The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15VM169 # Created Tue Jan 21 02:10:48 2025 # Orbit generated by ELGB # -->Covariance matrix from a Bernstein fit # Fitting 49 observations of 49 # Arc: 10.12y # First observation: 2014/11/17 # Last observation: 2024/12/31 # Chi-squared of fit: 50.04 DOF: 92 RMS: 0.18 # Min/Max residuals: -0.65 0.79 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 1.314513E-05 2.173987E-02 -7.803048E-06 -1.158343E-02 2.508855E-02 2.260085E-04 # Covariance matrix: 1.4302E-13 -8.6500E-14 -4.5148E-14 4.0809E-14 -4.2117E-14 -3.3345E-13 -8.6500E-14 7.1760E-14 4.1034E-14 -3.6891E-14 1.9214E-14 3.0228E-13 -4.5148E-14 4.1034E-14 7.9305E-14 -3.4968E-14 5.5673E-15 1.9143E-13 4.0809E-14 -3.6891E-14 -3.4968E-14 2.6798E-14 -5.9551E-15 -1.7164E-13 -4.2117E-14 1.9214E-14 5.5673E-15 -5.9551E-15 9.3488E-14 4.4749E-14 -3.3345E-13 3.0228E-13 1.9143E-13 -1.7164E-13 4.4749E-14 1.4084E-12 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 -2.190372 46.364885 -0.139778 -0.037290 -0.978841 2456978.802558 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2456978.5000 = 2014/11/17 Mean Anomaly: 106.46804 +/- 0.276 Argument of Peri: 76.99400 +/- 0.271 Long of Asc Node: 222.55977 +/- 0.000 Inclination: 28.12403 +/- 0.000 Eccentricity: 0.00983403 +/- 0.0000 Semi-Major Axis: 40.71974221 +/- 0.0020 Time of Perihelion: 2428909.7743 +/- 72.9 Perihelion: 40.31930308 +/- 0.0026 Aphelion: 41.12018133 +/- 0.0026 Period (y) 259.8458 +/- 0.02 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X 28.05675301 +/- 0.0003 Ecliptic Y 29.63354579 +/- 0.0004 Ecliptic Z -1.52372672 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic XDOT -0.00173764 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic YDOT 0.00161502 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic ZDOT -0.00126399 +/- 0.0000 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 40.83686687 +/- 0.0003 Geocenter to KBO 39.85885118 +/- 0.0005 # Hcoef: 8.15
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15VM169. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15VM169) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2014 11 17.30178 02 58 11.321 +14 37 56.19 23.9r 15VM169 568 C~2nw2 2014 11 17.41069 02 58 10.770 +14 37 53.11 24.1r 15VM169 568 C~2nw2 2014 11 17.52479 02 58 10.183 +14 37 49.98 24.5r 15VM169 568 C~2nw2 2014 11 19.31948 02 58 01.367 +14 37 00.86 24.2r 15VM169 568 C~2nw2 2014 11 23.42278 02 57 41.360 +14 35 10.21 24.8r 15VM169 568 C~2nw2 2015 08 11.63062 03 08 39.191 +14 55 24.38 24.2w 15VM169 568 C~2nw2 2015 08 12.57765 03 08 40.103 +14 55 17.83 24.1w 15VM169 568 C~2nw2 2015 09 07.53691 03 08 30.749 +14 50 03.44 24.2w 15VM169 568 C~2nw2 2015 09 12.53366 03 08 21.731 +14 48 34.69 24.6w 15VM169 568 C~2nw2 2015 10 07.48475 03 07 06.264 +14 39 19.55 24.4w 15VM169 568 C~2nw2 2015 10 08.48746 03 07 02.309 +14 38 54.09 24.3w 15VM169 568 C~2nw2 2015 10 08.54568 03 07 02.081 +14 38 52.83 24.8w 15VM169 568 C~2nw2 2015 10 08.55734 03 07 02.024 +14 38 52.14 24.6w 15VM169 568 C~2nw2 2015 10 08.57055 03 07 01.978 +14 38 52.02 24.4w 15VM169 568 C~2nw2 2015 11 06.30199 03 04 49.829 +14 25 49.73 24.1r 15VM169 568 C~2nw2 2015 11 06.36535 03 04 49.506 +14 25 48.15 24.4r 15VM169 568 C~2nw2 2015 11 06.43596 03 04 49.140 +14 25 46.10 24.1r 15VM169 568 C~2nw2 2015 11 06.50529 03 04 48.787 +14 25 44.08 24.2r 15VM169 568 C~2nw2 2015 11 17.29127 03 03 54.829 +14 20 47.30 24.5w 15VM169 568 C~2nw2 2015 11 17.34053 03 03 54.581 +14 20 46.03 24.2w 15VM169 568 C~2nw2 2015 12 13.35388 03 01 54.596 +14 10 07.60 24.4w 15VM169 568 C~2nw2 2016 01 07.35336 03 00 35.507 +14 03 08.47 25.0w 15VM169 568 C~2nw2 2016 02 04.28349 03 00 12.707 +14 00 29.30 24.4w 15VM169 568 C~2nw2 2016 02 10.27327 03 00 17.929 +14 00 39.65 24.7w 15VM169 568 C~2nw2 2016 09 07.54470 03 14 06.110 +14 31 52.00 24.9w 15VM169 568 C~2nw2 2016 09 25.60090 03 13 24.344 +14 25 46.70 24.7w 15VM169 568 C~2nw2 2016 09 26.60873 03 13 21.216 +14 25 23.62 24.1w 15VM169 568 C~2nw2 2016 10 10.41976 03 12 31.330 +14 19 44.58 24.9w 15VM169 568 C~2nw2 2016 10 10.47844 03 12 31.089 +14 19 43.15 24.4w 15VM169 568 C~2nw2 2016 10 10.53578 03 12 30.841 +14 19 41.69 24.6w 15VM169 568 C~2nw2 2016 10 10.54400 03 12 30.820 +14 19 41.48 24.4w 15VM169 568 C~2nw2 2016 10 10.59276 03 12 30.612 +14 19 40.20 24.7w 15VM169 568 C~2nw2 2016 10 27.51997 03 11 14.993 +14 12 05.59 24.3w 15VM169 568 C~2nw2 2016 10 27.53156 03 11 14.943 +14 12 05.33 24.3w 15VM169 568 C~2nw2 2016 11 03.54499 03 10 40.672 +14 08 52.19 24.4w 15VM169 568 C~2nw2 2016 11 03.55656 03 10 40.616 +14 08 52.00 24.3w 15VM169 568 C~2nw2 2016 12 28.38005 03 06 36.804 +13 47 51.40 15VM169 568 C~2nw2 2016 12 29.34560 03 06 33.904 +13 47 37.25 15VM169 568 C~2nw2 2017 01 01.24148 03 06 25.617 +13 46 56.47 15VM169 568 C~2nw2 2017 01 01.30776 03 06 25.418 +13 46 55.70 15VM169 568 C~2nw2 2017 01 02.35263 03 06 22.613 +13 46 41.73 15VM169 568 C~2nw2 2017 01 26.24903 03 05 45.364 +13 43 32.06 24.4w 15VM169 568 C~2nw2 2017 09 16.62185 03 19 25.242 +14 10 36.26 24.4w 15VM169 568 C~2nw2 2017 09 23.56066 03 19 07.981 +14 08 07.97 24.3w 15VM169 568 C~2nw2 2017 12 13.38122 03 13 09.915 +13 34 19.99 24.8w 15VM169 568 C~2nw2 2017 12 13.41861 03 13 09.739 +13 34 19.50 24.6w 15VM169 568 C~2nw2 2024 12 31.09330 03 50 59.512 +11 11 57.13 23.3G 15VM169 G37 2024 12 31.14455 03 50 59.309 +11 11 56.55 15VM169 G37 2024 12 31.19554 03 50 59.119 +11 11 56.24 15VM169 G37
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 0.08 0.00 0.13
2 0.0003 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.04
3 0.0006 0.00 -0.16 0.00 0.06
4 0.0055 0.00 0.07 0.00 0.04
5 0.0168 0.00 -0.04 0.00 -0.02
6 0.7319 0.00 -0.04 0.00 -0.04
7 0.7345 0.00 0.34 0.00 -0.07
8 0.8056 0.00 -0.01 0.00 -0.06
9 0.8193 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.06
10 0.8876 0.00 -0.07 0.00 0.01
11 0.8903 0.00 -0.14 0.00 0.02
12 0.8905 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.24
13 0.8905 0.00 -0.16 0.00 -0.15
14 0.8905 0.00 -0.04 0.00 0.07
15 0.9692 0.00 0.09 0.00 -0.14
16 0.9694 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.04
17 0.9696 0.00 -0.05 0.00 -0.05
18 0.9698 0.00 -0.06 0.00 -0.13
19 0.9993 0.00 0.01 0.00 -0.03
20 0.9994 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.03
21 1.0706 0.00 0.07 0.00 -0.02
22 1.1391 0.00 0.11 0.00 -0.01
23 1.2156 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.03
24 1.2320 0.00 -0.07 0.00 -0.16
25 1.8076 0.00 0.01 0.00 -0.05
26 1.8571 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.02
27 1.8598 0.00 -0.11 0.00 0.02
28 1.8977 0.00 0.03 0.00 -0.10
29 1.8978 0.00 0.06 0.00 -0.02
30 1.8980 0.00 -0.10 0.00 0.00
31 1.8980 0.00 0.10 0.00 0.00
32 1.8981 0.00 0.01 0.00 -0.01
33 1.9445 0.00 -0.01 0.00 -0.08
34 1.9445 0.00 0.09 0.00 -0.02
35 1.9637 0.00 -0.03 0.00 0.03
36 1.9637 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.16
37 2.1138 0.00 -0.08 0.00 -0.10
38 2.1165 0.00 0.11 0.00 0.07
39 2.1244 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.03
40 2.1246 0.00 -0.16 0.00 0.15
41 2.1274 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.02
42 2.1929 0.00 0.06 0.00 -0.04
43 2.8318 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.02
44 2.8508 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.02
45 3.0721 0.00 0.14 0.00 -0.09
46 3.0722 0.00 -0.11 0.00 0.17
47 10.1213 0.00 0.79 0.00 -0.53
48 10.1214 0.00 0.63 0.00 -0.65
49 10.1215 0.00 0.65 0.00 -0.50
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15VM169 quality flag:3 Type: SCATEXTD SCATEXTD SCATEXTD axisobj 40.988 40.988 40.988 ecceobj 0.014 0.014 0.014 incobj 28.029 28.029 28.029 qmin 39.657 39.633 39.639 qmax 41.928 41.929 41.928 amean 40.726 40.728 40.726 amin 40.421 40.430 40.433 amax 41.025 41.025 41.027 emean 0.012 0.012 0.012 emin 0.002 0.002 0.001 emax 0.022 0.022 0.022 imean 29.036 29.037 29.036 imin 28.709 28.709 28.704 imax 29.368 29.372 29.370 excite_mean 0.486 0.486 0.486 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 2.773 2.773 2.773 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 185.9 184.3 185.5 kozaiamp 179.9 180.0 179.9