Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15VP169

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15VP169   
# Created Tue Apr  1 01:10:40 2025
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting     23 observations of     24
# Arc:   1.44y
# First observation: 2015/08/20
#  Last observation: 2017/01/27
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  -0.000106   0.020929   0.000001   0.001303   0.022662   0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit:     5.27 DOF:     40 RMS:  0.08
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.32    0.25
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.509410E-05  2.061232E-02  1.020444E-06  1.287286E-03  2.246836E-02  1.265331E-03
# Covariance matrix:
  3.7829E-13  5.6024E-14 -7.4455E-15  3.5170E-14  4.0101E-13  1.8583E-11
  5.6024E-14  5.9235E-13 -1.1351E-14  5.6645E-14  4.7969E-13  2.9842E-11
 -7.4455E-15 -1.1351E-14  1.6099E-13 -1.6291E-13 -1.6502E-14 -1.0299E-12
  3.5170E-14  5.6645E-14 -1.6291E-13  2.7307E-13  8.0095E-14  5.1684E-12
  4.0101E-13  4.7969E-13 -1.6502E-14  8.0095E-14  7.9542E-13  4.2257E-11
  1.8583E-11  2.9842E-11 -1.0299E-12  5.1684E-12  4.2257E-11  2.7220E-09
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
    0.341065   54.722136    1.013710    0.000384   -0.042570  2457255.041279
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2457250.5000  =  2015/08/16
Mean Anomaly:          138.97626 +/-     1.967
Argument of Peri:      222.35781 +/-     1.959
Long of Asc Node:       47.99633 +/-     0.002
Inclination:             3.59869 +/-     0.001
Eccentricity:         0.05734868 +/-    0.0014
Semi-Major Axis:     42.65594657 +/-    0.0086
Time of Perihelion: 2417967.3853 +/-     555.8
Perihelion:          40.20968447 +/-    0.0602
Aphelion:            45.10220867 +/-    0.0604
Period (y)              278.5977 +/-      0.08
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X           26.55229004 +/-    0.0010
Ecliptic Y           35.78231604 +/-    0.0014
Ecliptic Z            0.26500590 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00196393 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT         0.00156934 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT         0.00015783 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   44.55859598 +/-    0.0013
Geocenter to KBO     44.50703384 +/-    0.0018
# Hcoef:  8.16

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15VP169. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15VP169) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2015 08  20.54049  03 29 06.442  +19 16 48.10  25.0w 15VP169   568  C~2nw2      
2015 09  07.59637  03 29 00.621  +19 16 49.76  25.0w 15VP169   568  C~2nw2      
2015 09  12.44325  03 28 54.096  +19 16 32.39  25.2w 15VP169   568  C~2nw2      
2015 10  07.55020  03 27 49.680  +19 13 11.70  25.0w 15VP169   568  C~2nw2      
2015 11  06.30734  03 25 44.164  +19 06 08.48  24.7r 15VP169   568  C~2nw2      
2015 11  06.37060  03 25 43.874  +19 06 07.55  24.5r 15VP169   568  C~2nw2      
2015 11  06.44142  03 25 43.520  +19 06 06.23  24.5r 15VP169   568  C~2nw2      
2015 11  07.46098  03 25 38.671  +19 05 49.68  24.6w 15VP169   568  C~2nw2      
2015 11  17.48946  03 24 50.459  +19 03 02.42  24.5w 15VP169   568  C~2nw2      
2015 12  06.30809  03 23 22.128  +18 57 51.00  24.7w 15VP169   568  C~2nw2      
2015 12  06.43481  03 23 21.591  +18 57 48.97  25.1w 15VP169   568  C~2nw2      
2015 12  31.32982  03 21 45.820  +18 52 06.36  25.0w 15VP169   568  C~2nw2      
2016 01  07.35914  03 21 26.017  +18 50 55.14  24.9w 15VP169   568  C~2nw2      
2016 02  05.30505  03 20 49.158  +18 48 44.87  23.6w 15VP169   568  C~2nw2      
2016 02  11.25843  03 20 51.257  +18 48 53.89  25.1w 15VP169   568  C~2nw2      
2016 09  07.61990  03 33 48.321  +19 38 12.55        15VP169   568  C~2nw2      
2016 09  25.62935  03 33 14.543  +19 36 39.18  25.0w 15VP169   568  C~2nw2      
2016 09  27.54346  03 33 09.400  +19 36 23.76  25.4w 15VP169   568  C~2nw2      
2016 10  10.56895  03 32 27.420  +19 34 13.66  24.9w 15VP169   568  C~2nw2      
2016 10  10.61736  03 32 27.234  +19 34 13.01  24.7w 15VP169   568  C~2nw2      
2016 11  02.46775  03 30 50.756  +19 28 59.75  25.1w 15VP169   568  C~2nw2      
2016 11  04.44390  03 30 41.517  +19 28 29.00  24.8w 15VP169   568  C~2nw2      
2016 12  29.39711  03 26 38.972  +19 14 37.84  25.3w 15VP169   568  C~2nw2      
2017 01  27.32921  03 25 38.227  +19 11 03.92  24.7w 15VP169   568  C~2nw2      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

     1   0.0000      0.00    -0.12       0.00    -0.02
     2   0.0494    -79.53     0.07      21.67     0.03
     3   0.0627   -173.37     0.07      27.33     0.01
     4   0.1314  -1106.99    -0.03      55.70    -0.01
     5   0.2129  -2935.06     0.05      84.15    -0.07
     6   0.2131  -2939.27     0.25      84.27    -0.03
     7   0.2133  -2944.46     0.03      84.24    -0.15
     8   0.2161  -3015.16    -0.05      85.26     0.01
     9   0.2435  -3718.95    -0.32      93.28     0.14
    10   0.2951  -5010.33    -0.02     105.36     0.00
    11   0.2954  -5018.21 (   0.51)    105.31 (  -0.16)
    12   0.3636  -6420.75     0.04     116.87     0.00
    13   0.3828  -6711.02     0.03     119.31     0.05
    14   0.4621  -7250.86     0.00     126.46     0.03
    15   0.4784  -7219.70     0.02     127.59     0.00
    16   1.0516   4179.02     0.01     289.80     0.05
    17   1.1009   3693.07     0.11     312.27     0.08
    18   1.1061   3618.79    -0.01     314.56     0.09
    19   1.1418   3011.47     0.00     329.49     0.00
    20   1.1419   3008.76    -0.09     329.49    -0.06
    21   1.2045   1609.31    -0.11     352.44     0.01
    22   1.2099   1475.09     0.09     354.09    -0.07
    23   1.3603  -2056.52    -0.02     385.55    -0.08
    24   1.4395  -2943.25     0.01     391.26    -0.01

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15VP169    quality flag:3

Type:      CLASSICAL CLASSICAL CLASSICAL

axisobj        43.041    43.076    43.009
ecceobj         0.055     0.059     0.051
incobj          3.583     3.583     3.583
qmin           39.712    39.557    39.827
qmax           45.939    46.190    45.768
amean          42.736    42.772    42.704
amin           42.408    42.437    42.370
amax           43.075    43.124    43.051
emean           0.047     0.051     0.043
emin            0.023     0.027     0.020
emax            0.067     0.071     0.064
imean           2.021     1.997     2.035
imin            0.663     0.610     0.684
imax            3.124     3.131     3.119
excite_mean     0.060     0.063     0.057
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          3.082     3.082     3.082

libcent 0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       195.1     195.0     194.9
kozaiamp        180.0     180.0     179.9