The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15VD170 # Created Sun Apr 27 01:10:42 2025 # Orbit generated by ELGB # -->Covariance matrix from a Bernstein fit # Fitting 39 observations of 39 # Arc: 9.20y # First observation: 2015/08/20 # Last observation: 2024/11/01 # Chi-squared of fit: 8.66 DOF: 72 RMS: 0.08 # Min/Max residuals: -0.21 0.35 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 1.259667E-05 1.621227E-02 2.369409E-06 2.900635E-03 1.985362E-02 2.268664E-03 # Covariance matrix: 1.8107E-13 -8.0175E-14 8.8000E-15 -1.3598E-14 8.9787E-14 -4.9414E-13 -8.0175E-14 1.1228E-13 -1.2993E-14 2.0887E-14 3.6950E-15 7.7127E-13 8.8000E-15 -1.2993E-14 5.2071E-14 -1.2186E-14 -3.3296E-16 -9.4954E-14 -1.3598E-14 2.0887E-14 -1.2186E-14 1.0912E-14 1.1420E-15 1.5279E-13 8.9787E-14 3.6950E-15 -3.3296E-16 1.1420E-15 1.0217E-13 5.0996E-14 -4.9414E-13 7.7127E-13 -9.4954E-14 1.5279E-13 5.0996E-14 5.6439E-12 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 -0.425106 52.963648 1.011870 -0.000417 -0.074261 2457255.076589 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2457254.5000 = 2015/08/20 Mean Anomaly: 126.53241 +/- 0.053 Argument of Peri: 218.32007 +/- 0.046 Long of Asc Node: 54.19348 +/- 0.000 Inclination: 10.12899 +/- 0.000 Eccentricity: 0.15561862 +/- 0.0001 Semi-Major Axis: 45.60572621 +/- 0.0037 Time of Perihelion: 2417715.4020 +/- 17.3 Perihelion: 38.50862587 +/- 0.0043 Aphelion: 52.70282656 +/- 0.0052 Period (y) 307.9905 +/- 0.04 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X 31.18570858 +/- 0.0005 Ecliptic Y 39.65552461 +/- 0.0006 Ecliptic Z -0.37356586 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic XDOT -0.00159643 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic YDOT 0.00159234 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic ZDOT 0.00039773 +/- 0.0000 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 50.45038095 +/- 0.0006 Geocenter to KBO 50.36859210 +/- 0.0008 # Hcoef: 7.09
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15VD170. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15VD170) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2015 08 20.57580 03 22 42.882 +18 06 07.52 24.4w 15VD170 568 C~2nw4 2015 09 07.61675 03 22 33.739 +18 05 54.97 24.5w 15VD170 568 C~2nw4 2015 10 07.52101 03 21 25.848 +18 02 20.48 24.5w 15VD170 568 C~2nw4 2015 10 07.58040 03 21 25.658 +18 02 19.88 24.4w 15VD170 568 C~2nw4 2015 10 09.56029 03 21 19.182 +18 01 58.33 24.5w 15VD170 568 C~2nw4 2015 11 06.33360 03 19 31.625 +17 55 55.84 24.0r 15VD170 568 C~2nw4 2015 11 06.39716 03 19 31.357 +17 55 55.11 24.1r 15VD170 568 C~2nw4 2015 11 06.40423 03 19 31.311 +17 55 54.88 24.0r 15VD170 568 C~2nw4 2015 11 06.47375 03 19 31.009 +17 55 53.90 24.5r 15VD170 568 C~2nw4 2015 11 07.49015 03 19 26.693 +17 55 39.15 24.4w 15VD170 568 C~2nw4 2015 11 17.47136 03 18 43.820 +17 53 13.56 24.3w 15VD170 568 C~2nw4 2015 11 17.55969 03 18 43.425 +17 53 12.39 24.1w 15VD170 568 C~2nw4 2015 12 06.33759 03 17 25.206 +17 48 48.13 24.3w 15VD170 568 C~2nw4 2015 12 06.47504 03 17 24.659 +17 48 46.39 24.1w 15VD170 568 C~2nw4 2015 12 31.35875 03 16 00.497 +17 44 12.24 24.3w 15VD170 568 C~2nw4 2016 01 07.38812 03 15 43.207 +17 43 20.23 25.0w 15VD170 568 C~2nw4 2016 01 07.42286 03 15 43.118 +17 43 19.79 24.3w 15VD170 568 C~2nw4 2016 01 08.24465 03 15 41.335 +17 43 14.67 24.4w 15VD170 568 C~2nw4 2016 02 04.37827 03 15 11.471 +17 42 16.79 23.5w 15VD170 568 C~2nw4 2016 02 11.24103 03 15 13.447 +17 42 39.07 24.4w 15VD170 568 C~2nw4 2016 09 07.57363 03 26 10.229 +18 29 31.68 15VD170 568 C~2nw4 2016 09 27.51061 03 25 31.713 +18 27 40.16 24.4w 15VD170 568 C~2nw4 2016 09 29.48481 03 25 26.424 +18 27 23.56 24.4w 15VD170 568 C~2nw4 2016 10 05.48792 03 25 08.835 +18 26 28.37 24.3w 15VD170 568 C~2nw4 2016 10 07.49247 03 25 02.514 +18 26 08.35 23.1w 15VD170 568 C~2nw4 2016 10 07.58817 03 25 02.190 +18 26 07.37 24.4w 15VD170 568 C~2nw4 2016 10 09.49252 03 24 55.966 +18 25 47.44 24.4w 15VD170 568 C~2nw4 2016 10 09.56525 03 24 55.720 +18 25 46.72 24.3w 15VD170 568 C~2nw4 2016 11 02.50259 03 23 24.253 +18 20 48.46 24.3w 15VD170 568 C~2nw4 2016 11 04.47870 03 23 15.928 +18 20 20.96 24.3w 15VD170 568 C~2nw4 2016 12 28.42845 03 19 44.471 +18 08 47.58 24.4w 15VD170 568 C~2nw4 2016 12 28.44773 03 19 44.413 +18 08 47.42 24.3w 15VD170 568 C~2nw4 2017 09 15.56413 03 29 36.374 +18 52 21.37 24.3w 15VD170 568 C~2nw4 2017 09 20.61305 03 29 26.757 +18 51 55.35 24.6w 15VD170 568 C~2nw4 2017 12 13.39064 03 24 14.023 +18 35 26.22 24.4w 15VD170 568 C~2nw4 2017 12 13.42791 03 24 13.876 +18 35 25.85 24.3w 15VD170 568 C~2nw4 2024 11 01.378760 03 52 56.024 +21 21 11.61 24.2G 15VD170 G37 C~8SY2 2024 11 01.425880 03 52 55.814 +21 21 11.23 15VD170 G37 C~8SY2 2024 11 01.473860 03 52 55.639 +21 21 10.73 15VD170 G37 C~8SY2
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 0.07 0.00 0.00
2 0.0494 0.00 -0.08 0.00 0.01
3 0.1313 0.00 -0.07 0.00 0.01
4 0.1314 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.04
5 0.1369 0.00 -0.03 0.00 -0.05
6 0.2129 0.00 -0.01 0.00 -0.04
7 0.2131 0.00 0.08 0.00 0.14
8 0.2131 0.00 -0.15 0.00 0.01
9 0.2133 0.00 -0.17 0.00 0.03
10 0.2161 0.00 0.01 0.00 -0.02
11 0.2434 0.00 0.04 0.00 -0.01
12 0.2436 0.00 -0.11 0.00 0.13
13 0.2950 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00
14 0.2954 0.00 0.12 0.00 0.09
15 0.3635 0.00 -0.01 0.00 -0.06
16 0.3828 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.10
17 0.3829 0.00 -0.12 0.00 -0.11
18 0.3851 0.00 -0.11 0.00 -0.03
19 0.4594 0.00 0.35 0.00 0.12
20 0.4782 0.00 -0.04 0.00 -0.02
21 1.0513 0.00 0.07 0.00 0.03
22 1.1059 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.08
23 1.1113 0.00 0.16 0.00 -0.11
24 1.1278 0.00 -0.01 0.00 -0.11
25 1.1332 0.00 0.17 0.00 -0.01
26 1.1335 0.00 0.03 0.00 -0.01
27 1.1387 0.00 -0.04 0.00 -0.07
28 1.1389 0.00 -0.03 0.00 -0.01
29 1.2045 0.00 0.02 0.00 -0.02
30 1.2099 0.00 -0.03 0.00 -0.04
31 1.3576 0.00 -0.02 0.00 -0.03
32 1.3576 0.00 -0.04 0.00 -0.01
33 2.0725 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.02
34 2.0863 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04
35 2.3157 0.00 0.04 0.00 -0.09
36 2.3158 0.00 -0.03 0.00 -0.01
37 9.2014 0.00 0.04 0.00 -0.05
38 9.2015 0.00 -0.21 0.00 0.05
39 9.2016 0.00 0.12 0.00 0.04
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15VD170 quality flag:3 Type: CLASSICAL CLASSICAL CLASSICAL axisobj 46.029 46.029 46.029 ecceobj 0.153 0.153 0.153 incobj 10.085 10.085 10.085 qmin 37.948 37.949 37.947 qmax 53.808 53.812 53.803 amean 45.715 45.716 45.715 amin 45.320 45.322 45.320 amax 46.160 46.158 46.167 emean 0.152 0.152 0.152 emin 0.139 0.139 0.139 emax 0.167 0.167 0.167 imean 8.767 8.767 8.767 imin 8.335 8.335 8.334 imax 9.412 9.409 9.412 excite_mean 0.215 0.215 0.215 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 3.066 3.066 3.066 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 183.8 183.9 183.8 kozaiamp 179.9 180.0 180.0