The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15VR172 # Created Sun Apr 27 01:10:43 2025 # Orbit generated by ELGB # -->Covariance matrix from a Bernstein fit # Fitting 54 observations of 54 # Arc: 9.96y # First observation: 2014/11/17 # Last observation: 2024/11/01 # Chi-squared of fit: 7.82 DOF: 102 RMS: 0.07 # Min/Max residuals: -0.27 0.16 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 1.460811E-05 2.043596E-02 7.147943E-07 4.825058E-04 2.220700E-02 -6.803795E-04 # Covariance matrix: 1.3617E-13 -9.0866E-14 2.0089E-15 -1.8357E-15 -1.3677E-14 -3.6829E-13 -9.0866E-14 7.8891E-14 -1.8157E-15 1.6774E-15 6.6090E-15 3.3681E-13 2.0089E-15 -1.8157E-15 4.8665E-14 -1.1137E-14 -5.1493E-16 -8.4080E-15 -1.8357E-15 1.6774E-15 -1.1137E-14 5.8180E-15 2.1990E-16 7.7361E-15 -1.3677E-14 6.6090E-15 -5.1493E-16 2.1990E-16 8.1863E-14 4.0551E-14 -3.6829E-13 3.3681E-13 -8.4080E-15 7.7361E-15 4.0551E-14 1.5529E-12 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 -0.854368 48.900388 -0.095953 -0.014538 -0.984704 2456978.782278 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2456978.5000 = 2014/11/17 Mean Anomaly: 253.68764 +/- 0.066 Argument of Peri: 78.48274 +/- 0.060 Long of Asc Node: 80.69387 +/- 0.004 Inclination: 1.59216 +/- 0.000 Eccentricity: 0.03547845 +/- 0.0001 Semi-Major Axis: 45.50930351 +/- 0.0024 Time of Perihelion: 2490093.8972 +/- 21.5 Perihelion: 43.89470380 +/- 0.0038 Aphelion: 47.12390322 +/- 0.0039 Period (y) 307.0142 +/- 0.02 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X 30.17056754 +/- 0.0004 Ecliptic Y 34.73673788 +/- 0.0004 Ecliptic Z -0.67143563 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic XDOT -0.00195744 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic YDOT 0.00158874 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic ZDOT 0.00006083 +/- 0.0000 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 46.01474717 +/- 0.0004 Geocenter to KBO 45.03089915 +/- 0.0006 # Hcoef: 6.87
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15VR172. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15VR172) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2014 11 17.28150 03 06 45.369 +16 37 15.30 23.2r 15VR172 568 C~2nwE 2014 11 17.39021 03 06 44.870 +16 37 13.44 23.3r 15VR172 568 C~2nwE 2014 11 17.50402 03 06 44.346 +16 37 11.32 23.2r 15VR172 568 C~2nwE 2014 11 19.29385 03 06 36.256 +16 36 39.17 23.4r 15VR172 568 C~2nwE 2014 11 23.39737 03 06 17.848 +16 35 26.13 23.4r 15VR172 568 C~2nwE 2015 08 11.59273 03 15 40.157 +17 15 08.13 23.7w 15VR172 568 C~2nwE 2015 09 06.62350 03 15 36.046 +17 14 31.02 23.7w 15VR172 568 C~2nwE 2015 09 12.51312 03 15 27.174 +17 13 52.06 23.9w 15VR172 568 C~2nwE 2015 10 07.43992 03 14 20.716 +17 09 18.59 23.7w 15VR172 568 C~2nwE 2015 10 07.44703 03 14 20.691 +17 09 18.51 23.8w 15VR172 568 C~2nwE 2015 10 08.45165 03 14 17.151 +17 09 04.28 23.6w 15VR172 568 C~2nwE 2015 10 08.51072 03 14 16.936 +17 09 03.48 23.7w 15VR172 568 C~2nwE 2015 11 07.35377 03 12 12.712 +17 00 51.45 23.4r 15VR172 568 C~2nwE 2015 11 07.35903 03 12 12.689 +17 00 51.34 23.4r 15VR172 568 C~2nwE 2015 11 07.39585 03 12 12.511 +17 00 50.64 23.4r 15VR172 568 C~2nwE 2015 11 07.40112 03 12 12.491 +17 00 50.55 23.4r 15VR172 568 C~2nwE 2015 11 07.43803 03 12 12.323 +17 00 49.99 23.4r 15VR172 568 C~2nwE 2015 11 07.44330 03 12 12.293 +17 00 49.84 23.4r 15VR172 568 C~2nwE 2015 11 10.52298 03 11 58.210 +16 59 54.68 23.6w 15VR172 568 C~2nwE 2015 11 10.52886 03 11 58.176 +16 59 54.63 23.6w 15VR172 568 C~2nwE 2015 11 17.37547 03 11 26.834 +16 57 52.44 23.6w 15VR172 568 C~2nwE 2015 11 17.42215 03 11 26.616 +16 57 51.62 23.7w 15VR172 568 C~2nwE 2015 12 06.37850 03 10 03.334 +16 52 30.64 23.7w 15VR172 568 C~2nwE 2015 12 06.38432 03 10 03.314 +16 52 30.47 15VR172 568 C~2nwE 2015 12 13.31874 03 09 35.751 +16 50 45.82 23.6w 15VR172 568 C~2nwE 2015 12 13.37723 03 09 35.522 +16 50 45.00 23.8w 15VR172 568 C~2nwE 2016 01 01.36607 03 08 33.738 +16 46 56.34 23.7w 15VR172 568 C~2nwE 2016 01 01.37186 03 08 33.722 +16 46 56.33 23.7w 15VR172 568 C~2nwE 2016 01 07.31862 03 08 19.457 +16 46 06.15 23.7w 15VR172 568 C~2nwE 2016 02 04.29505 03 07 52.163 +16 44 53.59 23.7w 15VR172 568 C~2nwE 2016 02 04.30157 03 07 52.149 +16 44 53.60 23.7w 15VR172 568 C~2nwE 2016 02 10.28486 03 07 55.410 +16 45 15.33 23.8w 15VR172 568 C~2nwE 2016 09 06.60560 03 20 14.270 +17 34 00.58 23.8w 15VR172 568 C~2nwE 2016 09 26.59656 03 19 33.555 +17 31 13.66 23.8w 15VR172 568 C~2nwE 2016 10 10.40230 03 18 48.909 +17 28 17.77 23.7w 15VR172 568 C~2nwE 2016 10 10.46065 03 18 48.689 +17 28 17.00 23.6w 15VR172 568 C~2nwE 2016 11 02.59707 03 17 12.878 +17 22 07.31 23.7w 15VR172 568 C~2nwE 2016 11 03.51606 03 17 08.738 +17 21 51.43 23.6w 15VR172 568 C~2nwE 2016 12 24.29598 03 13 34.425 +17 08 29.17 23.7w 15VR172 568 C~2nwE 2016 12 24.31334 03 13 34.366 +17 08 28.98 23.8w 15VR172 568 C~2nwE 2017 01 02.39822 03 13 07.898 +17 06 55.07 23.7w 15VR172 568 C~2nwE 2017 01 02.41556 03 13 07.853 +17 06 54.90 23.7w 15VR172 568 C~2nwE 2017 01 26.32908 03 12 29.263 +17 04 53.43 23.6w 15VR172 568 C~2nwE 2017 09 16.61554 03 24 39.267 +17 52 07.73 15VR172 568 C~2nwE 2017 09 17.60038 03 24 37.310 +17 51 59.90 23.8w 15VR172 568 C~2nwE 2017 09 23.55460 03 24 23.875 +17 51 06.98 15VR172 568 C~2nwE 2017 09 23.57901 03 24 23.811 +17 51 06.69 15VR172 568 C~2nwE 2017 09 23.58734 03 24 23.783 +17 51 06.55 23.9w 15VR172 568 C~2nwE 2017 09 24.59522 03 24 21.248 +17 50 56.80 23.7w 15VR172 568 C~2nwE 2017 12 16.36856 03 18 44.267 +17 30 05.05 23.8w 15VR172 568 C~2nwE 2017 12 16.39181 03 18 44.166 +17 30 04.65 23.8w 15VR172 568 C~2nwE 2024 11 01.387810 03 55 47.014 +19 48 08.96 23.7G 15VR172 G37 C~8SY2 2024 11 01.434810 03 55 46.810 +19 48 08.23 15VR172 G37 C~8SY2 2024 11 01.482870 03 55 46.610 +19 48 07.70 15VR172 G37 C~8SY2
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 0.01 0.00 -0.08
2 0.0003 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.01
3 0.0006 0.00 0.05 0.00 -0.04
4 0.0055 0.00 -0.05 0.00 0.04
5 0.0167 0.00 -0.07 0.00 0.01
6 0.7319 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.03
7 0.8031 0.00 -0.27 0.00 0.07
8 0.8193 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.04
9 0.8875 0.00 0.10 0.00 -0.04
10 0.8875 0.00 0.10 0.00 -0.02
11 0.8903 0.00 -0.03 0.00 -0.05
12 0.8904 0.00 -0.05 0.00 -0.02
13 0.9721 0.00 0.13 0.00 0.06
14 0.9721 0.00 0.15 0.00 0.05
15 0.9723 0.00 0.04 0.00 -0.00
16 0.9723 0.00 0.11 0.00 0.00
17 0.9724 0.00 0.15 0.00 0.10
18 0.9724 0.00 0.07 0.00 0.04
19 0.9808 0.00 -0.03 0.00 -0.08
20 0.9808 0.00 -0.13 0.00 -0.02
21 0.9996 0.00 -0.03 0.00 -0.00
22 0.9997 0.00 -0.04 0.00 0.00
23 1.0516 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06
24 1.0516 0.00 0.07 0.00 -0.02
25 1.0706 0.00 -0.00 0.00 -0.02
26 1.0708 0.00 -0.03 0.00 -0.00
27 1.1228 0.00 -0.09 0.00 -0.07
28 1.1228 0.00 -0.09 0.00 -0.02
29 1.1390 0.00 -0.02 0.00 0.12
30 1.2156 0.00 0.13 0.00 -0.08
31 1.2157 0.00 -0.10 0.00 -0.09
32 1.2320 0.00 -0.07 0.00 -0.02
33 1.8051 0.00 -0.04 0.00 -0.03
34 1.8599 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.03
35 1.8977 0.00 0.06 0.00 -0.03
36 1.8978 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.02
37 1.9612 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.05
38 1.9637 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00
39 2.1027 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.03
40 2.1028 0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.04
41 2.1276 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.03
42 2.1277 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.02
43 2.1931 0.00 -0.04 0.00 0.01
44 2.8319 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.03
45 2.8345 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01
46 2.8509 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.01
47 2.8509 0.00 -0.04 0.00 -0.04
48 2.8509 0.00 -0.14 0.00 -0.10
49 2.8537 0.00 -0.02 0.00 0.07
50 3.0803 0.00 0.16 0.00 0.02
51 3.0804 0.00 -0.01 0.00 -0.07
52 9.9579 0.00 -0.11 0.00 0.05
53 9.9580 0.00 -0.05 0.00 -0.07
54 9.9581 0.00 0.14 0.00 0.02
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15VR172 quality flag:3 Type: CLASSICAL CLASSICAL CLASSICAL axisobj 45.841 45.841 45.841 ecceobj 0.029 0.029 0.029 incobj 1.591 1.591 1.591 qmin 43.171 43.169 43.168 qmax 48.000 48.010 47.988 amean 45.505 45.505 45.505 amin 45.147 45.146 45.146 amax 45.876 45.870 45.877 emean 0.034 0.034 0.034 emin 0.021 0.021 0.021 emax 0.047 0.047 0.047 imean 0.501 0.501 0.501 imin 0.000 0.000 0.000 imax 0.815 0.814 0.815 excite_mean 0.035 0.035 0.035 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 3.118 3.118 3.118 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 166.3 166.1 166.3 kozaiamp 179.9 180.0 180.0