The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15VN173 # Created Tue Apr 1 01:10:43 2025 # Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism # Fitting 32 observations of 32 # Arc: 2.19y # First observation: 2014/11/17 # Last observation: 2017/01/26 Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: -0.000036 0.020654 -0.000001 0.001621 0.022621 0.000000 # Chi-squared of fit: 9.19 DOF: 58 RMS: 0.09 # Min/Max residuals: -0.32 0.17 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 1.358722E-05 2.074504E-02 1.730385E-06 1.632540E-03 2.276760E-02 -1.316378E-04 # Covariance matrix: 2.6918E-13 -3.5619E-13 7.4763E-15 -1.9672E-14 -1.7110E-13 -5.2528E-12 -3.5619E-13 7.6747E-13 -2.0750E-14 5.5439E-14 4.4177E-13 1.4747E-11 7.4763E-15 -2.0750E-14 1.8284E-13 -1.1939E-13 -1.4107E-14 -4.5897E-13 -1.9672E-14 5.5439E-14 -1.1939E-13 1.0662E-13 3.5109E-14 1.2329E-12 -1.7110E-13 4.4177E-13 -1.4107E-14 3.5109E-14 4.0196E-13 9.5088E-12 -5.2528E-12 1.4747E-11 -4.5897E-13 1.2329E-12 9.5088E-12 3.2753E-10 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 -2.821709 47.530931 -0.119286 -0.048209 -0.981075 2456978.772168 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2456970.5000 = 2014/11/09 Mean Anomaly: 187.32164 +/- 0.934 Argument of Peri: 141.79196 +/- 0.934 Long of Asc Node: 79.13022 +/- 0.005 Inclination: 5.28001 +/- 0.001 Eccentricity: 0.05029448 +/- 0.0001 Semi-Major Axis: 42.76739432 +/- 0.0029 Time of Perihelion: 2505971.2832 +/- 264.9 Perihelion: 40.61643043 +/- 0.0055 Aphelion: 44.91835821 +/- 0.0057 Period (y) 279.6903 +/- 0.03 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X 30.19199942 +/- 0.0008 Ecliptic Y 33.16605617 +/- 0.0009 Ecliptic Z -2.16214141 +/- 0.0001 Ecliptic XDOT -0.00184857 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic YDOT 0.00167486 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic ZDOT 0.00019696 +/- 0.0000 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 44.90232696 +/- 0.0009 Geocenter to KBO 43.92205769 +/- 0.0012 # Hcoef: 8.26
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15VN173. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15VN173) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2014 11 17.27139 03 03 32.396 +14 21 10.82 24.2r 15VN173 568 C~2nwI 2014 11 17.38009 03 03 31.867 +14 21 09.03 24.9r 15VN173 568 C~2nwI 2014 11 17.49387 03 03 31.341 +14 21 07.02 24.8r 15VN173 568 C~2nwI 2014 11 19.28114 03 03 23.147 +14 20 35.25 24.3r 15VN173 568 C~2nwI 2014 11 23.38468 03 03 04.481 +14 19 24.59 24.6r 15VN173 568 C~2nwI 2015 08 11.58456 03 12 32.744 +15 06 07.94 24.8w 15VN173 568 C~2nwI 2015 09 06.63168 03 12 26.278 +15 04 30.13 24.8w 15VN173 568 C~2nwI 2015 09 12.52133 03 12 16.753 +15 03 37.38 24.8w 15VN173 568 C~2nwI 2015 10 08.46335 03 11 03.888 +14 57 56.49 24.7w 15VN173 568 C~2nwI 2015 10 08.52236 03 11 03.671 +14 57 55.38 24.8w 15VN173 568 C~2nwI 2015 11 07.36952 03 08 56.468 +14 49 11.56 24.7r 15VN173 568 C~2nwI 2015 11 07.41164 03 08 56.273 +14 49 10.73 24.6r 15VN173 568 C~2nwI 2015 11 07.45387 03 08 56.075 +14 49 09.96 24.9r 15VN173 568 C~2nwI 2015 11 10.54061 03 08 41.705 +14 48 14.03 24.5w 15VN173 568 C~2nwI 2015 12 06.39596 03 06 45.293 +14 41 04.34 24.8w 15VN173 568 C~2nwI 2015 12 13.33048 03 06 17.512 +14 39 30.20 25.3w 15VN173 568 C~2nwI 2015 12 13.38903 03 06 17.282 +14 39 29.45 25.1w 15VN173 568 C~2nwI 2016 01 01.38342 03 05 15.330 +14 36 22.31 25.2w 15VN173 568 C~2nwI 2016 01 02.34977 03 05 12.829 +14 36 15.61 24.3w 15VN173 568 C~2nwI 2016 01 07.33018 03 05 01.165 +14 35 48.13 24.9w 15VN173 568 C~2nwI 2016 02 05.27611 03 04 35.358 +14 36 15.52 24.9w 15VN173 568 C~2nwI 2016 02 10.29646 03 04 38.628 +14 36 53.00 25.2w 15VN173 568 C~2nwI 2016 09 06.61716 03 17 00.240 +15 28 23.18 15VN173 568 C~2nwI 2016 09 26.60468 03 16 17.364 +15 24 53.28 25.7w 15VN173 568 C~2nwI 2016 10 10.41386 03 15 31.189 +15 21 32.63 24.9w 15VN173 568 C~2nwI 2016 10 10.47261 03 15 30.951 +15 21 31.71 24.9w 15VN173 568 C~2nwI 2016 10 27.50838 03 14 20.454 +15 16 44.66 25.1w 15VN173 568 C~2nwI 2016 11 03.53341 03 13 48.573 +15 14 39.91 25.1w 15VN173 568 C~2nwI 2016 12 28.40571 03 09 59.173 +15 01 24.07 26.2w 15VN173 568 C~2nwI 2016 12 29.36323 03 09 56.393 +15 01 16.33 25.2w 15VN173 568 C~2nwI 2017 01 02.37026 03 09 45.446 +15 00 47.89 15VN173 568 C~2nwI 2017 01 26.25843 03 09 07.523 +14 59 58.35 25.2w 15VN173 568 C~2nwI
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 0.17 0.00 -0.12
2 0.0003 -7.88 -0.08 0.41 0.08
3 0.0006 -15.78 0.02 0.60 0.07
4 0.0055 -139.00 -0.05 3.10 -0.13
5 0.0167 -419.23 0.04 10.51 0.06
6 0.7319 8281.58 -0.01 459.48 0.07
7 0.8032 8164.98 0.15 390.24 0.01
8 0.8193 8017.71 -0.08 376.35 -0.01
9 0.8903 6907.81 -0.01 331.45 0.06
10 0.8905 6904.48 -0.01 331.23 -0.11
11 0.9722 4985.97 0.00 325.44 0.12
12 0.9723 4983.02 0.04 325.41 0.04
13 0.9724 4980.05 0.06 325.45 0.04
14 0.9809 4764.18 -0.06 328.23 0.09
15 1.0517 3021.70 0.05 375.53 -0.08
16 1.0707 2608.13 0.04 395.48 0.04
17 1.0708 2604.72 0.03 395.68 0.04
18 1.1228 1688.67 -0.07 462.90 0.10
19 1.1255 1651.92 -0.32 466.46 -0.18
20 1.1391 1481.59 0.10 486.70 -0.27
21 1.2184 1129.06 -0.01 616.38 0.10
22 1.2321 1185.03 -0.09 639.30 -0.07
23 1.8052 12377.95 -0.06 721.29 0.09
24 1.8599 11722.41 0.05 681.73 0.01
25 1.8977 11023.21 0.09 664.34 -0.05
26 1.8979 11019.64 -0.10 664.36 -0.00
27 1.9445 9957.40 -0.03 657.72 0.10
28 1.9638 9478.42 -0.15 660.11 0.04
29 2.1140 6060.10 0.13 784.51 0.02
30 2.1166 6019.19 0.16 787.95 -0.13
31 2.1276 5858.68 -0.01 803.47 -0.01
32 2.1930 5315.97 0.03 904.66 -0.01
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15VN173 quality flag:3 Type: CLASSICAL CLASSICAL CLASSICAL axisobj 43.070 43.078 43.062 ecceobj 0.043 0.043 0.043 incobj 5.276 5.276 5.276 qmin 40.056 40.113 40.088 qmax 45.686 45.656 45.638 amean 42.775 42.783 42.768 amin 42.445 42.451 42.440 amax 43.123 43.122 43.104 emean 0.039 0.039 0.039 emin 0.019 0.019 0.018 emax 0.060 0.059 0.059 imean 3.142 3.148 3.138 imin 2.190 2.200 2.182 imax 4.241 4.243 4.242 excite_mean 0.068 0.068 0.068 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 3.082 3.082 3.082 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 183.4 183.0 183.8 kozaiamp 180.0 180.0 180.0