The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15VM173 # Created Tue Apr 1 01:10:43 2025 # Orbit generated by ELGB # -->Covariance matrix from a Bernstein fit # Fitting 44 observations of 44 # Arc: 10.12y # First observation: 2014/11/17 # Last observation: 2024/12/31 # Chi-squared of fit: 4.01 DOF: 82 RMS: 0.05 # Min/Max residuals: -0.13 0.26 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 1.429765E-05 2.067139E-02 -4.682622E-07 -6.228766E-04 2.253927E-02 8.511385E-04 # Covariance matrix: 1.4758E-13 -1.0256E-13 -2.9438E-15 2.8272E-15 -3.7858E-15 -4.6713E-13 -1.0256E-13 9.7469E-14 2.9952E-15 -2.8517E-15 9.7139E-16 4.7131E-13 -2.9438E-15 2.9952E-15 5.6923E-14 -1.1321E-14 -9.2974E-16 1.5617E-14 2.8272E-15 -2.8517E-15 -1.1321E-14 5.5660E-15 9.9669E-17 -1.4647E-14 -3.7858E-15 9.7139E-16 -9.2974E-16 9.9669E-17 9.1118E-14 -2.0721E-14 -4.6713E-13 4.7131E-13 1.5617E-14 -1.4647E-14 -2.0721E-14 2.4220E-12 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 -1.753952 48.397963 -0.104497 -0.029970 -0.983485 2456978.777218 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2456978.5000 = 2014/11/17 Mean Anomaly: 125.29793 +/- 0.089 Argument of Peri: 94.90406 +/- 0.084 Long of Asc Node: 183.71058 +/- 0.004 Inclination: 2.43353 +/- 0.000 Eccentricity: 0.05159406 +/- 0.0000 Semi-Major Axis: 43.96444371 +/- 0.0027 Time of Perihelion: 2419919.6271 +/- 26.5 Perihelion: 41.69613972 +/- 0.0032 Aphelion: 46.23274770 +/- 0.0034 Period (y) 291.5148 +/- 0.03 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X 30.01582425 +/- 0.0004 Ecliptic Y 33.96763147 +/- 0.0004 Ecliptic Z -1.35799581 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic XDOT -0.00181483 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic YDOT 0.00173774 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic ZDOT -0.00007869 +/- 0.0000 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 45.34965783 +/- 0.0004 Geocenter to KBO 44.36702477 +/- 0.0006 # Hcoef: 6.11
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15VM173. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15VM173) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2014 11 17.27644 03 05 46.149 +15 37 05.67 22.5r 15VM173 568 C~2nwH 2014 11 17.38513 03 05 45.643 +15 37 03.62 22.7r 15VM173 568 C~2nwH 2014 11 17.49897 03 05 45.112 +15 37 01.48 22.5r 15VM173 568 C~2nwH 2014 11 19.28749 03 05 36.984 +15 36 27.89 22.5r 15VM173 568 C~2nwH 2014 11 23.39103 03 05 18.457 +15 35 12.03 22.7r 15VM173 568 C~2nwH 2015 08 11.61007 03 14 48.898 +16 14 18.80 22.8w 15VM173 568 C~2nwH 2015 09 06.62757 03 14 44.427 +16 12 50.26 22.7w 15VM173 568 C~2nwH 2015 09 12.51723 03 14 35.402 +16 11 59.54 22.7w 15VM173 568 C~2nwH 2015 10 07.45292 03 13 28.171 +16 06 39.42 23.0w 15VM173 568 C~2nwH 2015 10 08.45753 03 13 24.607 +16 06 23.60 22.8w 15VM173 568 C~2nwH 2015 10 08.51654 03 13 24.392 +16 06 22.58 23.0w 15VM173 568 C~2nwH 2015 11 07.36426 03 11 19.178 +15 57 28.61 22.6r 15VM173 568 C~2nwH 2015 11 07.40638 03 11 18.983 +15 57 27.78 22.8r 15VM173 568 C~2nwH 2015 11 07.44859 03 11 18.783 +15 57 27.00 22.6r 15VM173 568 C~2nwH 2015 11 10.53471 03 11 04.582 +15 56 28.76 22.7w 15VM173 568 C~2nwH 2015 11 17.38127 03 10 33.053 +15 54 20.54 22.8w 15VM173 568 C~2nwH 2015 11 17.42797 03 10 32.835 +15 54 19.68 22.6w 15VM173 568 C~2nwH 2015 12 06.39016 03 09 09.152 +15 48 48.68 23.0w 15VM173 568 C~2nwH 2015 12 13.32462 03 08 41.520 +15 47 02.86 22.7w 15VM173 568 C~2nwH 2015 12 13.38310 03 08 41.294 +15 47 01.99 22.7w 15VM173 568 C~2nwH 2016 01 01.37764 03 07 39.477 +15 43 16.45 22.8w 15VM173 568 C~2nwH 2016 01 07.32440 03 07 25.258 +15 42 28.90 22.8w 15VM173 568 C~2nwH 2016 02 04.30735 03 06 58.554 +15 41 36.96 22.9w 15VM173 568 C~2nwH 2016 02 04.31413 03 06 58.561 +15 41 36.97 22.8w 15VM173 568 C~2nwH 2016 02 04.32117 03 06 58.560 +15 41 37.02 23.0w 15VM173 568 C~2nwH 2016 02 04.32803 03 06 58.556 +15 41 37.10 23.1w 15VM173 568 C~2nwH 2016 02 05.26985 03 06 58.895 +15 41 40.45 23.1w 15VM173 568 C~2nwH 2016 02 10.29068 03 07 02.015 +15 42 04.11 22.9w 15VM173 568 C~2nwH 2016 09 06.59240 03 19 26.637 +16 28 55.63 22.9w 15VM173 568 C~2nwH 2016 09 26.58845 03 18 45.478 +16 25 28.81 22.8w 15VM173 568 C~2nwH 2016 10 10.39070 03 18 00.492 +16 22 08.26 23.1w 15VM173 568 C~2nwH 2016 10 10.44903 03 18 00.270 +16 22 07.30 22.9w 15VM173 568 C~2nwH 2016 11 02.60285 03 16 23.792 +16 15 24.06 23.0w 15VM173 568 C~2nwH 2016 11 03.52184 03 16 19.635 +16 15 07.16 23.0w 15VM173 568 C~2nwH 2016 12 24.30148 03 12 44.732 +16 01 23.22 22.8w 15VM173 568 C~2nwH 2017 01 02.40371 03 12 18.258 +15 59 52.58 22.8w 15VM173 568 C~2nwI 2017 01 26.29235 03 11 40.036 +15 58 07.81 22.7w 15VM173 568 C~2nwI 2017 09 23.54857 03 23 38.851 +16 42 02.38 23.2w 15VM173 568 C~2nwI 2019 10 26.359500 03 31 18.68 +17 04 57.2 22.5G 15VM173 705 C~3cuO 2019 10 26.407170 03 31 18.47 +17 04 56.5 22.5G 15VM173 705 C~3cuO 2019 10 26.470610 03 31 18.22 +17 04 55.4 22.8G 15VM173 705 C~3cuO 2024 12 31.089580 03 50 30.896 +18 00 02.89 22.8G 15VM173 G37 C~8cQu 2024 12 31.140850 03 50 30.722 +18 00 02.45 15VM173 G37 C~8cQu 2024 12 31.191910 03 50 30.554 +18 00 01.95 15VM173 G37 C~8cQu
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.02
2 0.0003 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00
3 0.0006 0.00 -0.02 0.00 0.02
4 0.0055 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.01
5 0.0167 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01
6 0.7319 0.00 -0.06 0.00 0.03
7 0.8032 0.00 -0.09 0.00 0.13
8 0.8193 0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.05
9 0.8875 0.00 -0.01 0.00 -0.02
10 0.8903 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.08
11 0.8905 0.00 -0.00 0.00 -0.01
12 0.9722 0.00 0.09 0.00 -0.03
13 0.9723 0.00 0.11 0.00 -0.07
14 0.9724 0.00 0.07 0.00 -0.06
15 0.9809 0.00 -0.03 0.00 -0.02
16 0.9996 0.00 -0.00 0.00 -0.02
17 0.9997 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01
18 1.0516 0.00 -0.03 0.00 0.04
19 1.0706 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.02
20 1.0708 0.00 0.05 0.00 -0.00
21 1.1228 0.00 0.06 0.00 -0.06
22 1.1391 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.02
23 1.2157 0.00 -0.05 0.00 -0.04
24 1.2157 0.00 0.03 0.00 -0.06
25 1.2157 0.00 -0.02 0.00 -0.03
26 1.2157 0.00 -0.10 0.00 0.03
27 1.2183 0.00 0.02 0.00 -0.01
28 1.2321 0.00 -0.01 0.00 -0.02
29 1.8051 0.00 -0.04 0.00 0.02
30 1.8599 0.00 0.02 0.00 -0.01
31 1.8976 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.03
32 1.8978 0.00 -0.03 0.00 -0.01
33 1.9612 0.00 -0.07 0.00 0.02
34 1.9637 0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.01
35 2.1027 0.00 0.03 0.00 -0.03
36 2.1277 0.00 0.01 0.00 -0.02
37 2.1931 0.00 -0.02 0.00 0.02
38 2.8508 0.00 -0.04 0.00 -0.04
39 4.9393 0.00 -0.01 0.00 -0.03
40 4.9394 0.00 -0.08 0.00 0.06
41 4.9396 0.00 0.26 0.00 0.01
42 10.1213 0.00 -0.13 0.00 0.00
43 10.1215 0.00 -0.05 0.00 0.02
44 10.1216 0.00 0.11 0.00 -0.02
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15VM173 quality flag:3 Type: CLASSICAL CLASSICAL CLASSICAL axisobj 44.299 44.299 44.299 ecceobj 0.052 0.052 0.052 incobj 2.424 2.424 2.424 qmin 40.918 40.925 40.913 qmax 47.207 47.194 47.215 amean 43.982 43.982 43.982 amin 43.639 43.638 43.640 amax 44.342 44.343 44.339 emean 0.050 0.050 0.050 emin 0.033 0.033 0.033 emax 0.066 0.065 0.066 imean 3.233 3.233 3.233 imin 2.551 2.551 2.551 imax 3.888 3.888 3.888 excite_mean 0.076 0.076 0.076 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 3.095 3.095 3.095 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 175.0 175.0 175.0 kozaiamp 180.0 180.0 180.0