The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15VP172 # Created Tue Apr 1 01:10:42 2025 # Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism # Fitting 39 observations of 39 # Arc: 3.07y # First observation: 2014/11/17 # Last observation: 2017/12/13 Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 0.000035 0.017441 -0.000002 -0.001056 0.020493 0.000000 # Chi-squared of fit: 4.42 DOF: 72 RMS: 0.06 # Min/Max residuals: -0.24 0.16 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 1.311102E-05 1.760159E-02 -4.310436E-07 -1.066496E-03 2.072069E-02 2.029760E-03 # Covariance matrix: 2.4428E-13 -2.6757E-13 -5.3741E-15 1.1205E-14 -1.2884E-13 -3.6497E-12 -2.6757E-13 4.2511E-13 1.0400E-14 -2.1640E-14 2.2043E-13 7.0524E-12 -5.3741E-15 1.0400E-14 1.4365E-13 -7.6554E-14 6.1246E-15 1.9808E-13 1.1205E-14 -2.1640E-14 -7.6554E-14 5.6095E-14 -1.2937E-14 -4.1215E-13 -1.2884E-13 2.2043E-13 6.1246E-15 -1.2937E-14 2.5573E-13 4.1988E-12 -3.6497E-12 7.0524E-12 1.9808E-13 -4.1215E-13 4.1988E-12 1.3432E-10 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 -0.219504 48.917450 -0.095660 -0.003626 -0.984833 2456978.782278 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2456970.5000 = 2014/11/09 Mean Anomaly: 120.46032 +/- 0.178 Argument of Peri: 50.33940 +/- 0.168 Long of Asc Node: 225.48517 +/- 0.001 Inclination: 3.47304 +/- 0.001 Eccentricity: 0.14165179 +/- 0.0004 Semi-Major Axis: 45.37903584 +/- 0.0061 Time of Perihelion: 2419609.1256 +/- 54.7 Perihelion: 38.95101414 +/- 0.0199 Aphelion: 51.80705754 +/- 0.0204 Period (y) 305.6969 +/- 0.06 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X 32.28617935 +/- 0.0008 Ecliptic Y 37.18376549 +/- 0.0009 Ecliptic Z -0.18492552 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic XDOT -0.00158143 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic YDOT 0.00172512 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic ZDOT -0.00014184 +/- 0.0000 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 49.24493872 +/- 0.0008 Geocenter to KBO 48.26093489 +/- 0.0012 # Hcoef: 7.34
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15VP172. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15VP172) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2014 11 17.28150 03 06 05.960 +17 14 10.59 23.8r 15VP172 568 C~2nwD 2014 11 17.39021 03 06 05.482 +17 14 08.73 24.2r 15VP172 568 C~2nwD 2014 11 17.50402 03 06 04.978 +17 14 06.65 24.1r 15VP172 568 C~2nwD 2014 11 19.29385 03 05 57.357 +17 13 34.41 24.2r 15VP172 568 C~2nwD 2014 11 23.39737 03 05 39.978 +17 12 21.11 24.1r 15VP172 568 C~2nwD 2015 08 11.57225 03 14 16.423 +17 44 19.85 24.4w 15VP172 568 C~2nwD 2015 09 06.61892 03 14 10.771 +17 43 33.55 24.6w 15VP172 568 C~2nwD 2015 09 12.50905 03 14 02.072 +17 42 54.03 24.4w 15VP172 568 C~2nwD 2015 10 07.43408 03 12 58.427 +17 38 22.91 24.6w 15VP172 568 C~2nwD 2015 10 08.44583 03 12 55.047 +17 38 08.93 23.8w 15VP172 568 C~2nwD 2015 11 07.35377 03 10 57.386 +17 30 01.96 24.0r 15VP172 568 C~2nwD 2015 11 07.39585 03 10 57.196 +17 30 01.22 24.2r 15VP172 568 C~2nwD 2015 11 07.43803 03 10 57.015 +17 30 00.48 24.0r 15VP172 568 C~2nwD 2015 11 10.52298 03 10 43.715 +17 29 05.79 24.5w 15VP172 568 C~2nwD 2015 11 17.36965 03 10 14.208 +17 27 03.91 24.4w 15VP172 568 C~2nwD 2015 11 17.41626 03 10 14.003 +17 27 03.14 24.7w 15VP172 568 C~2nwD 2015 12 06.37850 03 08 55.649 +17 21 39.58 24.3w 15VP172 568 C~2nwD 2015 12 13.31287 03 08 29.749 +17 19 52.34 24.7w 15VP172 568 C~2nwD 2015 12 13.37141 03 08 29.526 +17 19 51.45 24.6w 15VP172 568 C~2nwD 2016 01 01.36607 03 07 31.410 +17 15 49.93 24.3w 15VP172 568 C~2nwD 2016 01 07.31283 03 07 17.964 +17 14 53.62 24.7w 15VP172 568 C~2nwD 2016 02 04.28927 03 06 51.951 +17 13 00.87 24.3w 15VP172 568 C~2nwD 2016 09 06.61138 03 18 13.989 +17 55 27.46 15VP172 568 C~2nwD 2016 09 26.60062 03 17 34.494 +17 52 37.25 24.7w 15VP172 568 C~2nwD 2016 10 10.40808 03 16 51.972 +17 49 41.86 24.6w 15VP172 568 C~2nwD 2016 10 10.46643 03 16 51.765 +17 49 41.05 24.4w 15VP172 568 C~2nwD 2016 10 27.49100 03 15 46.838 +17 45 17.22 24.3w 15VP172 568 C~2nwD 2016 10 27.50259 03 15 46.788 +17 45 17.00 24.2w 15VP172 568 C~2nwD 2016 11 02.59707 03 15 21.338 +17 43 34.11 24.6w 15VP172 568 C~2nwD 2016 11 02.60863 03 15 21.284 +17 43 33.86 24.8w 15VP172 568 C~2nwD 2016 11 03.51606 03 15 17.440 +17 43 18.37 24.6w 15VP172 568 C~2nwD 2016 11 03.52763 03 15 17.389 +17 43 18.21 24.5w 15VP172 568 C~2nwD 2016 12 29.37514 03 11 42.084 +17 28 48.55 24.8w 15VP172 568 C~2nwD 2017 01 02.38235 03 11 31.825 +17 28 06.86 24.6w 15VP172 568 C~2nwD 2017 01 26.27742 03 10 55.635 +17 25 38.46 24.5w 15VP172 568 C~2nwE 2017 09 16.61554 03 22 02.428 +18 05 56.65 24.7w 15VP172 568 C~2nwE 2017 09 23.55460 03 21 47.524 +18 04 54.02 24.4w 15VP172 568 C~2nwE 2017 12 13.37637 03 16 39.102 +17 44 28.37 24.6w 15VP172 568 C~2nwE 2017 12 13.41395 03 16 38.967 +17 44 27.80 24.5w 15VP172 568 C~2nwE
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 0.07 0.00 -0.08
2 0.0003 -7.10 0.02 0.09 0.03
3 0.0006 -14.61 -0.10 0.06 0.04
4 0.0055 -128.45 0.05 -1.05 -0.01
5 0.0167 -388.01 -0.01 -3.31 -0.07
6 0.7318 7247.96 -0.24 -141.69 -0.04
7 0.8031 7157.75 -0.11 -165.10 0.09
8 0.8192 7027.28 0.07 -170.46 -0.03
9 0.8875 6077.41 0.03 -191.48 -0.09
10 0.8903 6027.08 0.04 -192.15 0.03
11 0.9721 4274.46 0.16 -213.35 0.02
12 0.9723 4271.64 0.07 -213.34 0.04
13 0.9724 4268.94 0.12 -213.36 0.04
14 0.9808 4070.89 -0.07 -215.10 0.15
15 0.9996 3631.32 0.02 -219.28 -0.02
16 0.9997 3628.29 0.01 -219.24 0.03
17 1.0516 2460.84 -0.01 -228.77 -0.02
18 1.0706 2074.78 0.06 -231.73 -0.05
19 1.0707 2071.46 -0.07 -231.73 -0.04
20 1.1228 1204.78 -0.05 -238.37 0.02
21 1.1390 1004.11 -0.11 -240.15 -0.01
22 1.2156 614.80 -0.04 -247.09 -0.02
23 1.8051 10703.59 0.08 -382.31 0.06
24 1.8599 10113.50 0.01 -400.88 -0.02
25 1.8977 9480.24 0.05 -412.64 -0.00
26 1.8978 9477.17 0.03 -412.65 0.01
27 1.9444 8511.29 -0.01 -425.52 0.02
28 1.9445 8510.54 -0.04 -425.55 0.00
29 1.9612 8132.07 0.03 -429.68 -0.01
30 1.9612 8131.26 -0.04 -429.72 -0.04
31 1.9637 8074.11 -0.01 -430.27 -0.01
32 1.9637 8073.36 -0.02 -430.23 0.04
33 2.1166 4871.38 0.09 -454.99 0.01
34 2.1276 4718.71 -0.03 -456.01 -0.01
35 2.1930 4179.76 0.04 -460.59 -0.01
36 2.8319 14026.77 -0.03 -608.26 -0.02
37 2.8509 13804.32 0.01 -614.97 0.01
38 3.0721 9220.66 -0.06 -667.75 0.00
39 3.0722 9218.64 0.01 -667.80 -0.04
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15VP172 quality flag:3 Type: CLASSICAL CLASSICAL CLASSICAL axisobj 45.729 45.747 45.710 ecceobj 0.141 0.142 0.140 incobj 3.460 3.460 3.460 qmin 38.216 38.147 38.199 qmax 52.939 53.021 52.907 amean 45.410 45.427 45.393 amin 45.022 45.045 45.011 amax 45.838 45.855 45.824 emean 0.141 0.142 0.140 emin 0.126 0.127 0.124 emax 0.156 0.158 0.156 imean 5.046 5.056 5.039 imin 4.360 4.364 4.353 imax 5.829 5.852 5.790 excite_mean 0.167 0.167 0.166 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 3.085 3.084 3.085 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 181.8 180.9 182.0 kozaiamp 180.0 180.0 180.0