The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15VD172 # Created Tue Apr 1 01:10:42 2025 # Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism # Fitting 41 observations of 41 # Arc: 3.08y # First observation: 2014/11/17 # Last observation: 2017/12/16 Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: -0.000150 0.025931 -0.000013 0.001926 0.025510 0.000000 # Chi-squared of fit: 4.08 DOF: 76 RMS: 0.06 # Min/Max residuals: -0.19 0.12 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 1.542037E-05 2.583186E-02 1.474672E-06 1.919575E-03 2.560979E-02 -2.861380E-03 # Covariance matrix: 2.4561E-13 -2.8100E-13 8.6295E-15 -1.5735E-14 -1.1791E-13 -2.6496E-12 -2.8100E-13 4.4168E-13 -1.5904E-14 2.9302E-14 2.0001E-13 4.9243E-12 8.6295E-15 -1.5904E-14 1.3267E-13 -7.3305E-14 -8.7844E-15 -2.0181E-13 -1.5735E-14 2.9302E-14 -7.3305E-14 5.6329E-14 1.4537E-14 3.7256E-13 -1.1791E-13 2.0001E-13 -8.7844E-15 1.4537E-14 2.0503E-13 2.4951E-12 -2.6496E-12 4.9243E-12 -2.0181E-13 3.7256E-13 2.4951E-12 6.2587E-11 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 -2.909446 48.962719 -0.095506 -0.049839 -0.983590 2456978.818008 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2456970.5000 = 2014/11/09 Mean Anomaly: 301.03010 +/- 0.028 Argument of Peri: 37.93856 +/- 0.056 Long of Asc Node: 82.72120 +/- 0.003 Inclination: 5.11647 +/- 0.000 Eccentricity: 0.12054988 +/- 0.0003 Semi-Major Axis: 42.16142427 +/- 0.0040 Time of Perihelion: 2473349.9479 +/- 7.6 Perihelion: 37.07886976 +/- 0.0131 Aphelion: 47.24397878 +/- 0.0134 Period (y) 273.7670 +/- 0.04 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X 26.17509356 +/- 0.0004 Ecliptic Y 30.22197836 +/- 0.0005 Ecliptic Z -1.98192047 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic XDOT -0.00228104 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic YDOT 0.00158558 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic ZDOT 0.00022058 +/- 0.0000 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 40.03038231 +/- 0.0005 Geocenter to KBO 39.04757145 +/- 0.0007 # Hcoef: 8.04
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15VD172. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15VD172) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2014 11 17.31723 03 09 19.322 +14 39 35.54 24.1r 15VD172 568 C~2nwC 2014 11 17.42609 03 09 18.746 +14 39 33.45 24.1r 15VD172 568 C~2nwC 2014 11 17.54029 03 09 18.142 +14 39 31.33 24.0r 15VD172 568 C~2nwC 2014 11 19.33914 03 09 08.977 +14 38 57.01 23.8r 15VD172 568 C~2nwC 2014 11 23.44182 03 08 48.182 +14 37 40.60 24.0r 15VD172 568 C~2nwC 2015 08 11.60150 03 19 44.819 +15 30 20.78 24.4w 15VD172 568 C~2nwC 2015 09 06.61481 03 19 44.694 +15 28 58.11 24.0w 15VD172 568 C~2nwC 2015 09 12.50491 03 19 35.538 +15 28 05.92 24.4w 15VD172 568 C~2nwC 2015 10 07.42821 03 18 23.282 +15 22 31.64 24.4w 15VD172 568 C~2nwC 2015 10 08.44001 03 18 19.340 +15 22 14.88 24.1w 15VD172 568 C~2nwC 2015 10 08.49908 03 18 19.106 +15 22 13.89 23.9w 15VD172 568 C~2nwC 2015 11 07.34843 03 15 59.956 +15 12 58.95 24.0r 15VD172 568 C~2nwC 2015 11 07.39058 03 15 59.732 +15 12 58.09 24.3r 15VD172 568 C~2nwC 2015 11 07.43274 03 15 59.513 +15 12 57.25 24.2r 15VD172 568 C~2nwC 2015 11 10.51713 03 15 43.593 +15 11 57.44 24.5w 15VD172 568 C~2nwC 2015 11 10.54648 03 15 43.436 +15 11 56.84 24.1w 15VD172 568 C~2nwC 2015 11 17.36382 03 15 08.134 +15 09 46.57 24.2w 15VD172 568 C~2nwC 2015 11 17.41043 03 15 07.887 +15 09 45.67 24.2w 15VD172 568 C~2nwC 2015 12 06.37266 03 13 33.289 +15 04 15.20 24.4w 15VD172 568 C~2nwC 2015 12 06.52203 03 13 32.559 +15 04 12.93 24.3w 15VD172 568 C~2nwC 2015 12 13.30706 03 13 01.892 +15 02 33.19 24.5w 15VD172 568 C~2nwC 2015 12 13.36559 03 13 01.634 +15 02 32.33 24.3w 15VD172 568 C~2nwC 2016 01 01.36029 03 11 51.055 +14 59 08.98 24.1w 15VD172 568 C~2nwC 2016 01 07.30705 03 11 34.715 +14 58 32.01 24.4w 15VD172 568 C~2nwC 2016 02 04.34036 03 11 03.208 +14 58 54.65 24.6w 15VD172 568 C~2nwC 2016 02 11.22942 03 11 07.781 +14 59 51.10 24.4w 15VD172 568 C~2nwC 2016 09 07.56785 03 25 29.915 +15 57 35.23 15VD172 568 C~2nwC 2016 09 27.50655 03 24 45.434 +15 54 01.39 24.0w 15VD172 568 C~2nwC 2016 10 10.44325 03 23 59.030 +15 50 46.60 24.6w 15VD172 568 C~2nwC 2016 10 10.50202 03 23 58.789 +15 50 45.64 24.5w 15VD172 568 C~2nwC 2016 10 10.51973 03 23 58.716 +15 50 45.38 24.3w 15VD172 568 C~2nwC 2016 11 02.51417 03 22 12.179 +15 43 53.11 24.2w 15VD172 568 C~2nwC 2016 11 04.38927 03 22 02.639 +15 43 17.75 24.2w 15VD172 568 C~2nwC 2016 12 24.33677 03 18 02.630 +15 29 58.35 24.2w 15VD172 568 C~2nwC 2016 12 28.44224 03 17 48.026 +15 29 19.12 24.2w 15VD172 568 C~2nwC 2017 01 02.43952 03 17 32.073 +15 28 39.35 24.7w 15VD172 568 C~2nwC 2017 01 26.34976 03 16 47.130 +15 27 44.22 24.2w 15VD172 568 C~2nwC 2017 09 17.59434 03 31 04.356 +16 24 36.01 24.2w 15VD172 568 C~2nwC 2017 09 23.57295 03 30 50.124 +16 23 31.52 22.7w 15VD172 568 C~2nwC 2017 12 16.35926 03 24 27.520 +16 00 55.48 24.2w 15VD172 568 C~2nwC 2017 12 16.37785 03 24 27.433 +16 00 55.19 24.2w 15VD172 568 C~2nwC
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 0.11 0.00 -0.06
2 0.0003 -8.61 -0.02 0.24 -0.04
3 0.0006 -17.62 -0.13 0.57 0.08
4 0.0055 -154.95 0.01 3.44 -0.04
5 0.0168 -466.17 0.03 11.46 -0.01
6 0.7318 9548.64 0.06 543.00 -0.05
7 0.8030 9525.47 -0.11 463.53 0.01
8 0.8191 9383.81 0.11 447.32 -0.03
9 0.8874 8286.03 0.02 395.40 -0.02
10 0.8901 8226.53 -0.06 394.04 0.01
11 0.8903 8223.00 -0.02 393.97 -0.01
12 0.9720 6132.05 0.09 384.59 0.08
13 0.9721 6128.69 0.02 384.61 0.05
14 0.9723 6125.41 0.04 384.64 0.02
15 0.9807 5887.15 0.02 387.50 0.01
16 0.9808 5884.80 -0.03 387.52 -0.00
17 0.9994 5357.09 0.05 396.41 -0.02
18 0.9996 5353.40 0.02 396.49 -0.03
19 1.0515 3944.19 0.04 440.13 -0.03
20 1.0519 3933.39 -0.19 440.75 0.12
21 1.0705 3478.49 -0.00 462.60 0.01
22 1.0706 3474.66 0.01 462.77 -0.04
23 1.1226 2434.70 -0.01 539.37 0.01
24 1.1389 2196.63 0.02 567.05 0.00
25 1.2157 1762.78 -0.04 711.13 -0.03
26 1.2345 1841.76 0.05 747.76 -0.06
27 1.8077 14801.86 0.07 852.56 0.01
28 1.8623 14123.74 0.03 807.37 -0.00
29 1.8977 13423.60 -0.06 788.35 0.01
30 1.8978 13419.97 -0.04 788.30 0.01
31 1.8979 13418.88 -0.03 788.32 0.03
32 1.9608 11820.85 -0.06 781.15 0.01
33 1.9660 11678.18 0.01 782.19 0.01
34 2.1027 8113.72 -0.02 904.82 0.06
35 2.1140 7899.37 -0.06 921.94 0.05
36 2.1276 7666.04 0.03 943.69 -0.09
37 2.1931 7023.68 -0.00 1060.32 0.07
38 2.8344 19907.62 -0.03 1226.78 0.03
39 2.8508 19691.28 -0.01 1214.42 -0.18
40 3.0802 13977.93 0.09 1274.41 0.02
41 3.0802 13976.64 0.02 1274.44 -0.01
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15VD172 quality flag:2 Type: CLASSICAL SCATNEAR CLASSICAL axisobj 42.445 42.455 42.436 ecceobj 0.119 0.119 0.118 incobj 5.114 5.114 5.114 qmin 36.459 36.132 36.340 qmax 48.213 49.009 48.301 amean 42.170 42.253 42.146 amin 41.774 41.832 41.772 amax 42.566 42.891 42.542 emean 0.105 0.112 0.101 emin 0.078 0.082 0.071 emax 0.134 0.145 0.137 imean 3.611 5.262 3.190 imin 1.078 2.091 0.471 imax 5.883 7.950 5.151 excite_mean 0.125 0.148 0.118 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 3.060 3.053 3.062 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 175.5 179.6 187.1 kozaiamp 180.0 179.9 180.0