The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15VJ173 # Created Fri Nov 22 02:10:37 2024 # Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism # Fitting 44 observations of 44 # Arc: 3.08y # First observation: 2014/11/17 # Last observation: 2017/12/16 Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: -0.000095 0.018034 -0.000043 0.007460 0.022025 0.000000 # Chi-squared of fit: 11.55 DOF: 82 RMS: 0.09 # Min/Max residuals: -0.23 0.24 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 1.206580E-05 1.798105E-02 6.462849E-06 7.442752E-03 2.205516E-02 -2.742917E-03 # Covariance matrix: 2.2307E-13 -2.2734E-13 3.2286E-14 -6.3346E-14 -1.2040E-13 -2.8737E-12 -2.2734E-13 3.3399E-13 -5.9279E-14 1.1657E-13 2.0726E-13 5.2874E-12 3.2286E-14 -5.9279E-14 1.4972E-13 -9.6254E-14 -4.1820E-14 -1.1063E-12 -6.3346E-14 1.1657E-13 -9.6254E-14 9.7801E-14 8.0792E-14 2.1793E-12 -1.2040E-13 2.0726E-13 -4.1820E-14 8.0792E-14 2.2239E-13 3.6696E-12 -2.8737E-12 5.2874E-12 -1.1063E-12 2.1793E-12 3.6696E-12 9.8836E-11 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 -2.776614 47.809778 -0.114504 -0.047465 -0.981681 2456978.772168 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2456970.5000 = 2014/11/09 Mean Anomaly: 251.97921 +/- 0.110 Argument of Peri: 116.63919 +/- 0.096 Long of Asc Node: 54.48855 +/- 0.000 Inclination: 22.64451 +/- 0.001 Eccentricity: 0.15480168 +/- 0.0004 Semi-Major Axis: 43.38139197 +/- 0.0062 Time of Perihelion: 2488285.9395 +/- 31.1 Perihelion: 36.66587957 +/- 0.0179 Aphelion: 50.09690436 +/- 0.0185 Period (y) 285.7350 +/- 0.06 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X 30.98708372 +/- 0.0006 Ecliptic Y 34.36103792 +/- 0.0007 Ecliptic Z -2.19612639 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic XDOT -0.00185643 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic YDOT 0.00127528 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic ZDOT 0.00093943 +/- 0.0000 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 46.32173632 +/- 0.0007 Geocenter to KBO 45.34086701 +/- 0.0010 # Hcoef: 8.15
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15VJ173. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15VJ173) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2014 11 17.27139 03 04 35.629 +14 28 24.13 24.2r 15VJ173 568 C~2nwH 2014 11 17.38009 03 04 35.110 +14 28 22.68 24.5r 15VJ173 568 C~2nwH 2014 11 17.49387 03 04 34.571 +14 28 21.36 24.8r 15VJ173 568 C~2nwH 2014 11 19.28114 03 04 26.358 +14 27 55.64 25.1r 15VJ173 568 C~2nwH 2014 11 23.38468 03 04 07.662 +14 26 59.01 23.7r 15VJ173 568 C~2nwH 2015 08 11.61007 03 12 42.667 +15 24 18.41 24.6w 15VJ173 568 C~2nwH 2015 09 06.62757 03 12 32.916 +15 24 08.30 24.8w 15VJ173 568 C~2nwH 2015 09 12.51723 03 12 22.868 +15 23 36.20 25.0w 15VJ173 568 C~2nwH 2015 10 07.45292 03 11 12.185 +15 19 41.05 24.7w 15VJ173 568 C~2nwH 2015 10 08.45753 03 11 08.495 +15 19 28.74 24.9w 15VJ173 568 C~2nwH 2015 10 08.51654 03 11 08.285 +15 19 27.89 24.9w 15VJ173 568 C~2nwH 2015 11 07.36426 03 09 00.410 +15 12 30.15 24.8r 15VJ173 568 C~2nwH 2015 11 07.40638 03 09 00.213 +15 12 29.55 24.9r 15VJ173 568 C~2nwH 2015 11 07.44859 03 09 00.011 +15 12 28.98 24.6r 15VJ173 568 C~2nwH 2015 11 10.53471 03 08 45.599 +15 11 43.57 24.0w 15VJ173 568 C~2nwH 2015 11 17.38127 03 08 13.638 +15 10 04.65 25.0w 15VJ173 568 C~2nwH 2015 11 17.42797 03 08 13.420 +15 10 04.05 25.0w 15VJ173 568 C~2nwH 2015 12 13.32462 03 06 20.636 +15 04 44.11 25.0w 15VJ173 568 C~2nwH 2015 12 13.38310 03 06 20.411 +15 04 43.68 24.9w 15VJ173 568 C~2nwH 2016 01 07.32440 03 05 02.737 +15 02 09.55 24.9w 15VJ173 568 C~2nwH 2016 02 04.30735 03 04 33.314 +15 03 33.05 25.7w 15VJ173 568 C~2nwH 2016 02 04.32803 03 04 33.320 +15 03 33.25 25.3w 15VJ173 568 C~2nwH 2016 02 05.26985 03 04 33.549 +15 03 40.93 25.2w 15VJ173 568 C~2nwH 2016 02 10.29068 03 04 36.015 +15 04 28.85 25.4w 15VJ173 568 C~2nwH 2016 09 06.61716 03 16 10.487 +16 04 56.54 25.1w 15VJ173 568 C~2nwH 2016 09 26.60468 03 15 25.606 +16 02 43.28 26.5w 15VJ173 568 C~2nwH 2016 10 10.41386 03 14 38.475 +16 00 15.14 25.1w 15VJ173 568 C~2nwH 2016 10 10.47261 03 14 38.248 +16 00 14.52 25.0w 15VJ173 568 C~2nwH 2016 10 27.50838 03 13 26.928 +15 56 29.70 24.9w 15VJ173 568 C~2nwH 2016 10 27.51417 03 13 26.906 +15 56 29.58 24.8w 15VJ173 568 C~2nwH 2016 11 03.53920 03 12 54.768 +15 54 49.54 24.8w 15VJ173 568 C~2nwH 2016 12 28.40571 03 09 03.412 +15 44 13.13 25.3w 15VJ173 568 C~2nwH 2016 12 29.36323 03 09 00.579 +15 44 07.73 25.3w 15VJ173 568 C~2nwH 2016 12 29.36878 03 09 00.561 +15 44 07.75 25.2w 15VJ173 568 C~2nwH 2017 01 01.26044 03 08 52.387 +15 43 53.36 25.2w 15VJ173 568 C~2nwH 2017 01 01.26608 03 08 52.353 +15 43 53.30 25.2w 15VJ173 568 C~2nwH 2017 01 02.37026 03 08 49.396 +15 43 48.37 25.2w 15VJ173 568 C~2nwH 2017 01 02.37586 03 08 49.388 +15 43 48.42 24.9w 15VJ173 568 C~2nwH 2017 01 26.26424 03 08 09.444 +15 43 46.72 25.1w 15VJ173 568 C~2nwH 2017 01 26.27054 03 08 09.441 +15 43 46.88 25.2w 15VJ173 568 C~2nwH 2017 09 15.60092 03 19 36.253 +16 45 08.84 24.9w 15VJ173 568 C~2nwH 2017 09 22.58685 03 19 19.671 +16 44 23.89 24.9w 15VJ173 568 C~2nwH 2017 12 16.38250 03 13 25.625 +16 27 21.15 24.8w 15VJ173 568 C~2nwH 2017 12 16.38715 03 13 25.608 +16 27 21.12 24.7w 15VJ173 568 C~2nwH
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 0.17 0.00 -0.23
2 0.0003 -7.65 0.05 0.69 -0.10
3 0.0006 -15.53 0.05 1.58 0.22
4 0.0055 -137.29 -0.16 9.78 -0.05
5 0.0167 -413.92 -0.01 30.36 0.08
6 0.7319 7707.85 -0.05 1312.06 -0.05
7 0.8032 7569.07 0.02 1340.00 0.08
8 0.8193 7420.27 -0.19 1347.91 -0.03
9 0.8876 6371.10 0.12 1395.40 0.05
10 0.8903 6316.32 -0.05 1397.88 0.07
11 0.8905 6313.16 0.09 1397.88 -0.10
12 0.9722 4417.32 0.04 1495.14 -0.04
13 0.9723 4414.42 0.08 1495.33 -0.04
14 0.9724 4411.44 0.06 1495.58 0.02
15 0.9809 4198.24 -0.09 1508.45 -0.00
16 0.9996 3725.90 -0.06 1538.94 0.02
17 0.9997 3722.70 -0.00 1539.23 0.07
18 1.0706 2063.85 -0.09 1677.26 -0.06
19 1.0708 2060.59 0.04 1677.74 0.05
20 1.1391 936.34 -0.10 1838.61 -0.03
21 1.2157 549.64 -0.05 2036.39 0.11
22 1.2158 549.78 0.01 2036.56 0.13
23 1.2183 555.09 0.12 2043.02 -0.14
24 1.2321 602.64 -0.11 2079.23 0.24
25 1.8052 11255.32 0.04 2870.20 -0.01
26 1.8599 10594.24 -0.05 2911.94 -0.12
27 1.8977 9897.99 0.06 2948.51 -0.11
28 1.8979 9894.66 0.10 2948.78 -0.03
29 1.9445 8841.12 0.03 3004.79 -0.04
30 1.9445 8840.78 0.08 3004.76 -0.10
31 1.9638 8366.45 -0.08 3031.74 -0.04
32 2.1140 4975.54 -0.06 3315.90 -0.07
33 2.1166 4934.68 0.03 3321.78 -0.11
34 2.1166 4934.44 0.03 3321.87 -0.05
35 2.1245 4816.86 0.11 3340.01 0.08
36 2.1246 4816.37 -0.15 3340.09 0.12
37 2.1276 4773.92 0.01 3346.92 -0.01
38 2.1276 4773.82 0.13 3347.00 0.04
39 2.1930 4218.01 -0.09 3502.00 0.00
40 2.1930 4218.01 -0.03 3502.17 0.13
41 2.8291 14758.33 0.01 4431.71 0.09
42 2.8482 14515.37 -0.17 4449.87 -0.11
43 3.0804 9317.40 0.06 4797.08 0.03
44 3.0804 9317.16 0.08 4797.11 0.04
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15VJ173 quality flag:3 Type: SCATEXTD SCATEXTD SCATEXTD axisobj 43.625 43.641 43.609 ecceobj 0.148 0.149 0.147 incobj 22.574 22.575 22.574 qmin 35.971 35.947 35.985 qmax 51.079 51.147 50.993 amean 43.373 43.387 43.345 amin 43.021 43.040 42.972 amax 43.777 43.797 43.743 emean 0.151 0.152 0.151 emin 0.135 0.136 0.136 emax 0.168 0.169 0.166 imean 21.512 21.511 21.489 imin 20.950 20.949 20.954 imax 22.029 22.027 21.992 excite_mean 0.397 0.397 0.396 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 2.902 2.902 2.902 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 183.1 183.8 185.7 kozaiamp 180.0 179.9 180.0