The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15VM170 # Created Sun Apr 27 01:10:42 2025 # Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism # Fitting 36 observations of 36 # Arc: 3.07y # First observation: 2014/11/17 # Last observation: 2017/12/13 Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: -0.000039 0.027316 0.000002 -0.002496 0.025854 0.000000 # Chi-squared of fit: 6.83 DOF: 66 RMS: 0.08 # Min/Max residuals: -0.31 0.20 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 1.632054E-05 2.739543E-02 -2.118773E-06 -2.504074E-03 2.593609E-02 -8.396487E-04 # Covariance matrix: 2.5312E-13 -2.8873E-13 -7.2835E-15 1.7582E-14 -1.1630E-13 -2.6849E-12 -2.8873E-13 5.1040E-13 1.6401E-14 -3.9377E-14 2.4628E-13 6.0234E-12 -7.2835E-15 1.6401E-14 1.6531E-13 -9.2633E-14 8.5881E-15 2.2298E-13 1.7582E-14 -3.9377E-14 -9.2633E-14 7.0780E-14 -2.2385E-14 -5.3523E-13 -1.1630E-13 2.4628E-13 8.5881E-15 -2.2385E-14 2.5720E-13 3.3394E-12 -2.6849E-12 6.0234E-12 2.2298E-13 -5.3523E-13 3.3394E-12 8.1878E-11 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 -2.432960 49.338136 -0.089051 -0.041683 -0.984575 2456978.818008 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2456970.5000 = 2014/11/09 Mean Anomaly: 348.40419 +/- 0.118 Argument of Peri: 219.65790 +/- 0.157 Long of Asc Node: 205.08815 +/- 0.002 Inclination: 5.73082 +/- 0.000 Eccentricity: 0.13158052 +/- 0.0001 Semi-Major Axis: 45.34672784 +/- 0.0035 Time of Perihelion: 2460563.1594 +/- 36.7 Perihelion: 39.37998169 +/- 0.0056 Aphelion: 51.31347399 +/- 0.0061 Period (y) 305.3705 +/- 0.04 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X 25.67183501 +/- 0.0005 Ecliptic Y 30.02828298 +/- 0.0006 Ecliptic Z -1.63683050 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic XDOT -0.00226299 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic YDOT 0.00180369 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic ZDOT -0.00026023 +/- 0.0000 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 39.54010756 +/- 0.0005 Geocenter to KBO 38.55631686 +/- 0.0008 # Hcoef: 8.31
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15VM170. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15VM170) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2014 11 17.31723 03 10 17.161 +15 13 11.06 23.8r 15VM170 568 C~2nw5 2014 11 17.42609 03 10 16.594 +15 13 08.47 24.2r 15VM170 568 C~2nw5 2014 11 17.54029 03 10 16.007 +15 13 06.20 24.4r 15VM170 568 C~2nw5 2014 11 19.33914 03 10 06.838 +15 12 27.30 24.2r 15VM170 568 C~2nw5 2014 11 23.44182 03 09 46.082 +15 11 00.30 24.2r 15VM170 568 C~2nw5 2015 09 07.62490 03 21 15.579 +15 51 22.57 24.6w 15VM170 568 C~2nw5 2015 09 12.48855 03 21 08.278 +15 50 30.10 24.8w 15VM170 568 C~2nw5 2015 10 07.53269 03 19 57.601 +15 44 06.80 24.3w 15VM170 568 C~2nw5 2015 11 06.34408 03 17 41.179 +15 33 51.82 24.2r 15VM170 568 C~2nw5 2015 11 06.41470 03 17 40.821 +15 33 50.36 24.4r 15VM170 568 C~2nw6 2015 11 06.48426 03 17 40.451 +15 33 48.80 24.0r 15VM170 568 C~2nw6 2015 11 07.50182 03 17 35.251 +15 33 26.61 24.4w 15VM170 568 C~2nw6 2015 11 17.48361 03 16 43.855 +15 29 51.90 23.6w 15VM170 568 C~2nw6 2015 11 17.57138 03 16 43.397 +15 29 49.96 24.9w 15VM170 568 C~2nw6 2015 12 06.34926 03 15 10.059 +15 23 37.05 24.3w 15VM170 568 C~2nw6 2015 12 06.48675 03 15 09.400 +15 23 34.59 24.6w 15VM170 568 C~2nw6 2015 12 31.37031 03 13 31.132 +15 17 33.73 15VM170 568 C~2nw6 2016 01 07.39971 03 13 11.701 +15 16 30.69 24.5w 15VM170 568 C~2nw6 2016 02 04.34036 03 12 41.445 +15 15 40.73 24.7w 15VM170 568 C~2nw6 2016 02 11.22942 03 12 46.413 +15 16 19.55 24.6w 15VM170 568 C~2nw6 2016 09 07.58521 03 27 37.371 +16 06 29.03 24.6w 15VM170 568 C~2nw6 2016 09 27.51883 03 26 55.047 +16 02 13.50 24.7w 15VM170 568 C~2nw6 2016 09 29.49637 03 26 48.947 +16 01 41.94 24.4w 15VM170 568 C~2nw6 2016 10 07.50403 03 26 21.167 +15 59 25.10 24.3w 15VM170 568 C~2nw6 2016 10 07.59973 03 26 20.789 +15 59 23.15 24.6w 15VM170 568 C~2nw6 2016 10 09.50422 03 26 13.499 +15 58 48.64 24.2w 15VM170 568 C~2nw6 2016 10 09.57681 03 26 13.207 +15 58 47.26 24.2w 15VM170 568 C~2nw6 2016 11 02.49102 03 24 24.539 +15 50 47.71 24.3w 15VM170 568 C~2nw6 2016 11 04.46713 03 24 14.567 +15 50 06.05 24.6w 15VM170 568 C~2nw6 2016 12 24.33677 03 20 16.254 +15 34 54.93 24.6w 15VM170 568 C~2nw6 2016 12 28.44224 03 20 01.705 +15 34 06.19 24.6w 15VM170 568 C~2nw6 2016 12 28.45409 03 20 01.663 +15 34 06.02 24.8w 15VM170 568 C~2nw6 2017 01 02.43952 03 19 45.809 +15 33 15.04 24.5w 15VM170 568 C~2nw6 2017 01 27.30860 03 19 00.716 +15 31 25.41 24.6w 15VM170 568 C~2nw6 2017 09 23.53642 03 33 32.720 +16 17 56.36 24.3w 15VM170 568 C~2nw6 2017 12 13.36708 03 27 28.825 +15 53 00.17 24.6w 15VM170 568 C~2nw6
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 0.08 0.00 0.12
2 0.0003 -8.60 0.00 -0.29 -0.11
3 0.0006 -17.39 0.15 -0.19 0.08
4 0.0055 -155.68 -0.03 -2.00 -0.02
5 0.0168 -468.47 -0.03 -4.98 -0.09
6 0.8058 9790.40 -0.02 -286.52 -0.03
7 0.8191 9674.86 0.03 -310.26 0.02
8 0.8877 8588.33 -0.03 -418.50 0.01
9 0.9693 6523.03 -0.02 -502.02 0.07
10 0.9695 6517.65 0.10 -502.08 0.10
11 0.9697 6512.07 -0.03 -502.20 0.09
12 0.9724 6433.67 -0.10 -504.05 0.00
13 0.9998 5659.91 0.07 -517.47 -0.00
14 1.0000 5653.00 0.06 -517.61 -0.06
15 1.0514 4252.12 -0.09 -523.43 -0.07
16 1.0518 4242.27 -0.14 -523.29 -0.01
17 1.1199 2775.52 -0.05 -495.86 -0.14
18 1.1392 2487.66 0.09 -482.08 0.08
19 1.2157 2052.25 -0.31 -413.91 -0.06
20 1.2345 2131.88 0.00 -395.61 -0.04
21 1.8077 15367.41 0.02 -801.38 0.03
22 1.8623 14709.45 0.01 -896.91 0.04
23 1.8677 14615.95 -0.07 -905.51 -0.01
24 1.8896 14191.85 0.12 -937.84 0.12
25 1.8899 14186.06 -0.06 -938.36 -0.06
26 1.8951 14075.13 0.01 -945.44 0.05
27 1.8953 14070.69 -0.03 -945.72 0.02
28 1.9608 12426.13 -0.04 -1015.32 -0.05
29 1.9662 12275.83 0.02 -1019.24 -0.05
30 2.1027 8706.74 0.20 -1021.69 0.05
31 2.1140 8490.68 0.10 -1014.61 -0.02
32 2.1140 8490.05 0.08 -1014.62 -0.05
33 2.1276 8255.17 0.03 -1004.76 -0.00
34 2.1957 7596.32 -0.02 -942.14 -0.04
35 2.8507 20537.38 -0.06 -1394.69 0.04
36 3.0720 15045.05 -0.03 -1556.07 -0.02
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15VM170 quality flag:3 Type: CLASSICAL CLASSICAL CLASSICAL axisobj 45.716 45.726 45.707 ecceobj 0.137 0.137 0.137 incobj 5.708 5.708 5.708 qmin 38.416 38.480 38.421 qmax 52.529 52.564 52.486 amean 45.314 45.326 45.303 amin 44.942 44.950 44.921 amax 45.730 45.752 45.732 emean 0.135 0.135 0.135 emin 0.122 0.122 0.122 emax 0.149 0.149 0.148 imean 6.627 6.638 6.632 imin 6.034 6.044 6.036 imax 7.227 7.258 7.231 excite_mean 0.178 0.178 0.178 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 3.079 3.079 3.079 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 183.1 183.6 182.9 kozaiamp 180.0 180.0 180.0