The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15VM172 # Created Tue Apr 1 01:10:42 2025 # Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism # Fitting 30 observations of 30 # Arc: 2.34y # First observation: 2015/08/11 # Last observation: 2017/12/13 Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: -0.000105 0.023800 0.000000 0.000623 0.023779 0.000000 # Chi-squared of fit: 7.56 DOF: 54 RMS: 0.09 # Min/Max residuals: -0.30 0.24 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 1.460303E-05 2.338447E-02 6.927265E-07 6.133515E-04 2.347935E-02 1.248259E-03 # Covariance matrix: 2.1947E-13 2.6621E-14 -1.2418E-15 5.4985E-15 1.8647E-13 4.9012E-12 2.6621E-14 4.0512E-13 -3.9292E-15 1.6480E-14 3.0382E-13 1.4583E-11 -1.2418E-15 -3.9292E-15 1.1303E-13 -9.4856E-14 -3.9358E-15 -2.3035E-13 5.4985E-15 1.6480E-14 -9.4856E-14 1.3743E-13 1.6784E-14 9.5675E-13 1.8647E-13 3.0382E-13 -3.9358E-15 1.6784E-14 3.9062E-13 1.4887E-11 4.9012E-12 1.4583E-11 -2.3035E-13 9.5675E-13 1.4887E-11 8.4549E-10 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 -0.074432 50.660704 1.015190 0.000171 0.037858 2457246.073039 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2457240.5000 = 2015/08/06 Mean Anomaly: 19.38808 +/- 0.771 Argument of Peri: 334.57658 +/- 0.912 Long of Asc Node: 52.13375 +/- 0.001 Inclination: 1.50349 +/- 0.001 Eccentricity: 0.07611979 +/- 0.0005 Semi-Major Axis: 45.81901301 +/- 0.0054 Time of Perihelion: 2451139.5252 +/- 242.5 Perihelion: 42.33127919 +/- 0.0256 Aphelion: 49.30674684 +/- 0.0258 Period (y) 310.1536 +/- 0.06 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X 27.75580550 +/- 0.0007 Ecliptic Y 32.26690333 +/- 0.0009 Ecliptic Z -0.05526608 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic XDOT -0.00201864 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic YDOT 0.00183484 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic ZDOT 0.00007139 +/- 0.0000 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 42.56219971 +/- 0.0008 Geocenter to KBO 42.59060999 +/- 0.0011 # Hcoef: 8.47
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15VM172. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15VM172) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2015 08 11.57225 03 12 58.699 +17 50 43.72 24.4w 15VM172 568 C~2nwD 2015 09 06.61892 03 12 54.354 +17 50 33.55 24.8w 15VM172 568 C~2nwD 2015 09 12.50905 03 12 44.759 +17 49 57.39 25.2w 15VM172 568 C~2nwD 2015 10 07.43408 03 11 33.138 +17 45 22.15 25.1w 15VM172 568 C~2nwD 2015 10 08.44583 03 11 29.310 +17 45 07.46 24.9w 15VM172 568 C~2nwD 2015 10 08.50488 03 11 29.083 +17 45 06.63 24.8w 15VM172 568 C~2nwD 2015 11 07.35377 03 09 15.629 +17 36 25.52 24.9r 15VM172 568 C~2nwD 2015 11 07.39585 03 09 15.422 +17 36 24.74 24.6r 15VM172 568 C~2nwD 2015 11 07.43803 03 09 15.217 +17 36 23.91 24.5r 15VM172 568 C~2nwD 2015 11 10.52298 03 09 00.116 +17 35 24.54 24.7w 15VM172 568 C~2nwD 2015 11 17.36965 03 08 26.609 +17 33 12.54 24.7w 15VM172 568 C~2nwD 2015 11 17.41626 03 08 26.372 +17 33 11.64 24.6w 15VM172 568 C~2nwD 2015 12 06.37850 03 06 57.738 +17 27 21.08 25.0w 15VM172 568 C~2nwD 2015 12 13.31287 03 06 28.580 +17 25 25.63 25.3w 15VM172 568 C~2nwD 2015 12 13.37141 03 06 28.348 +17 25 24.68 25.0w 15VM172 568 C~2nwD 2016 01 01.36607 03 05 23.668 +17 21 09.21 24.5w 15VM172 568 C~2nwD 2016 02 04.28927 03 04 43.346 +17 18 39.49 24.4w 15VM172 568 C~2nwD 2016 02 10.27908 03 04 47.754 +17 19 00.06 24.9w 15VM172 568 C~2nwD 2016 09 06.61138 03 18 19.992 +18 13 44.29 25.0w 15VM172 568 C~2nwD 2016 09 26.60062 03 17 36.419 +18 11 04.37 25.3w 15VM172 568 C~2nwD 2016 10 10.40808 03 16 48.501 +18 08 05.62 24.9w 15VM172 568 C~2nwD 2016 10 10.46643 03 16 48.268 +18 08 04.81 25.1w 15VM172 568 C~2nwD 2016 10 27.50259 03 15 34.523 +18 03 26.69 25.1w 15VM172 568 C~2nwD 2016 11 02.60863 03 15 05.494 +18 01 36.79 25.0w 15VM172 568 C~2nwD 2016 12 29.37514 03 10 56.931 +17 45 43.74 25.8w 15VM172 568 C~2nwD 2016 12 29.38063 03 10 56.913 +17 45 43.54 25.5w 15VM172 568 C~2nwD 2017 01 02.38235 03 10 45.510 +17 45 00.05 25.3w 15VM172 568 C~2nwD 2017 01 02.38784 03 10 45.501 +17 45 00.06 25.2w 15VM172 568 C~2nwD 2017 01 26.27742 03 10 06.563 +17 42 34.48 25.2w 15VM172 568 C~2nwD 2017 12 13.41395 03 17 24.376 +18 12 59.66 24.8w 15VM172 568 C~2nwD
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 0.24 0.00 -0.06
2 0.0713 -62.52 -0.03 6.63 0.08
3 0.0874 -204.21 -0.09 8.08 0.03
4 0.1557 -1263.50 -0.08 14.82 -0.13
5 0.1584 -1320.13 -0.03 15.25 -0.01
6 0.1586 -1323.48 0.02 15.32 0.01
7 0.2403 -3300.89 -0.01 24.92 0.04
8 0.2404 -3303.95 0.01 24.97 0.05
9 0.2406 -3307.00 0.07 24.96 0.01
10 0.2490 -3530.98 -0.03 26.05 -0.00
11 0.2678 -4028.15 0.04 28.50 0.03
12 0.2679 -4031.65 -0.04 28.55 0.04
13 0.3198 -5347.83 0.21 35.60 -0.10
14 0.3388 -5781.08 -0.03 38.39 -0.06
15 0.3389 -5784.54 0.08 38.38 -0.11
16 0.3909 -6745.86 0.05 46.25 -0.08
17 0.4838 -7342.83 -0.30 61.06 0.20
18 0.5002 -7276.40 -0.04 63.45 0.04
19 1.0733 4784.94 -0.08 134.60 0.12
20 1.1281 4143.53 0.04 140.54 -0.12
21 1.1659 3437.33 -0.01 145.06 -0.01
22 1.1660 3433.91 -0.01 145.14 0.02
23 1.2127 2346.09 -0.08 150.78 -0.08
24 1.2294 1917.69 -0.12 153.13 0.14
25 1.3848 -1756.19 0.05 173.80 -0.01
26 1.3848 -1756.49 0.00 173.67 -0.14
27 1.3958 -1925.10 -0.01 175.36 0.05
28 1.3958 -1925.22 0.10 175.41 0.09
29 1.4612 -2500.28 0.01 184.36 -0.04
30 2.3404 4007.58 0.07 296.37 -0.02
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15VM172 quality flag:3 Type: CLASSICAL CLASSICAL CLASSICAL axisobj 46.308 46.332 46.285 ecceobj 0.086 0.088 0.085 incobj 1.499 1.499 1.498 qmin 41.433 41.396 41.484 qmax 50.654 50.735 50.582 amean 45.919 45.942 45.897 amin 45.544 45.562 45.519 amax 46.317 46.346 46.296 emean 0.081 0.083 0.080 emin 0.068 0.070 0.066 emax 0.094 0.095 0.093 imean 1.118 1.116 1.120 imin 0.641 0.638 0.643 imax 1.539 1.538 1.540 excite_mean 0.084 0.085 0.082 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 3.117 3.117 3.117 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 191.1 194.0 188.5 kozaiamp 180.0 180.0 180.0