 11 17.34635 03 13 15.965 +17 59 56.74 24.4w 15VD165 568 C~2lVZ 2015 11 17.39294 03 13 15.715 +17 59 55.94 24.7w 15VD165 568 C~2lVZ 2015 12 06.35508 03 11 37.439 +17 54 27.28 24.7w 15VD165 568 C~2lVZ 2015 12 06.49265 03 11 36.755 +17 54 25.22 24.4w 15VD165 568 C~2lVZ 2016 01 01.34294 03 09 51.242 +17 48 43.23 24.9w 15VD165 568 C~2lVZ 2016 01 08.25043 03 09 31.770 +17 47 45.56 24.8w 15VD165 568 C~2lVZ 2016 02 05.28189 03 09 01.005 +17 47 02.72 24.8w 15VD165 568 C~2lVZ 2016 02 10.30227 03 09 04.217 +17 47 29.39 24.5w 15VD165 568 C~2lVZ 2016 09 07.57363 03 23 27.666 +18 53 30.30 25.1w 15VD165 568 C~2lVZ 2016 09 27.51061 03 22 39.379 +18 51 41.28 24.6w 15VD165 568 C~2lVZ 2016 09 29.48481 03 22 32.694 +18 51 23.10 24.9w 15VD165 568 C~2lVZ 2016 10 05.48792 03 22 10.471 +18 50 21.36 24.4w 15VD165 568 C~2lVZ 2016 10 07.49247 03 22 02.455 +18 49 58.64 24.6w 15VD165 568 C~2lVZ 2016 10 07.58817 03 22 02.046 +18 49 57.55 24.6w 15VD165 568 C~2lVZ 2016 10 09.49252 03 21 54.180 +18 49 34.74 24.9w 15VD165 568 C~2lVZ 2016 10 09.56525 03 21 53.869 +18 49 33.81 24.5w 15VD165 568 C~2lVZ 2016 11 02.53154 03 19 57.800 +18 43 39.28 24.7w 15VD165 568 C~2lVZ 2016 11 04.40663 03 19 47.808 +18 43 07.73 24.7w 15VD165 568 C~2lVZ 2016 12 24.30698 03 15 37.876 +18 29 42.04 24.6w 15VD165 568 C~2lVZ 2016 12 24.32550 03 15 37.806 +18 29 41.88 24.9w 15VD165 568 C~2lVZ 2017 01 02.40920 03 15 06.064 +18 28 03.03 24.9w 15VD165 568 C~2lVZ 2017 01 02.42780 03 15 06.012 +18 28 02.90 25.0w 15VD165 568 C~2lVZ 2017 01 26.29981 03 14 19.045 +18 25 59.88 24.6w 15VD165 568 C~2lVZ 2017 01 27.27995 03 14 18.358 +18 25 59.61 24.9w 15VD165 568 C~2lVZ 2017 09 15.56413 03 28 43.550 +19 31 36.41 24.8w 15VD165 568 C~2lVZ 2017 09 20.61305 03 28 31.628 +19 31 13.59 24.7w 15VD165 568 C~2lVZ 2017 12 16.36391 03 21 40.748 +19 11 06.65 24.5w 15VD165 568 C~2lVZ 2017 12 16.37320 03 21 40.703 +19 11 06.53 24.4w 15VD165 568 C~2lVZ
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 -0.06 0.00 -0.06
2 0.0133 -122.84 -0.00 14.20 0.01
3 0.0819 -1244.76 -0.06 87.99 0.03
4 0.0821 -1248.31 -0.01 88.19 0.04
5 0.0875 -1367.55 0.03 94.04 0.01
6 0.1662 -3425.84 0.06 179.33 -0.11
7 0.1663 -3429.17 0.08 179.50 -0.08
8 0.1664 -3432.48 0.13 179.84 0.11
9 0.1749 -3675.10 -0.08 188.92 0.01
10 0.1936 -4215.27 -0.04 209.11 -0.03
11 0.1937 -4218.92 0.03 209.28 -0.01
12 0.2457 -5659.04 -0.06 264.94 -0.01
13 0.2460 -5669.00 -0.04 265.56 0.18
14 0.3168 -7213.51 -0.06 339.57 0.03
15 0.3357 -7497.22 -0.04 358.90 -0.06
16 0.4125 -7932.51 -0.05 436.23 0.08
17 0.4262 -7881.06 0.15 449.53 -0.17
18 1.0019 5024.59 -0.01 1070.01 0.03
19 1.0565 4333.49 -0.00 1136.87 0.05
20 1.0619 4237.04 -0.02 1143.20 -0.18
21 1.0783 3916.07 0.00 1163.10 -0.16
22 1.0838 3800.18 0.04 1169.88 0.03
23 1.0841 3794.29 -0.10 1170.30 0.10
24 1.0893 3680.43 0.02 1176.48 0.06
25 1.0895 3675.93 0.03 1176.70 0.02
26 1.1551 1991.24 0.06 1253.14 -0.04
27 1.1602 1845.93 0.04 1258.95 0.01
28 1.2969 -1794.73 -0.06 1399.92 0.01
29 1.2969 -1795.74 -0.00 1400.03 0.06
30 1.3218 -2257.49 -0.00 1422.88 0.02
31 1.3218 -2258.24 0.11 1422.95 0.05
32 1.3872 -2935.51 -0.04 1479.85 -0.01
33 1.3899 -2945.01 -0.04 1482.16 0.04
34 2.0231 9932.44 0.07 2179.84 0.07
35 2.0369 9763.02 -0.06 2198.78 -0.18
36 2.2744 3823.46 -0.00 2474.85 0.01
37 2.2745 3822.81 -0.02 2474.90 0.03
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15VD165 quality flag:3 Type: 3:2E 3:2E 3:2E axisobj 39.822 39.846 39.798 ecceobj 0.220 0.222 0.219 incobj 11.971 11.971 11.971 qmin 28.695 28.881 28.596 qmax 50.831 50.760 51.047 amean 39.455 39.455 39.455 amin 38.983 38.971 38.983 amax 39.997 40.017 40.004 emean 0.236 0.234 0.238 emin 0.194 0.200 0.193 emax 0.273 0.269 0.277 imean 9.535 9.858 9.174 imin 7.165 7.857 6.514 imax 11.842 11.796 11.745 excite_mean 0.290 0.291 0.288 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 2.956 2.955 2.957 libcent 0 180.6 179.3 180.0 libamp 0 93.6 100.5 86.9 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 84.8 85.5 84.4 kozaiamp 60.5 50.7 69.3