Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15VR172

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15VR172   
# Created Tue Apr  1 01:10:42 2025
# Orbit generated by ELGB
# -->Covariance matrix from a Bernstein fit
# Fitting     54 observations of     54
# Arc:   9.96y
# First observation: 2014/11/17
#  Last observation: 2024/11/01
# Chi-squared of fit:     7.82 DOF:    102 RMS:  0.07
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.27    0.16
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.460811E-05  2.043596E-02  7.147943E-07  4.825058E-04  2.220700E-02 -6.803795E-04
# Covariance matrix:
  1.3617E-13 -9.0866E-14  2.0089E-15 -1.8357E-15 -1.3677E-14 -3.6829E-13
 -9.0866E-14  7.8891E-14 -1.8157E-15  1.6774E-15  6.6090E-15  3.3681E-13
  2.0089E-15 -1.8157E-15  4.8665E-14 -1.1137E-14 -5.1493E-16 -8.4080E-15
 -1.8357E-15  1.6774E-15 -1.1137E-14  5.8180E-15  2.1990E-16  7.7361E-15
 -1.3677E-14  6.6090E-15 -5.1493E-16  2.1990E-16  8.1863E-14  4.0551E-14
 -3.6829E-13  3.3681E-13 -8.4080E-15  7.7361E-15  4.0551E-14  1.5529E-12
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
   -0.854368   48.900388   -0.095953   -0.014538   -0.984704  2456978.782278
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2456978.5000  =  2014/11/17
Mean Anomaly:          253.68764 +/-     0.066
Argument of Peri:       78.48274 +/-     0.060
Long of Asc Node:       80.69387 +/-     0.004
Inclination:             1.59216 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.03547845 +/-    0.0001
Semi-Major Axis:     45.50930351 +/-    0.0024
Time of Perihelion: 2490093.8972 +/-      21.5
Perihelion:          43.89470380 +/-    0.0038
Aphelion:            47.12390322 +/-    0.0039
Period (y)              307.0142 +/-      0.02
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X           30.17056754 +/-    0.0004
Ecliptic Y           34.73673788 +/-    0.0004
Ecliptic Z           -0.67143563 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00195744 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT         0.00158874 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT         0.00006083 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   46.01474717 +/-    0.0004
Geocenter to KBO     45.03089915 +/-    0.0006
# Hcoef:  6.87

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15VR172. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15VR172) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2014 11  17.28150  03 06 45.369  +16 37 15.30  23.2r 15VR172   568  C~2nwE      
2014 11  17.39021  03 06 44.870  +16 37 13.44  23.3r 15VR172   568  C~2nwE      
2014 11  17.50402  03 06 44.346  +16 37 11.32  23.2r 15VR172   568  C~2nwE      
2014 11  19.29385  03 06 36.256  +16 36 39.17  23.4r 15VR172   568  C~2nwE      
2014 11  23.39737  03 06 17.848  +16 35 26.13  23.4r 15VR172   568  C~2nwE      
2015 08  11.59273  03 15 40.157  +17 15 08.13  23.7w 15VR172   568  C~2nwE      
2015 09  06.62350  03 15 36.046  +17 14 31.02  23.7w 15VR172   568  C~2nwE      
2015 09  12.51312  03 15 27.174  +17 13 52.06  23.9w 15VR172   568  C~2nwE      
2015 10  07.43992  03 14 20.716  +17 09 18.59  23.7w 15VR172   568  C~2nwE      
2015 10  07.44703  03 14 20.691  +17 09 18.51  23.8w 15VR172   568  C~2nwE      
2015 10  08.45165  03 14 17.151  +17 09 04.28  23.6w 15VR172   568  C~2nwE      
2015 10  08.51072  03 14 16.936  +17 09 03.48  23.7w 15VR172   568  C~2nwE      
2015 11  07.35377  03 12 12.712  +17 00 51.45  23.4r 15VR172   568  C~2nwE      
2015 11  07.35903  03 12 12.689  +17 00 51.34  23.4r 15VR172   568  C~2nwE      
2015 11  07.39585  03 12 12.511  +17 00 50.64  23.4r 15VR172   568  C~2nwE      
2015 11  07.40112  03 12 12.491  +17 00 50.55  23.4r 15VR172   568  C~2nwE      
2015 11  07.43803  03 12 12.323  +17 00 49.99  23.4r 15VR172   568  C~2nwE      
2015 11  07.44330  03 12 12.293  +17 00 49.84  23.4r 15VR172   568  C~2nwE      
2015 11  10.52298  03 11 58.210  +16 59 54.68  23.6w 15VR172   568  C~2nwE      
2015 11  10.52886  03 11 58.176  +16 59 54.63  23.6w 15VR172   568  C~2nwE      
2015 11  17.37547  03 11 26.834  +16 57 52.44  23.6w 15VR172   568  C~2nwE      
2015 11  17.42215  03 11 26.616  +16 57 51.62  23.7w 15VR172   568  C~2nwE      
2015 12  06.37850  03 10 03.334  +16 52 30.64  23.7w 15VR172   568  C~2nwE      
2015 12  06.38432  03 10 03.314  +16 52 30.47        15VR172   568  C~2nwE      
2015 12  13.31874  03 09 35.751  +16 50 45.82  23.6w 15VR172   568  C~2nwE      
2015 12  13.37723  03 09 35.522  +16 50 45.00  23.8w 15VR172   568  C~2nwE      
2016 01  01.36607  03 08 33.738  +16 46 56.34  23.7w 15VR172   568  C~2nwE      
2016 01  01.37186  03 08 33.722  +16 46 56.33  23.7w 15VR172   568  C~2nwE      
2016 01  07.31862  03 08 19.457  +16 46 06.15  23.7w 15VR172   568  C~2nwE      
2016 02  04.29505  03 07 52.163  +16 44 53.59  23.7w 15VR172   568  C~2nwE      
2016 02  04.30157  03 07 52.149  +16 44 53.60  23.7w 15VR172   568  C~2nwE      
2016 02  10.28486  03 07 55.410  +16 45 15.33  23.8w 15VR172   568  C~2nwE      
2016 09  06.60560  03 20 14.270  +17 34 00.58  23.8w 15VR172   568  C~2nwE      
2016 09  26.59656  03 19 33.555  +17 31 13.66  23.8w 15VR172   568  C~2nwE      
2016 10  10.40230  03 18 48.909  +17 28 17.77  23.7w 15VR172   568  C~2nwE      
2016 10  10.46065  03 18 48.689  +17 28 17.00  23.6w 15VR172   568  C~2nwE      
2016 11  02.59707  03 17 12.878  +17 22 07.31  23.7w 15VR172   568  C~2nwE      
2016 11  03.51606  03 17 08.738  +17 21 51.43  23.6w 15VR172   568  C~2nwE      
2016 12  24.29598  03 13 34.425  +17 08 29.17  23.7w 15VR172   568  C~2nwE      
2016 12  24.31334  03 13 34.366  +17 08 28.98  23.8w 15VR172   568  C~2nwE      
2017 01  02.39822  03 13 07.898  +17 06 55.07  23.7w 15VR172   568  C~2nwE      
2017 01  02.41556  03 13 07.853  +17 06 54.90  23.7w 15VR172   568  C~2nwE      
2017 01  26.32908  03 12 29.263  +17 04 53.43  23.6w 15VR172   568  C~2nwE      
2017 09  16.61554  03 24 39.267  +17 52 07.73        15VR172   568  C~2nwE      
2017 09  17.60038  03 24 37.310  +17 51 59.90  23.8w 15VR172   568  C~2nwE      
2017 09  23.55460  03 24 23.875  +17 51 06.98        15VR172   568  C~2nwE      
2017 09  23.57901  03 24 23.811  +17 51 06.69        15VR172   568  C~2nwE      
2017 09  23.58734  03 24 23.783  +17 51 06.55  23.9w 15VR172   568  C~2nwE      
2017 09  24.59522  03 24 21.248  +17 50 56.80  23.7w 15VR172   568  C~2nwE      
2017 12  16.36856  03 18 44.267  +17 30 05.05  23.8w 15VR172   568  C~2nwE      
2017 12  16.39181  03 18 44.166  +17 30 04.65  23.8w 15VR172   568  C~2nwE      
2024 11  01.387810 03 55 47.014  +19 48 08.96  23.7G 15VR172   G37  C~8SY2      
2024 11  01.434810 03 55 46.810  +19 48 08.23        15VR172   G37  C~8SY2      
2024 11  01.482870 03 55 46.610  +19 48 07.70        15VR172   G37  C~8SY2      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

     1   0.0000      0.00     0.01       0.00    -0.08
     2   0.0003      0.00     0.04       0.00     0.01
     3   0.0006      0.00     0.05       0.00    -0.04
     4   0.0055      0.00    -0.05       0.00     0.04
     5   0.0167      0.00    -0.07       0.00     0.01
     6   0.7319      0.00     0.02       0.00     0.03
     7   0.8031      0.00    -0.27       0.00     0.07
     8   0.8193      0.00     0.03       0.00     0.04
     9   0.8875      0.00     0.10       0.00    -0.04
    10   0.8875      0.00     0.10       0.00    -0.02
    11   0.8903      0.00    -0.03       0.00    -0.05
    12   0.8904      0.00    -0.05       0.00    -0.02
    13   0.9721      0.00     0.13       0.00     0.06
    14   0.9721      0.00     0.15       0.00     0.05
    15   0.9723      0.00     0.04       0.00    -0.00
    16   0.9723      0.00     0.11       0.00     0.00
    17   0.9724      0.00     0.15       0.00     0.10
    18   0.9724      0.00     0.07       0.00     0.04
    19   0.9808      0.00    -0.03       0.00    -0.08
    20   0.9808      0.00    -0.13       0.00    -0.02
    21   0.9996      0.00    -0.03       0.00    -0.00
    22   0.9997      0.00    -0.04       0.00     0.00
    23   1.0516      0.00     0.00       0.00     0.06
    24   1.0516      0.00     0.07       0.00    -0.02
    25   1.0706      0.00    -0.00       0.00    -0.02
    26   1.0708      0.00    -0.03       0.00    -0.00
    27   1.1228      0.00    -0.09       0.00    -0.07
    28   1.1228      0.00    -0.09       0.00    -0.02
    29   1.1390      0.00    -0.02       0.00     0.12
    30   1.2156      0.00     0.13       0.00    -0.08
    31   1.2157      0.00    -0.10       0.00    -0.09
    32   1.2320      0.00    -0.07       0.00    -0.02
    33   1.8051      0.00    -0.04       0.00    -0.03
    34   1.8599      0.00     0.02       0.00     0.03
    35   1.8977      0.00     0.06       0.00    -0.03
    36   1.8978      0.00     0.01       0.00     0.02
    37   1.9612      0.00     0.05       0.00     0.05
    38   1.9637      0.00     0.05       0.00     0.00
    39   2.1027      0.00     0.02       0.00     0.03
    40   2.1028      0.00    -0.00       0.00     0.04
    41   2.1276      0.00     0.01       0.00     0.03
    42   2.1277      0.00     0.02       0.00     0.02
    43   2.1931      0.00    -0.04       0.00     0.01
    44   2.8319      0.00     0.03       0.00     0.03
    45   2.8345      0.00     0.01       0.00     0.01
    46   2.8509      0.00    -0.01       0.00     0.01
    47   2.8509      0.00    -0.04       0.00    -0.04
    48   2.8509      0.00    -0.14       0.00    -0.10
    49   2.8537      0.00    -0.02       0.00     0.07
    50   3.0803      0.00     0.16       0.00     0.02
    51   3.0804      0.00    -0.01       0.00    -0.07
    52   9.9579      0.00    -0.11       0.00     0.05
    53   9.9580      0.00    -0.05       0.00    -0.07
    54   9.9581      0.00     0.14       0.00     0.02

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15VR172    quality flag:3

Type:      CLASSICAL CLASSICAL CLASSICAL

axisobj        45.841    45.841    45.841
ecceobj         0.029     0.029     0.029
incobj          1.591     1.591     1.591
qmin           43.171    43.169    43.168
qmax           48.000    48.010    47.988
amean          45.505    45.505    45.505
amin           45.147    45.146    45.146
amax           45.876    45.870    45.877
emean           0.034     0.034     0.034
emin            0.021     0.021     0.021
emax            0.047     0.047     0.047
imean           0.501     0.501     0.501
imin            0.000     0.000     0.000
imax            0.815     0.814     0.815
excite_mean     0.035     0.035     0.035
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          3.118     3.118     3.118

libcent 0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       166.3     166.1     166.3
kozaiamp        179.9     180.0     180.0