The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15VD168 # Created Fri Nov 22 02:10:33 2024 # Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism # Fitting 32 observations of 32 # Arc: 2.85y # First observation: 2014/11/17 # Last observation: 2017/09/21 Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 0.000738 0.027070 -0.000254 -0.011128 0.026337 0.000000 # Chi-squared of fit: 4.21 DOF: 58 RMS: 0.06 # Min/Max residuals: -0.20 0.13 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 1.673815E-05 2.872324E-02 -7.435308E-06 -1.177422E-02 2.738338E-02 1.898140E-02 # Covariance matrix: 2.5176E-13 -2.8673E-13 -2.9251E-14 7.1982E-14 -1.1981E-13 -2.4765E-12 -2.8673E-13 4.8220E-13 6.1076E-14 -1.4972E-13 2.1076E-13 5.1633E-12 -2.9251E-14 6.1076E-14 1.6853E-13 -1.2038E-13 3.3205E-14 7.9541E-13 7.1982E-14 -1.4972E-13 -1.2038E-13 1.4215E-13 -8.3797E-14 -1.9513E-12 -1.1981E-13 2.1076E-13 3.3205E-14 -8.3797E-14 2.7976E-13 2.8385E-12 -2.4765E-12 5.1633E-12 7.9541E-13 -1.9513E-12 2.8385E-12 6.7261E-11 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 -2.512329 48.922905 -0.096190 -0.043017 -0.983845 2456978.818008 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2456970.5000 = 2014/11/09 Mean Anomaly: 7.66869 +/- 0.014 Argument of Peri: 112.69906 +/- 0.007 Long of Asc Node: 223.14942 +/- 0.000 Inclination: 22.48548 +/- 0.001 Eccentricity: 0.77663934 +/- 0.0003 Semi-Major Axis: 115.08928216 +/- 0.1370 Time of Perihelion: 2447363.9064 +/- 1.4 Perihelion: 25.70641784 +/- 0.0464 Aphelion: 204.47214648 +/- 0.2458 Period (y) 1234.6974 +/- 2.20 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X 24.54372927 +/- 0.0005 Ecliptic Y 28.30917289 +/- 0.0005 Ecliptic Z -1.60105410 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic XDOT -0.00095723 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic YDOT 0.00327237 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic ZDOT -0.00125917 +/- 0.0000 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 37.50156384 +/- 0.0005 Geocenter to KBO 36.51849567 +/- 0.0007 # Hcoef: 8.06
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15VD168. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15VD168) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2014 11 17.31723 03 08 43.165 +15 01 53.25 23.5r 15VD168 568 C~2lVl 2014 11 17.42609 03 08 42.583 +15 01 50.10 24.0r 15VD168 568 C~2lVl 2014 11 17.54029 03 08 41.973 +15 01 46.82 23.8r 15VD168 568 C~2lVl 2014 11 19.33914 03 08 32.491 +15 00 56.91 23.8r 15VD168 568 C~2lVl 2014 11 23.44182 03 08 10.998 +14 59 04.32 23.7r 15VD168 568 C~2lVl 2015 08 11.60150 03 20 29.093 +15 23 07.06 23.9w 15VD168 568 C~2lVl 2015 09 06.61481 03 20 32.958 +15 18 26.98 24.5w 15VD168 568 C~2lVl 2015 09 12.50491 03 20 24.264 +15 16 48.09 23.8w 15VD168 568 C~2lVl 2015 10 07.42821 03 19 12.375 +15 07 51.22 24.1w 15VD168 568 C~2lVl 2015 10 08.44001 03 19 08.404 +15 07 26.01 24.2w 15VD168 568 C~2lVl 2015 10 08.49908 03 19 08.164 +15 07 24.58 24.0w 15VD168 568 C~2lVl 2015 11 07.34843 03 16 47.121 +14 54 03.79 23.9r 15VD168 568 C~2lVl 2015 11 07.39058 03 16 46.894 +14 54 02.61 24.0r 15VD168 568 C~2lVl 2015 11 07.43274 03 16 46.672 +14 54 01.49 23.8r 15VD168 568 C~2lVl 2015 11 10.51713 03 16 30.495 +14 52 36.85 23.8w 15VD168 568 C~2lVl 2015 11 10.54648 03 16 30.341 +14 52 35.99 24.1w 15VD168 568 C~2lVl 2015 11 17.36382 03 15 54.480 +14 49 31.04 24.2w 15VD168 568 C~2lVl 2015 11 17.41043 03 15 54.235 +14 49 29.79 24.1w 15VD168 568 C~2lVl 2015 12 06.37266 03 14 18.349 +14 41 32.06 24.2w 15VD168 568 C~2lVl 2015 12 06.52203 03 14 17.630 +14 41 28.70 23.8w 15VD168 568 C~2lVl 2015 12 13.30706 03 13 46.656 +14 38 58.39 15VD168 568 C~2lVl 2016 01 07.30705 03 12 19.590 +14 32 02.67 24.1w 15VD168 568 C~2lVl 2016 02 11.22942 03 11 56.701 +14 29 47.51 24.0w 15VD168 568 C~2lVl 2016 09 25.60907 03 26 37.582 +14 58 35.42 24.1w 15VD168 568 C~2lVl 2016 10 10.54805 03 25 45.965 +14 52 48.25 24.1w 15VD168 568 C~2lVl 2016 10 10.59680 03 25 45.767 +14 52 46.96 24.0w 15VD168 568 C~2lVl 2016 11 04.48449 03 23 50.389 +14 41 59.57 24.2w 15VD168 568 C~2lVl 2016 12 25.28594 03 19 48.675 +14 22 49.54 24.3w 15VD168 568 C~2lVl 2016 12 28.43907 03 19 37.689 +14 22 01.73 24.5w 15VD168 568 C~2lVl 2017 01 27.29257 03 18 38.033 +14 17 51.85 24.4w 15VD168 568 C~2lVl 2017 09 15.57020 03 33 31.439 +14 48 11.09 23.9w 15VD168 568 C~2lVl 2017 09 21.61548 03 33 18.951 +14 46 14.75 23.9w 15VD168 568 C~2lVl
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 -0.03 0.00 0.13
2 0.0003 -8.97 0.00 -0.75 0.00
3 0.0006 -18.36 0.05 -1.52 -0.08
4 0.0055 -164.12 0.13 -12.37 0.05
5 0.0168 -494.38 -0.11 -36.35 0.04
6 0.7318 10199.98 -0.07 -1471.91 -0.03
7 0.8030 10181.86 -0.20 -1757.30 0.11
8 0.8191 10034.49 0.08 -1820.49 -0.00
9 0.8874 8888.09 0.11 -2070.20 0.04
10 0.8901 8825.91 0.04 -2079.65 -0.04
11 0.8903 8822.17 0.04 -2080.12 0.00
12 0.9720 6637.51 0.04 -2320.60 -0.13
13 0.9721 6634.02 -0.01 -2320.88 -0.14
14 0.9723 6630.62 0.03 -2321.11 -0.11
15 0.9807 6381.87 -0.03 -2341.32 0.04
16 0.9808 6379.48 -0.01 -2341.56 -0.01
17 0.9994 5828.71 -0.05 -2383.47 0.03
18 0.9996 5824.95 0.01 -2383.74 0.01
19 1.0515 4356.37 -0.01 -2477.58 -0.03
20 1.0519 4345.42 0.04 -2478.06 0.08
21 1.0705 3871.98 0.00 -2503.89 -0.04
22 1.1389 2542.64 -0.06 -2568.37 -0.00
23 1.2345 2186.18 -0.01 -2609.88 0.01
24 1.8571 15004.45 0.01 -4259.88 -0.07
25 1.8980 14188.91 -0.02 -4407.49 0.10
26 1.8981 14185.79 -0.03 -4408.02 0.02
27 1.9662 12395.37 0.04 -4609.89 -0.05
28 2.1053 8697.64 0.06 -4819.31 0.01
29 2.1140 8530.74 -0.10 -4824.09 0.01
30 2.1957 7626.99 0.02 -4840.01 -0.01
31 2.8289 20709.93 -0.04 -6364.61 0.07
32 2.8454 20503.89 0.07 -6433.37 0.01
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15VD168 quality flag:3 Type: CENTAURR CENTAURR CENTAURR axisobj 119.435 119.837 119.041 ecceobj 0.785 0.786 0.784 incobj 22.436 22.436 22.436 qmin 24.905 24.829 24.871 qmax 218.128 222.941 235.966 amean 115.328 117.307 119.776 amin 107.163 105.154 112.739 amax 122.073 124.579 131.355 emean 0.775 0.778 0.781 emin 0.755 0.748 0.769 emax 0.787 0.790 0.796 imean 23.859 23.826 24.034 imin 23.037 23.018 22.987 imax 25.029 24.977 25.467 excite_mean 0.874 0.877 0.881 fracstop 0.112 0.128 0.156 cjmean 2.520 2.519 2.522 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 123.0 124.8 125.8 kozaiamp 10.7 11.8 14.3