The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15VO202 # Created Sun Dec 22 02:10:38 2024 # Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism # Fitting 31 observations of 32 # Arc: 2.27y # First observation: 2015/09/07 # Last observation: 2017/12/13 Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: -0.000119 0.021634 -0.000007 0.000423 0.023912 0.000000 # Chi-squared of fit: 17.10 DOF: 56 RMS: 0.13 # Min/Max residuals: -0.66 0.24 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 1.415310E-05 2.157771E-02 -3.679063E-07 4.198406E-04 2.395090E-02 5.735563E-03 # Covariance matrix: 2.1188E-13 -1.1570E-13 2.6791E-15 -1.8837E-16 1.2566E-13 -2.0514E-13 -1.1570E-13 5.1594E-13 4.0649E-16 4.7966E-15 1.5735E-13 1.4156E-11 2.6791E-15 4.0649E-16 1.0385E-13 -8.2222E-14 3.7415E-15 3.9962E-14 -1.8837E-16 4.7966E-15 -8.2222E-14 1.1899E-13 2.1862E-15 1.7306E-13 1.2566E-13 1.5735E-13 3.7415E-15 2.1862E-15 2.4568E-13 6.9146E-12 -2.0514E-13 1.4156E-11 3.9962E-14 1.7306E-13 6.9146E-12 5.1402E-10 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 -3.179753 52.603245 0.937757 -0.020816 -0.377368 2457273.125689 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2457270.5000 = 2015/09/05 Mean Anomaly: 94.52342 +/- 0.177 Argument of Peri: 167.16398 +/- 0.122 Long of Asc Node: 123.29231 +/- 0.015 Inclination: 3.31318 +/- 0.000 Eccentricity: 0.24442428 +/- 0.0008 Semi-Major Axis: 39.19821272 +/- 0.0177 Time of Perihelion: 2433734.3875 +/- 41.0 Perihelion: 29.61721784 +/- 0.0326 Aphelion: 48.77920760 +/- 0.0370 Period (y) 245.4187 +/- 0.17 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X 26.28878473 +/- 0.0005 Ecliptic Y 32.84929204 +/- 0.0007 Ecliptic Z -2.31594095 +/- 0.0001 Ecliptic XDOT -0.00156224 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic YDOT 0.00201379 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic ZDOT 0.00001160 +/- 0.0000 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 42.13715430 +/- 0.0006 Geocenter to KBO 41.75209097 +/- 0.0009 # Hcoef: 8.54
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15VO202. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15VO202) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2015 09 07.62490 03 24 08.958 +15 20 43.09 24.9w 15VO202 568 C~4nAh 2015 09 12.48855 03 24 01.613 +15 19 55.29 24.9w 15VO202 568 C~4nAh 2015 10 07.53269 03 22 52.670 +15 14 08.83 24.8w 15VO202 568 C~4nAh 2015 10 07.59208 03 22 52.442 +15 14 07.89 24.8w 15VO202 568 C~4nAh 2015 10 09.57195 03 22 45.024 +15 13 34.41 24.8w 15VO202 568 C~4nAh 2015 11 06.34408 03 20 41.025 +15 04 59.34 24.4r 15VO202 568 C~4nAh 2015 11 06.41470 03 20 40.676 +15 04 57.78 25.2r 15VO202 568 C~4nAh 2015 11 06.48426 03 20 40.317 +15 04 56.79 24.8r 15VO202 568 C~4nAh 2015 11 07.50182 03 20 35.311 +15 04 37.28 25.2w 15VO202 568 C~4nAh 2015 11 17.48361 03 19 45.645 +15 01 28.26 24.8w 15VO202 568 C~4nAh 2015 11 17.57138 03 19 45.188 +15 01 26.50 25.5w 15VO202 568 C~4nAh 2015 12 06.34926 03 18 14.585 +14 56 03.14 25.5w 15VO202 568 C~4nAh 2015 12 06.48675 03 18 13.958 +14 56 00.97 24.9w 15VO202 568 C~4nAh 2015 12 31.37031 03 16 36.980 +14 51 01.53 24.9w 15VO202 568 C~4nAh 2016 01 07.39971 03 16 17.257 +14 50 13.71 25.1w 15VO202 568 C~4nAh 2016 02 05.29926 03 15 42.737 +14 50 16.48 24.5w 15VO202 568 C~4nAh 2016 02 11.25262 03 15 45.626 +14 50 58.18 25.2w 15VO202 568 C~4nAh 2016 09 07.58521 03 29 02.885 +15 40 14.88 25.1w 15VO202 568 C~4nAh 2016 09 27.51883 03 28 20.683 +15 36 25.59 25.2w 15VO202 568 C~4nAh 2016 09 29.49637 03 28 14.737 +15 35 57.08 24.3w 15VO202 568 C~4nAh 2016 10 05.49953 03 27 54.899 +15 34 26.27 25.2w 15VO202 568 C~4nAh 2016 10 07.50403 03 27 47.744 +15 33 54.78 25.3w 15VO202 568 C~4nAh 2016 10 07.59973 03 27 47.353 +15 33 52.84 25.0w 15VO202 568 C~4nAh 2016 10 09.50422 03 27 40.290 +15 33 22.11 25.2w 15VO202 568 C~4nAh 2016 10 09.57681 03 27 40.026 +15 33 20.04 15VO202 568 C~4nAh 2016 10 10.54805 03 27 36.330 +15 33 04.65 15VO202 568 C~4nAh 2016 10 10.59680 03 27 36.144 +15 33 03.81 25.1w 15VO202 568 C~4nAh 2016 11 02.49102 03 25 55.334 +15 26 13.60 24.8w 15VO202 568 C~4nAh 2016 11 04.46713 03 25 45.750 +15 25 36.71 24.9w 15VO202 568 C~4nAh 2017 09 16.59057 03 33 41.773 +15 57 52.94 25.1w 15VO202 568 C~4nAh 2017 09 23.53642 03 33 26.365 +15 56 32.90 25.3w 15VO202 568 C~4nAh 2017 12 13.36708 03 27 36.294 +15 34 35.65 24.9w 15VO202 568 C~4nAh
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.13
2 0.0133 -114.84 -0.04 -19.65 0.01
3 0.0819 -1167.47 0.07 -104.31 0.02
4 0.0820 -1170.90 0.02 -104.39 0.09
5 0.0875 -1283.24 -0.14 -109.74 -0.02
6 0.1635 -3150.68 0.01 -153.43 -0.11
7 0.1637 -3155.97 0.02 -153.66 -0.33
8 0.1639 -3161.25 -0.05 -153.29 0.05
9 0.1667 -3236.35 0.10 -153.72 0.04
10 0.1940 -3980.43 0.10 -153.10 0.16
11 0.1942 -3987.28 -0.12 -153.11 0.11
12 0.2457 -5339.87 -0.06 -129.33 0.13
13 0.2460 -5349.22 0.09 -129.09 0.06
14 0.3142 -6785.94 -0.01 -55.80 -0.02
15 0.3334 -7074.87 -0.02 -27.91 0.15
16 0.4125 -7558.15 0.07 104.72 -0.22
17 0.4288 -7506.80 -0.05 134.13 0.05
18 1.0019 4406.91 0.08 82.71 0.08
19 1.0565 3759.44 -0.01 9.99 0.07
20 1.0619 3669.13 0.05 3.47 -0.21
21 1.0784 3368.88 0.03 -14.01 -0.11
22 1.0839 3260.90 ( 0.45) -19.06 ( 0.23)
23 1.0841 3254.94 -0.12 -19.55 -0.03
24 1.0893 3148.43 -0.06 -24.18 0.24
25 1.0895 3144.22 -0.05 -25.24 -0.66
26 1.0922 3088.65 0.10 -26.99 -0.00
27 1.0923 3085.84 0.17 -27.14 -0.04
28 1.1550 1572.25 -0.12 -63.81 0.04
29 1.1604 1428.85 -0.09 -65.09 0.02
30 2.0259 8572.51 -0.09 134.04 0.09
31 2.0449 8337.18 0.05 109.59 0.14
32 2.2662 3110.60 0.05 61.34 0.08
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15VO202 quality flag:3 Type: 3:2E 3:2E 3:2E axisobj 39.586 39.638 39.535 ecceobj 0.246 0.247 0.244 incobj 3.314 3.314 3.314 qmin 29.022 28.930 29.017 qmax 50.565 50.391 50.682 amean 39.455 39.455 39.456 amin 39.019 39.045 38.935 amax 39.988 39.933 40.072 emean 0.247 0.238 0.250 emin 0.230 0.210 0.235 emax 0.266 0.264 0.266 imean 3.078 4.683 1.910 imin 1.746 1.769 1.414 imax 5.005 7.498 2.541 excite_mean 0.253 0.254 0.252 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 2.978 2.978 2.979 libcent 0 179.9 180.0 180.0 libamp 0 82.7 57.7 103.6 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 162.0 144.4 200.1 kozaiamp 44.1 180.0 180.0