The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15VJ165 # Created Sun Dec 22 02:10:33 2024 # Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism # Fitting 43 observations of 43 # Arc: 3.07y # First observation: 2014/11/17 # Last observation: 2017/12/13 Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: -0.000032 0.032138 -0.000007 0.003135 0.028931 0.000000 # Chi-squared of fit: 4.32 DOF: 80 RMS: 0.06 # Min/Max residuals: -0.14 0.16 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 1.787290E-05 3.237160E-02 9.475370E-07 3.158368E-03 2.923843E-02 1.081004E-03 # Covariance matrix: 2.4933E-13 -2.8385E-13 1.1833E-14 -2.1640E-14 -1.0821E-13 -2.1664E-12 -2.8385E-13 4.5064E-13 -2.1845E-14 4.0358E-14 1.7200E-13 4.0362E-12 1.1833E-14 -2.1845E-14 1.3017E-13 -6.7451E-14 -9.6201E-15 -2.1724E-13 -2.1640E-14 4.0358E-14 -6.7451E-14 4.9191E-14 1.6412E-14 4.0216E-13 -1.0821E-13 1.7200E-13 -9.6201E-15 1.6412E-14 1.6820E-13 1.6546E-12 -2.1664E-12 4.0362E-12 -2.1724E-13 4.0216E-13 1.6546E-12 4.0213E-11 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 -2.478819 48.675573 -0.100440 -0.042424 -0.983446 2456978.818008 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2456970.5000 = 2014/11/09 Mean Anomaly: 16.10905 +/- 0.081 Argument of Peri: 316.43546 +/- 0.103 Long of Asc Node: 72.14777 +/- 0.001 Inclination: 6.07164 +/- 0.000 Eccentricity: 0.10931325 +/- 0.0001 Semi-Major Axis: 39.26425778 +/- 0.0022 Time of Perihelion: 2452949.2423 +/- 20.3 Perihelion: 34.97215433 +/- 0.0041 Aphelion: 43.55636122 +/- 0.0044 Period (y) 246.0392 +/- 0.02 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X 23.13435839 +/- 0.0003 Ecliptic Y 26.46779404 +/- 0.0004 Ecliptic Z -1.47920454 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic XDOT -0.00220546 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic YDOT 0.00208218 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic ZDOT 0.00029119 +/- 0.0000 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 35.18423945 +/- 0.0003 Geocenter to KBO 34.20155971 +/- 0.0005 # Hcoef: 8.30
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15VJ165. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15VJ165) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2014 11 17.31723 03 07 41.809 +14 59 48.05 23.6r 15VJ165 568 C~2lVa 2014 11 17.42609 03 07 41.180 +14 59 45.67 23.6r 15VJ165 568 C~2lVa 2014 11 17.54029 03 07 40.517 +14 59 43.16 23.6r 15VJ165 568 C~2lVa 2014 11 19.33914 03 07 30.211 +14 59 05.49 23.7r 15VJ165 568 C~2lVa 2014 11 23.44182 03 07 06.887 +14 57 41.06 23.8r 15VJ165 568 C~2lVa 2015 08 11.56405 03 20 00.902 +16 01 03.31 23.8w 15VJ165 568 C~2lVa 2015 09 06.61072 03 20 03.355 +16 00 15.58 23.9w 15VJ165 568 C~2lVa 2015 09 12.50083 03 19 53.487 +15 59 26.46 23.7w 15VJ165 568 C~2lVa 2015 10 07.42237 03 18 33.573 +15 53 46.91 24.0w 15VJ165 568 C~2lVa 2015 10 08.43421 03 18 29.185 +15 53 29.34 24.2w 15VJ165 568 C~2lVa 2015 10 08.49327 03 18 28.923 +15 53 28.28 24.0w 15VJ165 568 C~2lVa 2015 11 07.34317 03 15 53.075 +15 43 34.24 23.8r 15VJ165 568 C~2lVa 2015 11 07.38533 03 15 52.830 +15 43 33.45 23.8r 15VJ165 568 C~2lVa 2015 11 07.42748 03 15 52.580 +15 43 32.52 23.6r 15VJ165 568 C~2lVa 2015 11 10.51130 03 15 34.719 +15 42 27.57 23.7w 15VJ165 568 C~2lVa 2015 11 17.35801 03 14 54.936 +15 40 04.91 23.8w 15VJ165 568 C~2lVa 2015 11 17.40462 03 14 54.656 +15 40 03.98 23.8w 15VJ165 568 C~2lVa 2015 12 06.36680 03 13 08.696 +15 34 01.12 24.0w 15VJ165 568 C~2lVa 2015 12 06.51621 03 13 07.894 +15 33 58.54 24.3w 15VJ165 568 C~2lVa 2015 12 13.30120 03 12 33.628 +15 32 08.48 24.0w 15VJ165 568 C~2lVa 2015 12 13.35972 03 12 33.347 +15 32 07.55 24.1w 15VJ165 568 C~2lVa 2016 01 07.30127 03 10 57.071 +15 27 41.70 24.0w 15VJ165 568 C~2lVa 2016 02 04.33458 03 10 24.395 +15 28 10.01 24.2w 15VJ165 568 C~2lVa 2016 02 11.22361 03 10 30.349 +15 29 14.44 24.1w 15VJ165 568 C~2lVa 2016 09 07.57941 03 27 08.096 +16 37 55.88 24.1w 15VJ165 568 C~2lVa 2016 09 27.51883 03 26 20.064 +16 34 32.35 24.0w 15VJ165 568 C~2lVa 2016 09 29.49059 03 26 13.185 +16 34 05.16 23.9w 15VJ165 568 C~2lVa 2016 10 05.49370 03 25 50.130 +16 32 35.59 23.9w 15VJ165 568 C~2lVa 2016 10 07.49825 03 25 41.761 +16 32 03.61 23.9w 15VJ165 568 C~2lVa 2016 10 07.59395 03 25 41.338 +16 32 02.24 23.9w 15VJ165 568 C~2lVa 2016 10 09.49835 03 25 33.098 +16 31 30.81 24.1w 15VJ165 568 C~2lVa 2016 10 09.57103 03 25 32.766 +16 31 29.56 24.0w 15VJ165 568 C~2lVa 2016 11 02.48525 03 23 30.027 +16 24 01.41 23.9w 15VJ165 568 C~2lVa 2016 12 24.33186 03 18 50.675 +16 08 51.65 24.1w 15VJ165 568 C~2lVa 2016 12 28.44224 03 18 34.384 +16 08 07.82 24.1w 15VJ165 568 C~2lVa 2017 01 02.43457 03 18 16.664 +16 07 23.27 24.0w 15VJ165 568 C~2lVa 2017 01 26.34976 03 17 27.439 +16 06 18.17 23.9w 15VJ165 568 C~2lVa 2017 09 16.62789 03 34 01.681 +17 13 42.40 24.0w 15VJ165 568 C~2lVa 2017 09 23.56691 03 33 44.392 +17 12 34.50 15VJ165 568 C~2lVa 2017 12 13.38599 03 26 54.145 +16 49 40.72 24.1w 15VJ165 568 C~2lVa 2017 12 13.39528 03 26 54.087 +16 49 40.52 23.9w 15VJ165 568 C~2lVa 2017 12 13.42326 03 26 53.942 +16 49 40.12 24.1w 15VJ165 568 C~2lVa 2017 12 13.43255 03 26 53.892 +16 49 39.98 24.1w 15VJ165 568 C~2lVa
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 -0.08 0.00 0.16
2 0.0003 -9.42 0.01 0.19 0.04
3 0.0006 -19.34 0.05 0.38 -0.05
4 0.0055 -173.29 -0.01 4.76 0.06
5 0.0168 -521.49 0.00 15.57 0.02
6 0.7317 11285.93 0.07 712.74 -0.03
7 0.8030 11307.84 -0.04 657.42 0.00
8 0.8191 11157.25 -0.07 646.66 -0.03
9 0.8874 9952.88 -0.07 617.07 0.00
10 0.8901 9887.03 -0.03 616.54 -0.00
11 0.8903 9883.10 -0.01 616.50 -0.04
12 0.9720 7552.53 0.09 630.76 -0.14
13 0.9721 7548.91 0.14 630.93 -0.06
14 0.9722 7545.18 0.09 630.98 -0.10
15 0.9807 7278.93 0.03 636.13 -0.06
16 0.9994 6686.45 0.00 649.88 -0.01
17 0.9996 6682.30 -0.06 650.05 0.04
18 1.0515 5108.84 0.03 705.59 0.04
19 1.0519 5096.98 -0.04 706.18 0.08
20 1.0705 4590.09 -0.10 731.91 0.08
21 1.0706 4585.93 0.01 732.09 0.00
22 1.1389 3173.38 0.04 848.07 -0.01
23 1.2157 2725.86 -0.06 1002.25 -0.07
24 1.2345 2826.11 -0.01 1041.17 0.02
25 1.8077 17828.81 -0.02 1294.34 0.01
26 1.8623 17104.23 -0.04 1269.66 -0.01
27 1.8677 17000.97 -0.05 1268.09 -0.01
28 1.8841 16655.32 0.04 1264.46 -0.11
29 1.8896 16529.99 0.05 1263.71 -0.10
30 1.8899 16523.72 0.02 1263.91 0.11
31 1.8951 16400.35 0.06 1263.25 -0.01
32 1.8953 16395.38 -0.01 1263.24 -0.03
33 1.9608 14563.53 -0.04 1275.43 0.06
34 2.1027 10427.07 0.04 1427.88 0.05
35 2.1140 10188.41 -0.04 1446.44 0.08
36 2.1276 9929.65 -0.01 1469.74 -0.02
37 2.1931 9226.30 0.03 1591.66 -0.08
38 2.8318 24174.94 -0.02 1924.88 0.01
39 2.8508 23914.66 0.00 1918.56 0.04
40 3.0721 17810.84 0.12 2029.66 0.02
41 3.0721 17809.97 -0.03 2029.68 -0.00
42 3.0722 17807.84 -0.03 2029.81 0.02
43 3.0722 17807.11 -0.06 2029.85 0.03
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15VJ165 quality flag:3 Type: 3:2E 3:2E 3:2E axisobj 39.580 39.588 39.572 ecceobj 0.117 0.117 0.117 incobj 6.066 6.066 6.066 qmin 34.218 34.274 34.218 qmax 45.270 45.344 45.481 amean 39.460 39.460 39.460 amin 38.963 38.970 38.947 amax 39.986 39.985 40.011 emean 0.113 0.112 0.112 emin 0.091 0.090 0.091 emax 0.133 0.134 0.137 imean 3.632 3.842 3.415 imin 1.578 1.945 1.053 imax 5.312 5.417 5.856 excite_mean 0.131 0.132 0.129 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 3.032 3.032 3.032 libcent 0 180.4 179.8 180.2 libamp 0 117.8 116.0 122.5 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 179.1 186.1 181.5 kozaiamp 179.9 180.0 180.0