The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15VJ181 # Created Fri Nov 22 02:10:37 2024 # Orbit generated by ELGB # -->Covariance matrix from a Bernstein fit # Fitting 49 observations of 49 # Arc: 9.77y # First observation: 2014/12/31 # Last observation: 2024/10/08 # Chi-squared of fit: 14.36 DOF: 92 RMS: 0.10 # Min/Max residuals: -0.24 0.28 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 1.737781E-05 3.141188E-02 3.724926E-06 8.116445E-03 2.842528E-02 -2.733061E-03 # Covariance matrix: 1.7272E-13 -6.7063E-14 -2.8799E-15 -1.2432E-14 -6.6104E-14 -1.7655E-13 -6.7063E-14 4.7290E-14 -1.5648E-14 7.7825E-15 -1.0478E-14 1.2290E-13 -2.8799E-15 -1.5648E-14 9.0754E-14 -1.4256E-14 5.4665E-14 -2.9544E-14 -1.2432E-14 7.7825E-15 -1.4256E-14 5.7004E-15 4.3104E-15 2.3963E-14 -6.6104E-14 -1.0478E-14 5.4665E-14 4.3104E-15 1.8240E-13 2.3124E-14 -1.7655E-13 1.2290E-13 -2.9544E-14 2.3963E-14 2.3124E-14 3.6521E-13 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 -34.541046 14.501941 -0.977517 -0.053320 -0.077817 2457022.637748 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2457022.5000 = 2014/12/31 Mean Anomaly: 344.52181 +/- 0.007 Argument of Peri: 313.71105 +/- 0.009 Long of Asc Node: 80.27081 +/- 0.000 Inclination: 37.38131 +/- 0.000 Eccentricity: 0.17841191 +/- 0.0001 Semi-Major Axis: 42.43822590 +/- 0.0035 Time of Perihelion: 2461364.1214 +/- 12.0 Perihelion: 34.86674107 +/- 0.0036 Aphelion: 50.00971072 +/- 0.0047 Period (y) 276.4675 +/- 0.03 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X 27.89878332 +/- 0.0004 Ecliptic Y 8.22803573 +/- 0.0001 Ecliptic Z -19.94686368 +/- 0.0003 Ecliptic XDOT -0.00054241 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic YDOT 0.00298058 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic ZDOT 0.00079330 +/- 0.0000 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 35.26928774 +/- 0.0004 Geocenter to KBO 35.18004455 +/- 0.0005 # Hcoef: 6.96
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15VJ181. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15VJ181) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2014 12 31.13697 01 49 55.220 -25 59 11.45 22.3z 15VJ181 W84 C~4yYf 2015 11 06.14817 02 00 06.569 -25 14 20.41 22.2i 15VJ181 W84 C~4yYf 2015 11 06.14817 02 00 06.57 -25 14 20.4 22.3i 15VJ181 W84 C~3cuO 2015 11 06.14954 02 00 06.571 -25 14 20.38 22.2r 15VJ181 W84 C~4yYf 2015 11 06.14954 02 00 06.57 -25 14 20.4 22.3r 15VJ181 W84 C~3cuO 2015 11 08.14224 01 59 54.675 -25 14 23.21 23.2g 15VJ181 W84 C~4yYf 2015 11 08.15591 01 59 54.598 -25 14 23.44 22.2i 15VJ181 W84 C~4yYf 2015 11 08.15591 01 59 54.60 -25 14 23.4 22.3i 15VJ181 W84 C~3cuO 2015 11 08.15729 01 59 54.588 -25 14 23.39 22.7r 15VJ181 W84 C~4yYf 2015 11 08.15729 01 59 54.59 -25 14 23.4 22.7r 15VJ181 W84 C~3cuO 2015 11 16.21496 01 59 07.931 -25 13 46.13 23.3g 15VJ181 W84 C~4yYf 2015 11 16.21496 01 59 07.93 -25 13 46.1 23.1g 15VJ181 W84 C~3cuO 2015 11 21.09974 01 58 41.147 -25 12 45.38 22.1z 15VJ181 W84 C~4yYf 2015 11 21.09974 01 58 41.15 -25 12 45.4 22.1z 15VJ181 W84 C~3cuO 2015 11 21.10387 01 58 41.133 -25 12 45.22 22.2i 15VJ181 W84 C~4yYf 2015 11 21.10387 01 58 41.13 -25 12 45.2 22.3i 15VJ181 W84 C~3cuO 2016 09 24.21719 02 10 28.433 -23 40 49.93 23.0g 15VJ181 W84 C~4yYf 2016 09 24.21719 02 10 28.43 -23 40 49.9 23.1g 15VJ181 W84 C~3cuO 2016 11 16.26238 02 05 20.678 -23 58 47.45 22.3z 15VJ181 W84 C~4yYf 2016 12 03.09245 02 03 54.100 -23 53 36.39 22.4i 15VJ181 W84 C~4yYf 2016 12 03.09245 02 03 54.10 -23 53 36.4 22.5i 15VJ181 W84 C~3cuO 2016 12 03.09381 02 03 54.097 -23 53 36.27 22.5r 15VJ181 W84 C~4yYf 2016 12 03.09381 02 03 54.10 -23 53 36.3 22.5r 15VJ181 W84 C~3cuO 2016 12 03.09518 02 03 54.093 -23 53 36.19 23.1g 15VJ181 W84 C~4yYf 2016 12 03.09518 02 03 54.09 -23 53 36.2 23.2g 15VJ181 W84 C~3cuO 2017 09 14.39921 02 17 21.746 -22 15 55.52 21.9z 15VJ181 W84 C~4yYf 2017 10 13.29186 02 14 56.259 -22 35 31.13 21.8z 15VJ181 W84 C~4yYf 2017 10 13.29324 02 14 56.263 -22 35 31.10 22.2i 15VJ181 W84 C~4yYf 2017 12 09.08784 02 09 38.470 -22 35 12.81 22.7r 15VJ181 W84 C~4yYf 2017 12 12.12278 02 09 26.143 -22 33 28.44 23.2g 15VJ181 W84 C~4yYf 2018 01 18.09021 02 08 13.017 -22 00 40.20 22.6i 15VJ181 W84 C~4yYf 2018 01 18.09159 02 08 13.016 -22 00 40.07 22.6r 15VJ181 W84 C~4yYf 2018 01 18.09296 02 08 13.019 -22 00 39.94 23.2g 15VJ181 W84 C~4yYf 2018 09 19.36104 02 23 04.447 -21 01 30.42 22.3r 15VJ181 W84 C~4yYf 2018 09 19.36243 02 23 04.443 -21 01 30.55 22.3i 15VJ181 W84 C~4yYf 2018 11 29.22779 02 16 29.999 -21 22 50.07 22.5r 15VJ181 W84 C~4yYf 2018 12 02.12850 02 16 15.580 -21 21 49.50 23.0g 15VJ181 W84 C~4yYf 2020 10 14.46854 02 32 48.886 -18 38 54.65 22.5w 15VJ181 F51 C~4AGp 2020 10 14.47885 02 32 48.845 -18 38 55.02 22.2w 15VJ181 F51 C~4AGp 2020 10 14.48918 02 32 48.790 -18 38 55.27 22.2w 15VJ181 F51 C~4AGp 2020 10 14.49954 02 32 48.714 -18 38 55.67 22.7w 15VJ181 F51 C~4AGp 2020 10 20.305960 02 32 15.320 -18 41 40.12 22.2G 15VJ181 G37 C~4Kzj 2020 10 20.358400 02 32 15.021 -18 41 41.35 15VJ181 G37 C~4Kzj 2021 10 14.486406 02 38 41.524 -17 17 49.79 22.3w 15VJ181 F51 C~59oC 2021 10 14.498061 02 38 41.443 -17 17 49.87 22.3w 15VJ181 F51 C~59oC 2021 10 14.509698 02 38 41.358 -17 17 50.60 22.1w 15VJ181 F51 C~59oC 2024 10 08.443275 02 56 22.491 -13 07 49.88 22.4w 15VJ181 F51 C~8HC6 2024 10 08.457225 02 56 22.428 -13 07 50.38 22.1w 15VJ181 F51 C~8HC6 2024 10 08.471190 02 56 22.377 -13 07 50.74 22.5w 15VJ181 F51 C~8HC6
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 -0.06 0.00 0.16
2 0.8488 0.00 -0.04 0.00 0.04
3 0.8488 0.00 -0.03 0.00 0.05
4 0.8488 0.00 0.10 0.00 0.05
5 0.8488 0.00 0.11 0.00 0.07
6 0.8542 0.00 -0.06 0.00 0.15
7 0.8543 0.00 0.02 0.00 -0.08
8 0.8543 0.00 0.05 0.00 -0.04
9 0.8543 0.00 0.03 0.00 -0.04
10 0.8543 0.00 -0.00 0.00 -0.03
11 0.8763 0.00 -0.18 0.00 0.08
12 0.8763 0.00 -0.16 0.00 0.05
13 0.8897 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.05
14 0.8897 0.00 -0.04 0.00 -0.03
15 0.8897 0.00 0.08 0.00 0.07
16 0.8897 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.09
17 1.7333 0.00 -0.03 0.00 0.01
18 1.7333 0.00 0.01 0.00 -0.02
19 1.8785 0.00 -0.02 0.00 -0.08
20 1.9246 0.00 -0.02 0.00 -0.11
21 1.9246 0.00 -0.02 0.00 -0.10
22 1.9246 0.00 0.08 0.00 -0.05
23 1.9246 0.00 0.03 0.00 -0.02
24 1.9246 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.01
25 1.9246 0.00 0.07 0.00 0.02
26 2.7057 0.00 0.16 0.00 -0.10
27 2.7848 0.00 -0.18 0.00 -0.08
28 2.7848 0.00 0.01 0.00 -0.01
29 2.9403 0.00 -0.09 0.00 -0.01
30 2.9486 0.00 0.21 0.00 0.06
31 3.0498 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03
32 3.0498 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.07
33 3.0498 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.11
34 3.7186 0.00 0.05 0.00 -0.06
35 3.7186 0.00 0.08 0.00 -0.12
36 3.9126 0.00 -0.03 0.00 -0.03
37 3.9206 0.00 0.11 0.00 -0.02
38 5.7887 0.00 -0.17 0.00 0.03
39 5.7888 0.00 0.10 0.00 -0.02
40 5.7888 0.00 0.17 0.00 0.04
41 5.7888 0.00 -0.08 0.00 -0.04
42 5.8047 0.00 -0.09 0.00 -0.01
43 5.8048 0.00 0.09 0.00 0.11
44 6.7881 0.00 0.28 0.00 -0.13
45 6.7881 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.15
46 6.7882 0.00 -0.24 0.00 -0.21
47 9.7722 0.00 -0.24 0.00 0.01
48 9.7723 0.00 -0.13 0.00 0.00
49 9.7723 0.00 0.17 0.00 0.13
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15VJ181 quality flag:3 Type: SCATEXTD SCATEXTD SCATEXTD axisobj 42.860 42.860 42.861 ecceobj 0.186 0.186 0.186 incobj 37.391 37.391 37.391 qmin 33.917 33.888 33.889 qmax 51.660 51.682 51.598 amean 42.567 42.568 42.567 amin 42.183 42.200 42.195 amax 42.985 42.984 42.967 emean 0.177 0.177 0.177 emin 0.152 0.153 0.152 emax 0.202 0.202 0.202 imean 35.923 35.921 35.918 imin 35.435 35.424 35.423 imax 36.339 36.324 36.331 excite_mean 0.613 0.613 0.613 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 2.604 2.604 2.604 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 175.1 175.5 175.3 kozaiamp 180.0 180.0 180.0