Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15VG169

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15VG169   
# Created Tue Apr  1 01:10:40 2025
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting     33 observations of     33
# Arc:   2.19y
# First observation: 2014/11/17
#  Last observation: 2017/01/26
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  -0.000011   0.022465  -0.000000   0.000138   0.023078   0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit:     7.08 DOF:     60 RMS:  0.08
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.26    0.24
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.554270E-05  2.257579E-02  4.325437E-07  1.401190E-04  2.321464E-02  8.821983E-05
# Covariance matrix:
  4.3947E-13 -5.9286E-13  2.7527E-15 -3.8804E-15 -2.6482E-13 -8.0761E-12
 -5.9286E-13  1.0518E-12 -5.5896E-15  8.4419E-15  5.0391E-13  1.7071E-11
  2.7527E-15 -5.5896E-15  2.2555E-13 -1.5516E-13 -3.4765E-15 -1.0289E-13
 -3.8804E-15  8.4419E-15 -1.5516E-13  1.3337E-13  3.9724E-15  1.5850E-13
 -2.6482E-13  5.0391E-13 -3.4765E-15  3.9724E-15  3.9027E-13  9.0897E-12
 -8.0761E-12  1.7071E-11 -1.0289E-13  1.5850E-13  9.0897E-12  3.1795E-10
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
   -2.199004   46.672173   -0.136152   -0.037448   -0.979332  2456978.896128
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2456970.5000  =  2014/11/09
Mean Anomaly:            4.48882 +/-     0.765
Argument of Peri:      274.42793 +/-     0.858
Long of Asc Node:      127.36776 +/-     0.024
Inclination:             2.17992 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.05538443 +/-    0.0001
Semi-Major Axis:     46.62829164 +/-    0.0034
Time of Perihelion: 2455520.3845 +/-     247.3
Perihelion:          44.04581019 +/-    0.0058
Aphelion:            49.21077309 +/-    0.0060
Period (y)              318.4069 +/-      0.03
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X           30.10624017 +/-    0.0008
Ecliptic Y           32.12019290 +/-    0.0009
Ecliptic Z           -1.65286062 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00193352 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT         0.00182999 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT         0.00001622 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   44.05478904 +/-    0.0008
Geocenter to KBO     43.07626001 +/-    0.0012
# Hcoef:  8.10

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15VG169. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15VG169) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2014 11  17.39535  02 59 24.993  +14 42 39.16  25.0r 15VG169   568  C~2nw1      
2014 11  19.30032  02 59 16.240  +14 42 03.01  24.6r 15VG169   568  C~2nw1      
2014 11  23.40372  02 58 57.574  +14 40 46.76  24.3r 15VG169   568  C~2nw1      
2015 08  12.57765  03 09 00.932  +15 25 59.69  24.9w 15VG169   568  C~2nw1      
2015 09  07.53691  03 08 51.864  +15 24 06.99  24.6w 15VG169   568  C~2nw1      
2015 09  12.53366  03 08 43.413  +15 23 19.40  24.8w 15VG169   568  C~2nw1      
2015 10  07.47747  03 07 32.965  +15 17 36.94  24.7w 15VG169   568  C~2nw1      
2015 10  08.48165  03 07 29.266  +15 17 20.03  24.7w 15VG169   568  C~2nw1      
2015 10  08.55151  03 07 29.002  +15 17 19.00  24.7w 15VG169   568  C~2nw1      
2015 10  08.56473  03 07 28.952  +15 17 18.67  24.6w 15VG169   568  C~2nw1      
2015 11  06.29678  03 05 25.662  +15 08 24.51  24.5r 15VG169   568  C~2nw1      
2015 11  06.36009  03 05 25.355  +15 08 23.23  24.4r 15VG169   568  C~2nw1      
2015 11  06.43072  03 05 25.003  +15 08 22.11  24.8r 15VG169   568  C~2nw1      
2015 11  06.50005  03 05 24.695  +15 08 20.53  24.1r 15VG169   568  C~2nw1      
2015 11  07.51946  03 05 19.940  +15 08 00.82  24.6w 15VG169   568  C~2nw1      
2015 11  17.28542  03 04 34.312  +15 04 53.62  24.6w 15VG169   568  C~2nw1      
2015 11  17.33469  03 04 34.084  +15 04 52.67  24.6w 15VG169   568  C~2nw1      
2015 12  06.41351  03 03 09.309  +14 59 19.27  24.9w 15VG169   568  C~2nw1      
2015 12  13.34802  03 02 41.785  +14 57 35.91  24.7w 15VG169   568  C~2nw1      
2015 12  13.40657  03 02 41.556  +14 57 35.10  24.7w 15VG169   568  C~2nw1      
2016 01  01.40134  03 01 40.841  +14 54 03.99  24.7w 15VG169   568  C~2nw1      
2016 01  07.34755  03 01 27.221  +14 53 22.97  25.1w 15VG169   568  C~2nw1      
2016 02  04.27768  03 01 04.712  +14 53 15.67  24.8w 15VG169   568  C~2nw1      
2016 02  10.26747  03 01 09.294  +14 53 54.45  25.0w 15VG169   568  C~2nw1      
2016 09  06.61716  03 13 57.337  +15 45 09.79        15VG169   568  C~2nw1      
2016 09  26.60468  03 13 13.791  +15 41 27.73  23.3w 15VG169   568  C~2nw1      
2016 10  10.41386  03 12 27.039  +15 37 55.81  25.0w 15VG169   568  C~2nw1      
2016 10  10.47261  03 12 26.806  +15 37 54.86  24.8w 15VG169   568  C~2nw1      
2016 10  27.50838  03 11 15.610  +15 32 50.65  24.6w 15VG169   568  C~2nw1      
2016 11  03.53341  03 10 43.491  +15 30 38.14  24.8w 15VG169   568  C~2nw1      
2016 12  28.40571  03 06 54.780  +15 16 15.11  25.1w 15VG169   568  C~2nw1      
2016 12  29.36323  03 06 52.055  +15 16 06.47  25.1w 15VG169   568  C~2nw1      
2017 01  26.26424  03 06 05.975  +15 14 19.26  24.7w 15VG169   568  C~2nw1      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

     1   0.0000      0.00    -0.03       0.00    -0.07
     2   0.0052   -132.03     0.01       1.17    -0.05
     3   0.0165   -413.38     0.06       4.54     0.05
     4   0.7342   8740.95     0.24     188.12     0.16
     5   0.8053   8583.85    -0.09     115.24    -0.09
     6   0.8190   8453.08    -0.02     102.67     0.04
     7   0.8873   7377.66     0.09      51.06     0.02
     8   0.8900   7321.48    -0.05      49.43    -0.05
     9   0.8902   7317.52    -0.00      49.48     0.09
    10   0.8903   7316.74    -0.03      49.36    -0.02
    11   0.9689   5452.33     0.04      25.70    -0.04
    12   0.9691   5447.70    -0.09      25.70    -0.07
    13   0.9693   5442.49    -0.26      26.03     0.24
    14   0.9695   5437.76    -0.04      25.74    -0.07
    15   0.9723   5366.10    -0.01      25.78    -0.01
    16   0.9990   4678.92     0.01      28.38    -0.05
    17   0.9991   4675.48     0.06      28.38    -0.10
    18   1.0514   3402.61    -0.08      48.76     0.07
    19   1.0704   2990.66     0.12      60.54    -0.04
    20   1.0705   2987.25     0.09      60.68    -0.01
    21   1.1225   2083.19    -0.01     103.69     0.01
    22   1.1388   1882.14    -0.04     119.57    -0.13
    23   1.2153   1566.85     0.05     203.99     0.14
    24   1.2317   1641.48    -0.05     222.60     0.05
    25   1.8049  13187.61     0.06     144.09     0.04
    26   1.8596  12519.82    -0.12      97.57    -0.06
    27   1.8974  11810.04     0.06      73.91    -0.05
    28   1.8975  11806.53    -0.01      73.89    -0.01
    29   1.9442  10730.77     0.04      57.08    -0.01
    30   1.9634  10246.78    -0.04      54.58     0.01
    31   2.1136   6823.18    -0.00     123.63    -0.06
    32   2.1163   6782.85    -0.06     126.13     0.04
    33   2.1927   6111.54     0.13     206.14     0.03

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15VG169    quality flag:3

Type:      CLASSICAL CLASSICAL CLASSICAL

axisobj        47.016    47.027    47.004
ecceobj         0.063     0.064     0.063
incobj          2.180     2.180     2.180
qmin           43.186    43.133    43.186
qmax           50.320    50.340    50.294
amean          46.634    46.644    46.624
amin           46.257    46.268    46.259
amax           47.027    47.038    47.034
emean           0.058     0.058     0.058
emin            0.045     0.046     0.045
emax            0.070     0.070     0.070
imean           1.171     1.171     1.172
imin            0.815     0.815     0.815
imax            1.478     1.479     1.479
excite_mean     0.062     0.062     0.062
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          3.130     3.130     3.130

libcent 0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       183.9     183.6     183.6
kozaiamp        180.0     180.0     180.0