Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15VG172

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15VG172   
# Created Tue Apr  1 01:10:42 2025
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting     26 observations of     26
# Arc:   2.35y
# First observation: 2015/08/11
#  Last observation: 2017/12/16
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  -0.000112   0.019803  -0.000008   0.000464   0.021923   0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit:     8.55 DOF:     46 RMS:  0.10
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.29    0.18
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.420336E-05  1.946210E-02  2.362995E-07  4.542748E-04  2.165446E-02  1.850668E-03
# Covariance matrix:
  3.1257E-13  4.3009E-14  1.1434E-14 -1.2973E-15  2.9157E-13  9.6187E-12
  4.3009E-14  5.8570E-13  1.3416E-14 -4.0387E-15  4.3256E-13  2.9644E-11
  1.1434E-14  1.3416E-14  1.2525E-13 -1.0969E-13  2.0523E-14  8.9640E-13
 -1.2973E-15 -4.0387E-15 -1.0969E-13  1.7179E-13 -4.0285E-15 -2.9112E-13
  2.9157E-13  4.3256E-13  2.0523E-14 -4.0285E-15  5.8444E-13  2.9666E-11
  9.6187E-12  2.9644E-11  8.9640E-13 -2.9112E-13  2.9666E-11  2.1359E-09
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
   -3.184042   51.747545    1.014308    0.003269    0.056512  2457246.102289
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2457240.5000  =  2015/08/06
Mean Anomaly:          120.96932 +/-     1.008
Argument of Peri:      162.59100 +/-     0.980
Long of Asc Node:      118.91216 +/-     0.019
Inclination:             3.42695 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.08582171 +/-    0.0017
Semi-Major Axis:     43.96677438 +/-    0.0155
Time of Perihelion: 2421459.0380 +/-     297.5
Perihelion:          40.19347058 +/-    0.0759
Aphelion:            47.74007818 +/-    0.0764
Period (y)              291.5380 +/-      0.15
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X           29.30453314 +/-    0.0010
Ecliptic Y           35.53612678 +/-    0.0013
Ecliptic Z           -2.56494636 +/-    0.0001
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00178777 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT         0.00170308 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT         0.00004441 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   46.13188614 +/-    0.0012
Geocenter to KBO     46.17986205 +/-    0.0016
# Hcoef:  8.53

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15VG172. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15VG172) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2015 08  11.60150  03 20 43.611  +15 07 30.54  25.3w 15VG172   568  C~2nwC      
2015 10  07.42821  03 19 29.745  +14 59 21.97  25.0w 15VG172   568  C~2nwC      
2015 10  08.44001  03 19 26.285  +14 59 05.83  25.3w 15VG172   568  C~2nwC      
2015 10  08.49908  03 19 26.073  +14 59 05.00  25.6w 15VG172   568  C~2nwC      
2015 11  07.34843  03 17 24.082  +14 50 32.26  25.1r 15VG172   568  C~2nwC      
2015 11  07.39058  03 17 23.889  +14 50 31.63  25.4r 15VG172   568  C~2nwC      
2015 11  07.43274  03 17 23.686  +14 50 30.85  24.9r 15VG172   568  C~2nwC      
2015 11  10.51713  03 17 09.748  +14 49 36.03  25.1w 15VG172   568  C~2nwC      
2015 11  10.54648  03 17 09.618  +14 49 35.74  24.9w 15VG172   568  C~2nwC      
2015 11  17.36382  03 16 38.668  +14 47 37.05  25.3w 15VG172   568  C~2nwC      
2015 11  17.41043  03 16 38.450  +14 47 36.21  25.5w 15VG172   568  C~2nwC      
2015 12  06.37266  03 15 15.325  +14 42 36.18  25.3w 15VG172   568  C~2nwC      
2015 12  13.30706  03 14 47.626  +14 41 03.12  25.5w 15VG172   568  C~2nwC      
2015 12  13.36559  03 14 47.397  +14 41 02.67  25.3w 15VG172   568  C~2nwC      
2016 01  01.36029  03 13 44.603  +14 37 55.22  25.5w 15VG172   568  C~2nwC      
2016 01  07.30705  03 13 29.850  +14 37 20.04  25.3w 15VG172   568  C~2nwC      
2016 02  11.22942  03 13 02.541  +14 38 09.32  25.8w 15VG172   568  C~2nwC      
2016 09  07.56785  03 25 08.365  +15 23 56.95        15VG172   568  C~2nwC      
2016 09  25.60501  03 24 33.459  +15 20 44.11  26.1w 15VG172   568  C~2nwC      
2016 10  10.53987  03 23 47.102  +15 17 10.31  25.5w 15VG172   568  C~2nwC      
2016 10  10.58850  03 23 46.914  +15 17 09.50  25.4w 15VG172   568  C~2nwC      
2016 11  02.50837  03 22 13.955  +15 10 45.60  25.2w 15VG172   568  C~2nwC      
2016 11  04.48449  03 22 05.182  +15 10 11.40  25.8w 15VG172   568  C~2nwC      
2016 12  25.28594  03 18 32.720  +14 57 56.61  25.1w 15VG172   568  C~2nwC      
2016 12  28.43907  03 18 22.938  +14 57 29.66  25.2w 15VG172   568  C~2nwC      
2017 12  16.34460  03 23 34.902  +15 18 18.96  25.1w 15VG172   568  C~2nwC      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

     1   0.0000      0.00     0.00       0.00     0.02
     2   0.1556  -1159.34     0.14    -198.64     0.05
     3   0.1584  -1211.94     0.05    -201.38    -0.29
     4   0.1585  -1215.12     0.02    -201.39    -0.19
     5   0.2402  -3055.96    -0.03    -241.28    -0.01
     6   0.2404  -3058.83    -0.01    -241.17     0.10
     7   0.2405  -3061.88    -0.15    -241.16     0.11
     8   0.2489  -3271.33    -0.09    -241.79    -0.17
     9   0.2490  -3273.23     0.04    -241.58     0.03
    10   0.2677  -3737.61     0.00    -239.85    -0.01
    11   0.2678  -3740.88    -0.05    -239.84    -0.05
    12   0.3197  -4983.75     0.03    -215.66     0.12
    13   0.3387  -5396.26     0.06    -200.48    -0.11
    14   0.3388  -5399.58     0.14    -200.04     0.16
    15   0.3909  -6328.86     0.01    -142.08    -0.00
    16   0.4071  -6544.92    -0.03    -119.74     0.12
    17   0.5027  -6914.72    -0.08      32.19     0.02
    18   1.0759   3956.65    -0.01     -13.63    -0.02
    19   1.1253   3419.41    -0.08     -73.85    -0.09
    20   1.1662   2716.38     0.07    -112.26     0.02
    21   1.1663   2713.55    -0.11    -112.35     0.02
    22   1.2290   1314.67    -0.10    -143.97     0.04
    23   1.2345   1183.14     0.18    -144.85     0.11
    24   1.3735  -1979.89    -0.16     -68.78     0.12
    25   1.3822  -2123.81     0.14     -58.31     0.12
    26   2.3484   2562.82     0.04      -1.36    -0.20

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15VG172    quality flag:3

Type:      CLASSICAL CLASSICAL CLASSICAL

axisobj        44.385    44.439    44.335
ecceobj         0.085     0.090     0.080
incobj          3.429     3.429     3.429
qmin           39.673    39.491    39.822
qmax           48.746    49.001    48.465
amean          44.068    44.119    44.019
amin           43.713    43.757    43.665
amax           44.448    44.497    44.385
emean           0.080     0.085     0.076
emin            0.063     0.069     0.059
emax            0.097     0.102     0.092
imean           2.173     2.177     2.172
imin            1.450     1.446     1.451
imax            2.849     2.863     2.845
excite_mean     0.089     0.094     0.085
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          3.093     3.092     3.093

libcent 0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       177.5     177.5     177.8
kozaiamp        180.0     180.0     179.9