The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15VP202 # Created Tue Apr 1 01:10:43 2025 # Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism # Fitting 27 observations of 27 # Arc: 2.32y # First observation: 2015/08/20 # Last observation: 2017/12/13 Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: -0.000119 0.028447 -0.000009 0.000318 0.025476 0.000000 # Chi-squared of fit: 8.17 DOF: 48 RMS: 0.10 # Min/Max residuals: -0.28 0.22 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 1.750157E-05 2.813512E-02 2.347170E-07 3.111031E-04 2.529724E-02 3.844447E-03 # Covariance matrix: 2.0239E-13 -9.6977E-14 3.2760E-15 2.0602E-17 1.0739E-13 -1.1987E-13 -9.6977E-14 7.2762E-13 5.7644E-15 -1.7197E-15 2.6699E-13 1.4570E-11 3.2760E-15 5.7644E-15 1.0863E-13 -8.1655E-14 6.7079E-15 1.4733E-13 2.0602E-17 -1.7197E-15 -8.1655E-14 1.2017E-13 -7.8368E-16 -4.1308E-14 1.0739E-13 2.6699E-13 6.7079E-15 -7.8368E-16 2.5659E-13 6.7062E-12 -1.1987E-13 1.4570E-11 1.4733E-13 -4.1308E-14 6.7062E-12 3.5011E-10 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 -2.801427 53.362011 1.012381 -0.003143 -0.066938 2457255.064109 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2457250.5000 = 2015/08/16 Mean Anomaly: 15.74232 +/- 0.071 Argument of Peri: 252.45228 +/- 0.143 Long of Asc Node: 130.66145 +/- 0.014 Inclination: 2.85049 +/- 0.000 Eccentricity: 0.28190302 +/- 0.0005 Semi-Major Axis: 53.65831414 +/- 0.0173 Time of Perihelion: 2450972.5155 +/- 28.1 Perihelion: 38.53187333 +/- 0.0273 Aphelion: 68.78475495 +/- 0.0329 Period (y) 393.0644 +/- 0.19 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X 24.40986845 +/- 0.0005 Ecliptic Y 31.13135802 +/- 0.0006 Ecliptic Z -1.93198335 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic XDOT -0.00219638 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic YDOT 0.00214554 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic ZDOT 0.00001335 +/- 0.0000 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 39.60726814 +/- 0.0006 Geocenter to KBO 39.53000393 +/- 0.0008 # Hcoef: 8.80
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15VP202. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15VP202) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2015 08 20.56332 03 26 48.414 +15 54 00.61 24.8w 15VP202 568 C~4nAh 2015 09 07.60859 03 26 44.497 +15 52 30.47 25.1w 15VP202 568 C~4nAh 2015 09 12.45964 03 26 37.982 +15 51 47.29 25.3w 15VP202 568 C~4nAh 2015 10 07.50935 03 25 30.854 +15 46 14.75 15VP202 568 C~4nAh 2015 10 07.56783 03 25 30.636 +15 46 13.79 25.1w 15VP202 568 C~4nAh 2015 10 09.54866 03 25 23.201 +15 45 40.96 25.1w 15VP202 568 C~4nAh 2015 11 06.32308 03 23 17.114 +15 37 05.81 24.5r 15VP202 568 C~4nAh 2015 11 06.38643 03 23 16.803 +15 37 04.62 24.6r 15VP202 568 C~4nAh 2015 11 06.45719 03 23 16.445 +15 37 03.53 25.0r 15VP202 568 C~4nAh 2015 11 07.47849 03 23 11.267 +15 36 43.60 24.8w 15VP202 568 C~4nAh 2015 11 17.54796 03 22 19.809 +15 33 29.50 24.6w 15VP202 568 C~4nAh 2015 12 06.32589 03 20 46.483 +15 27 58.34 24.8w 15VP202 568 C~4nAh 2015 12 06.45961 03 20 45.852 +15 27 56.37 24.9w 15VP202 568 C~4nAh 2016 01 07.37652 03 18 46.191 +15 21 55.96 24.5w 15VP202 568 C~4nAh 2016 01 08.23883 03 18 44.037 +15 21 51.08 25.1w 15VP202 568 C~4nAh 2016 02 05.32968 03 18 13.285 +15 21 58.17 25.3w 15VP202 568 C~4nAh 2016 02 11.27580 03 18 17.179 +15 22 41.35 25.4w 15VP202 568 C~4nAh 2016 09 07.60834 03 33 14.247 +16 17 01.64 25.0w 15VP202 568 C~4nAh 2016 09 27.53529 03 32 35.024 +16 13 29.78 25.8w 15VP202 568 C~4nAh 2016 10 07.52743 03 32 02.506 +16 11 03.92 15VP202 568 C~4nAh 2016 10 07.53507 03 32 02.462 +16 11 04.10 25.3w 15VP202 568 C~4nAh 2016 10 07.62286 03 32 02.128 +16 11 02.70 24.6w 15VP202 568 C~4nAh 2016 10 09.52781 03 31 55.091 +16 10 32.44 24.8w 15VP202 568 C~4nAh 2016 12 24.35153 03 26 00.984 +15 49 30.37 24.9w 15VP202 568 C~4nAh 2017 09 15.62132 03 39 33.485 +16 39 39.23 25.1w 15VP202 568 C~4nAh 2017 09 22.59895 03 39 19.815 +16 38 27.68 25.2w 15VP202 568 C~4nAh 2017 12 13.35764 03 33 20.898 +16 16 37.57 25.1w 15VP202 568 C~4nAh
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 0.02 0.00 -0.01
2 0.0494 -77.01 -0.04 -73.40 -0.06
3 0.0627 -178.77 -0.01 -92.03 0.06
4 0.1313 -1199.75 0.01 -174.27 -0.00
5 0.1314 -1203.04 0.05 -174.42 -0.01
6 0.1369 -1315.16 -0.10 -179.56 -0.01
7 0.2129 -3207.19 -0.21 -223.82 -0.07
8 0.2131 -3211.84 -0.02 -223.85 -0.09
9 0.2133 -3217.12 0.13 -223.60 0.16
10 0.2161 -3294.55 -0.11 -224.13 0.15
11 0.2436 -4063.21 0.07 -225.04 -0.17
12 0.2950 -5452.75 0.04 -204.41 0.02
13 0.2954 -5462.08 0.22 -204.00 0.14
14 0.3828 -7228.82 0.04 -111.52 -0.06
15 0.3851 -7260.22 -0.04 -108.26 -0.07
16 0.4621 -7688.90 0.08 12.67 -0.00
17 0.4783 -7623.30 -0.16 39.97 0.07
18 1.0515 5731.09 -0.08 -12.01 0.02
19 1.1060 5131.53 0.18 -82.34 0.10
20 1.1334 4641.54 0.14 -111.34 -0.28
21 1.1334 4640.97 -0.01 -111.01 0.07
22 1.1336 4635.96 -0.11 -111.22 0.08
23 1.1388 4530.23 0.02 -116.18 -0.06
24 1.3464 -729.93 -0.07 -92.62 0.02
25 2.0727 11362.44 -0.07 22.82 -0.09
26 2.0918 11154.13 0.04 -1.28 0.01
27 2.3157 5818.39 -0.01 -58.30 0.09
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15VP202 quality flag:3 Type: SCATNEAR SCATNEAR SCATNEAR axisobj 54.444 54.507 54.382 ecceobj 0.293 0.294 0.291 incobj 2.850 2.850 2.850 qmin 37.771 37.695 37.803 qmax 70.564 70.785 70.427 amean 53.789 53.845 53.721 amin 53.237 53.283 53.176 amax 54.461 54.520 54.392 emean 0.285 0.287 0.283 emin 0.274 0.275 0.273 emax 0.296 0.298 0.295 imean 1.797 1.814 1.791 imin 1.426 1.422 1.428 imax 2.186 2.216 2.155 excite_mean 0.287 0.288 0.285 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 3.121 3.120 3.121 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 167.5 174.4 165.0 kozaiamp 179.9 179.9 180.0