The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15VM164 # Created Sun Dec 22 02:10:32 2024 # Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism # Fitting 51 observations of 51 # Arc: 3.08y # First observation: 2014/11/17 # Last observation: 2017/12/16 Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 0.000144 0.042023 0.000050 0.013697 0.034808 0.000000 # Chi-squared of fit: 9.82 DOF: 96 RMS: 0.08 # Min/Max residuals: -0.27 0.22 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 1.932123E-05 4.260581E-02 6.800703E-06 1.391179E-02 3.486809E-02 2.730996E-03 # Covariance matrix: 2.3614E-13 -2.5583E-13 3.0321E-14 -5.9564E-14 -1.0664E-13 -1.4828E-12 -2.5583E-13 3.8999E-13 -5.6431E-14 1.1108E-13 1.7572E-13 2.7651E-12 3.0321E-14 -5.6431E-14 1.4295E-13 -8.8196E-14 -2.7163E-14 -4.5700E-13 -5.9564E-14 1.1108E-13 -8.8196E-14 8.2967E-14 5.2662E-14 9.0068E-13 -1.0664E-13 1.7572E-13 -2.7163E-14 5.2662E-14 1.6597E-13 1.3118E-12 -1.4828E-12 2.7651E-12 -4.5700E-13 9.0068E-13 1.3118E-12 2.2419E-11 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 -2.759820 45.752081 -0.150246 -0.046941 -0.976873 2456978.802558 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2456970.5000 = 2014/11/09 Mean Anomaly: 10.67105 +/- 0.016 Argument of Peri: 333.03443 +/- 0.028 Long of Asc Node: 54.15767 +/- 0.000 Inclination: 18.28537 +/- 0.000 Eccentricity: 0.25304058 +/- 0.0001 Semi-Major Axis: 39.29065228 +/- 0.0021 Time of Perihelion: 2454304.0276 +/- 3.9 Perihelion: 29.34852297 +/- 0.0026 Aphelion: 49.23278159 +/- 0.0034 Period (y) 246.2873 +/- 0.02 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X 20.56007648 +/- 0.0002 Ecliptic Y 21.32697170 +/- 0.0002 Ecliptic Z -1.38072044 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic XDOT -0.00221453 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic YDOT 0.00252045 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic ZDOT 0.00108087 +/- 0.0000 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 29.65573900 +/- 0.0002 Geocenter to KBO 28.67951416 +/- 0.0003 # Hcoef: 9.83
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15VM164. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15VM164) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2014 11 17.30178 02 56 26.150 +13 54 43.34 25.0r 15VM164 568 C~2lVX 2014 11 17.41069 02 56 25.414 +13 54 41.39 24.5r 15VM164 568 C~2lVX 2014 11 17.52479 02 56 24.624 +13 54 38.70 24.6r 15VM164 568 C~2lVX 2014 11 19.31948 02 56 12.654 +13 54 03.75 24.4r 15VM164 568 C~2lVX 2014 11 23.42278 02 55 45.551 +13 52 45.64 24.5r 15VM164 568 C~2lVX 2015 09 07.53691 03 11 22.929 +15 39 40.63 24.7w 15VM164 568 C~2lVX 2015 09 12.53366 03 11 11.537 +15 39 15.26 24.7w 15VM164 568 C~2lVX 2015 10 07.47747 03 09 31.856 +15 34 33.45 25.1w 15VM164 568 C~2lVX 2015 10 08.48165 03 09 26.536 +15 34 17.70 24.6w 15VM164 568 C~2lVX 2015 10 08.53987 03 09 26.211 +15 34 16.60 24.5w 15VM164 568 C~2lVX 2015 10 08.55151 03 09 26.151 +15 34 16.72 25.0w 15VM164 568 C~2lVX 2015 10 08.56473 03 09 26.087 +15 34 16.13 24.7w 15VM164 568 C~2lVX 2015 11 06.29678 03 06 26.673 +15 25 17.22 24.4r 15VM164 568 C~2lVX 2015 11 06.36009 03 06 26.234 +15 25 15.92 24.6r 15VM164 568 C~2lVX 2015 11 06.43072 03 06 25.739 +15 25 14.45 24.0r 15VM164 568 C~2lVX 2015 11 06.50005 03 06 25.271 +15 25 12.95 24.3r 15VM164 568 C~2lVX 2015 11 07.51946 03 06 18.311 +15 24 52.48 24.4w 15VM164 568 C~2lVX 2015 11 17.28542 03 05 11.531 +15 21 38.22 24.7w 15VM164 568 C~2lVX 2015 11 17.33469 03 05 11.193 +15 21 37.24 24.8w 15VM164 568 C~2lVX 2015 12 13.34802 03 02 27.347 +15 14 25.55 25.0w 15VM164 568 C~2lVX 2015 12 13.40657 03 02 27.015 +15 14 24.78 25.3w 15VM164 568 C~2lVX 2016 01 01.40134 03 00 59.734 +15 11 45.47 24.8w 15VM164 568 C~2lVX 2016 01 07.34755 03 00 40.565 +15 11 32.66 24.9w 15VM164 568 C~2lVX 2016 02 04.27768 03 00 12.526 +15 15 00.84 25.1w 15VM164 568 C~2lVX 2016 02 10.26747 03 00 20.490 +15 16 44.45 24.7w 15VM164 568 C~2lVX 2016 09 06.60560 03 20 02.192 +17 02 03.58 15VM164 568 C~2lVX 2016 09 26.59656 03 19 03.899 +17 00 15.09 24.8w 15VM164 568 C~2lVX 2016 10 10.40230 03 17 57.860 +16 57 29.08 25.0w 15VM164 568 C~2lVX 2016 10 10.46065 03 17 57.542 +16 57 28.26 24.6w 15VM164 568 C~2lVX 2016 10 27.49100 03 16 14.782 +16 52 50.31 24.6w 15VM164 568 C~2lVX 2016 10 27.49679 03 16 14.741 +16 52 50.28 24.7w 15VM164 568 C~2lVX 2016 11 02.59707 03 15 34.154 +16 50 58.58 24.9w 15VM164 568 C~2lVX 2016 11 02.60285 03 15 34.116 +16 50 58.43 25.1w 15VM164 568 C~2lVX 2016 11 03.51606 03 15 27.932 +16 50 41.32 24.7w 15VM164 568 C~2lVX 2016 11 03.52184 03 15 27.898 +16 50 41.20 24.6w 15VM164 568 C~2lVX 2016 12 24.29598 03 10 09.593 +16 37 10.77 24.6w 15VM164 568 C~2lVX 2016 12 28.39306 03 09 51.376 +16 36 37.56 25.3w 15VM164 568 C~2lVX 2016 12 28.40104 03 09 51.346 +16 36 37.43 25.1w 15VM164 568 C~2lVX 2016 12 29.35861 03 09 47.362 +16 36 30.84 25.0w 15VM164 568 C~2lVX 2016 12 29.36878 03 09 47.319 +16 36 30.88 24.9w 15VM164 568 C~2lVX 2017 01 01.25561 03 09 35.934 +16 36 13.48 24.7w 15VM164 568 C~2lVX 2017 01 01.26608 03 09 35.883 +16 36 13.20 24.6w 15VM164 568 C~2lVX 2017 01 02.36563 03 09 31.790 +16 36 07.65 24.7w 15VM164 568 C~2lVX 2017 01 02.37586 03 09 31.752 +16 36 07.69 24.8w 15VM164 568 C~2lVX 2017 01 02.39822 03 09 31.662 +16 36 07.52 25.0w 15VM164 568 C~2lVX 2017 01 26.27054 03 08 40.783 +16 36 40.76 24.9w 15VM164 568 C~2lVX 2017 01 26.28489 03 08 40.777 +16 36 40.94 24.9w 15VM164 568 C~2lVX 2017 09 15.58856 03 28 26.684 +18 22 15.78 24.6w 15VM164 568 C~2lVX 2017 09 22.57478 03 28 05.971 +18 21 50.53 15VM164 568 C~2lVX 2017 12 16.34929 03 19 37.275 +18 01 37.33 24.7w 15VM164 568 C~2lVX 2017 12 16.36856 03 19 37.165 +18 01 36.99 24.4w 15VM164 568 C~2lVX
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.10
2 0.0003 -10.83 0.17 1.20 0.06
3 0.0006 -22.62 -0.12 1.91 -0.27
4 0.0055 -199.62 0.07 18.28 0.07
5 0.0168 -600.12 -0.04 56.47 0.14
6 0.8056 14267.09 0.09 2435.68 0.03
7 0.8193 14101.03 -0.03 2455.67 0.06
8 0.8875 12632.32 -0.00 2574.44 -0.07
9 0.8903 12553.76 0.00 2580.18 0.08
10 0.8905 12548.93 -0.14 2580.40 -0.06
11 0.8905 12548.12 -0.00 2580.75 0.22
12 0.8905 12547.07 0.01 2580.43 -0.17
13 0.9692 9897.21 0.04 2771.31 0.09
14 0.9694 9890.74 0.01 2771.80 0.06
15 0.9696 9883.43 -0.08 2772.36 0.03
16 0.9697 9876.50 0.08 2772.78 -0.12
17 0.9725 9773.87 0.05 2780.80 -0.02
18 0.9993 8789.93 -0.02 2860.51 0.05
19 0.9994 8784.95 -0.00 2860.92 0.01
20 1.0706 6384.39 -0.00 3105.21 0.01
21 1.0708 6379.55 -0.05 3105.82 -0.01
22 1.1228 5121.16 -0.13 3306.95 -0.09
23 1.1391 4851.10 0.13 3372.71 0.06
24 1.2155 4520.20 -0.03 3686.90 0.06
25 1.2319 4660.09 -0.13 3753.88 0.02
26 1.8051 22857.06 -0.11 5242.97 -0.01
27 1.8598 22011.51 -0.00 5355.20 -0.08
28 1.8976 21043.00 -0.07 5441.67 0.04
29 1.8978 21038.33 -0.00 5442.07 0.02
30 1.9444 19527.61 0.00 5560.24 -0.09
31 1.9444 19527.03 -0.01 5560.36 -0.01
32 1.9611 18930.30 0.15 5606.08 0.07
33 1.9611 18929.73 0.16 5606.08 0.02
34 1.9636 18838.81 -0.02 5613.00 -0.03
35 1.9636 18838.30 0.06 5613.01 -0.06
36 2.1027 14184.70 0.00 6053.14 0.05
37 2.1139 13922.37 -0.09 6091.99 -0.01
38 2.1139 13921.92 -0.04 6091.98 -0.09
39 2.1165 13864.73 0.01 6101.14 -0.05
40 2.1165 13864.15 0.04 6101.34 0.06
41 2.1244 13701.14 0.09 6128.92 0.09
42 2.1245 13700.36 -0.11 6128.85 -0.09
43 2.1275 13641.96 -0.00 6139.46 -0.06
44 2.1275 13641.44 0.03 6139.64 0.03
45 2.1276 13640.14 -0.07 6139.83 -0.00
46 2.1929 12942.42 0.03 6370.73 0.00
47 2.1930 12942.38 0.09 6370.93 0.06
48 2.8290 31204.04 -0.01 8110.91 0.05
49 2.8481 30905.46 -0.05 8159.52 0.09
50 3.0802 23454.03 0.02 8814.47 -0.01
51 3.0803 23452.40 0.02 8814.55 -0.10
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15VM164 quality flag:3 Type: 3:2E 3:2E 3:2E axisobj 39.650 39.659 39.641 ecceobj 0.260 0.260 0.260 incobj 18.255 18.255 18.255 qmin 28.035 27.876 29.106 qmax 51.542 51.658 50.257 amean 39.455 39.455 39.455 amin 38.965 38.968 38.965 amax 40.036 40.014 40.002 emean 0.234 0.238 0.216 emin 0.182 0.185 0.177 emax 0.288 0.292 0.260 imean 18.020 17.881 18.646 imin 15.654 15.572 17.305 imax 19.725 19.824 19.794 excite_mean 0.389 0.389 0.386 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 2.879 2.879 2.881 libcent 0 180.1 181.1 180.2 libamp 0 108.5 104.8 111.6 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 279.5 267.6 238.2 kozaiamp 68.6 67.4 179.9