The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15VS166 # Created Fri Nov 22 02:10:33 2024 # Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism # Fitting 46 observations of 46 # Arc: 3.08y # First observation: 2014/11/17 # Last observation: 2017/12/16 Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 0.000052 0.018164 0.000002 0.000804 0.021173 0.000000 # Chi-squared of fit: 9.06 DOF: 86 RMS: 0.08 # Min/Max residuals: -0.16 0.29 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 1.428658E-05 1.834805E-02 4.577698E-07 8.135595E-04 2.133716E-02 1.673549E-03 # Covariance matrix: 2.7796E-13 -2.9734E-13 5.1441E-15 -9.3595E-15 -1.5959E-13 -3.9357E-12 -2.9734E-13 4.2903E-13 -8.9379E-15 1.6369E-14 2.5976E-13 6.8724E-12 5.1441E-15 -8.9379E-15 1.5334E-13 -8.3405E-14 -6.1948E-15 -1.6526E-13 -9.3595E-15 1.6369E-14 -8.3405E-14 5.7810E-14 1.0885E-14 3.0380E-13 -1.5959E-13 2.5976E-13 -6.1948E-15 1.0885E-14 2.5548E-13 4.6164E-12 -3.9357E-12 6.8724E-12 -1.6526E-13 3.0380E-13 4.6164E-12 1.2743E-10 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 -1.041428 47.731384 -0.116289 -0.017711 -0.982457 2456978.797448 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2456970.5000 = 2014/11/09 Mean Anomaly: 131.36026 +/- 0.194 Argument of Peri: 196.61394 +/- 0.190 Long of Asc Node: 69.74190 +/- 0.005 Inclination: 2.73692 +/- 0.001 Eccentricity: 0.13101512 +/- 0.0003 Semi-Major Axis: 43.69241246 +/- 0.0040 Time of Perihelion: 2418478.6356 +/- 56.7 Perihelion: 37.96804600 +/- 0.0152 Aphelion: 49.41677892 +/- 0.0155 Period (y) 288.8133 +/- 0.04 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X 32.08931890 +/- 0.0007 Ecliptic Y 35.48242465 +/- 0.0008 Ecliptic Z -0.85181059 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic XDOT -0.00160077 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic YDOT 0.00173884 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic ZDOT 0.00010057 +/- 0.0000 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 47.84822283 +/- 0.0008 Geocenter to KBO 46.86660000 +/- 0.0011 # Hcoef: 7.34
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15VS166. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15VS166) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2014 11 17.29667 03 02 17.225 +16 07 07.87 24.5r 15VS166 568 C~2lVg 2014 11 17.40560 03 02 16.758 +16 07 05.97 24.1r 15VS166 568 C~2lVg 2014 11 19.31306 03 02 08.422 +16 06 32.51 24.5r 15VS166 568 C~2lVg 2014 11 23.41643 03 01 50.676 +16 05 21.41 24.2r 15VS166 568 C~2lVg 2015 08 11.62323 03 10 40.503 +16 44 50.62 24.5w 15VS166 568 C~2lVg 2015 09 07.53281 03 10 31.162 +16 43 51.76 24.4w 15VS166 568 C~2lVg 2015 09 12.52956 03 10 23.012 +16 43 15.68 24.2w 15VS166 568 C~2lVg 2015 10 07.47166 03 09 16.046 +16 38 34.48 24.0w 15VS166 568 C~2lVg 2015 10 08.47583 03 09 12.565 +16 38 20.11 24.6w 15VS166 568 C~2lVg 2015 10 08.53403 03 09 12.356 +16 38 19.32 24.4w 15VS166 568 C~2lVg 2015 11 06.29151 03 07 15.799 +16 30 28.45 23.8r 15VS166 568 C~2lVg 2015 11 06.35485 03 07 15.527 +16 30 27.30 24.1r 15VS166 568 C~2lVg 2015 11 06.42547 03 07 15.205 +16 30 26.00 24.3r 15VS166 568 C~2lVg 2015 11 06.49480 03 07 14.899 +16 30 24.88 24.1r 15VS166 568 C~2lVg 2015 11 07.51356 03 07 10.387 +16 30 06.85 24.4w 15VS166 568 C~2lVg 2015 11 17.27960 03 06 27.221 +16 27 15.73 24.2w 15VS166 568 C~2lVg 2015 11 17.32888 03 06 27.006 +16 27 14.89 24.2w 15VS166 568 C~2lVg 2015 12 06.40765 03 05 06.527 +16 22 01.22 24.5w 15VS166 568 C~2lVg 2015 12 13.34220 03 04 40.229 +16 20 20.87 24.2w 15VS166 568 C~2lVg 2015 12 13.40075 03 04 40.017 +16 20 20.07 24.3w 15VS166 568 C~2lVg 2016 01 01.39556 03 03 41.426 +16 16 44.05 24.4w 15VS166 568 C~2lVg 2016 01 07.34177 03 03 28.027 +16 15 57.96 24.4w 15VS166 568 C~2lVg 2016 02 04.27190 03 03 03.332 +16 15 03.52 24.4w 15VS166 568 C~2lVg 2016 02 10.26162 03 03 06.747 +16 15 28.32 24.8w 15VS166 568 C~2lVg 2016 09 07.55050 03 14 36.136 +17 02 53.49 15VS166 568 C~2lVg 2016 09 26.61279 03 13 55.456 +17 00 03.39 24.4w 15VS166 568 C~2lVg 2016 10 10.42589 03 13 11.010 +16 57 04.29 24.3w 15VS166 568 C~2lVg 2016 10 10.48430 03 13 10.798 +16 57 03.48 24.6w 15VS166 568 C~2lVg 2016 10 10.50790 03 13 10.712 +16 57 03.15 24.5w 15VS166 568 C~2lVg 2016 10 27.51417 03 12 03.511 +16 52 37.06 24.4w 15VS166 568 C~2lVg 2016 10 27.52577 03 12 03.461 +16 52 36.78 24.5w 15VS166 568 C~2lVg 2016 11 03.53920 03 11 33.195 +16 50 38.38 24.5w 15VS166 568 C~2lVg 2016 11 03.55078 03 11 33.139 +16 50 38.09 20.4w 15VS166 568 C~2lVg 2016 12 28.39306 03 07 56.340 +16 36 57.60 24.8w 15VS166 568 C~2lVg 2016 12 28.40104 03 07 56.306 +16 36 57.52 24.7w 15VS166 568 C~2lVg 2016 12 29.35861 03 07 53.682 +16 36 48.24 24.6w 15VS166 568 C~2lVg 2016 12 29.36878 03 07 53.659 +16 36 48.19 24.8w 15VS166 568 C~2lVg 2017 01 01.25561 03 07 46.141 +16 36 22.03 24.3w 15VS166 568 C~2lVg 2017 01 01.26608 03 07 46.110 +16 36 21.84 24.5w 15VS166 568 C~2lVg 2017 01 02.36563 03 07 43.399 +16 36 12.46 24.5w 15VS166 568 C~2lVg 2017 01 02.37586 03 07 43.368 +16 36 12.33 24.5w 15VS166 568 C~2lVg 2017 01 26.27054 03 07 07.808 +16 34 26.48 24.5w 15VS166 568 C~2lVg 2017 01 26.28489 03 07 07.807 +16 34 26.45 24.6w 15VS166 568 C~2lVg 2017 09 15.60092 03 18 29.072 +17 20 42.94 24.4w 15VS166 568 C~2lVg 2017 09 22.58685 03 18 13.677 +17 19 40.69 24.2w 15VS166 568 C~2lVg 2017 12 16.38250 03 12 42.257 +16 58 39.33 24.5w 15VS166 568 C~2lVg
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 -0.14 0.00 0.03
2 0.0003 -6.99 0.11 0.05 -0.03
3 0.0055 -131.69 -0.01 1.38 0.05
4 0.0168 -397.12 -0.02 4.41 -0.01
5 0.7319 7586.93 -0.07 195.80 -0.02
6 0.8056 7441.68 -0.14 175.13 -0.01
7 0.8193 7319.06 -0.05 171.85 -0.00
8 0.8875 6315.56 -0.13 160.41 0.07
9 0.8903 6263.47 0.00 160.10 -0.00
10 0.8905 6260.36 0.01 160.15 0.04
11 0.9692 4518.54 0.16 161.86 0.10
12 0.9694 4514.46 0.29 161.82 0.01
13 0.9696 4509.65 0.19 161.83 -0.03
14 0.9697 4505.11 0.28 161.95 0.05
15 0.9725 4437.73 -0.04 162.30 -0.01
16 0.9993 3793.44 -0.09 167.29 -0.01
17 0.9994 3790.24 -0.02 167.33 -0.03
18 1.0516 2590.32 0.01 183.45 -0.01
19 1.0706 2198.76 0.02 191.24 0.04
20 1.0708 2195.60 0.09 191.31 0.03
21 1.1228 1325.19 -0.10 216.74 -0.08
22 1.1391 1127.03 -0.07 225.89 -0.01
23 1.2155 770.26 -0.09 272.22 -0.06
24 1.2319 824.39 -0.10 282.39 -0.11
25 1.8077 11142.45 0.00 339.81 -0.02
26 1.8599 10533.10 0.10 329.83 -0.14
27 1.8977 9869.18 -0.03 326.09 -0.00
28 1.8978 9866.02 0.01 326.12 0.01
29 1.8979 9864.74 0.02 326.13 0.02
30 1.9445 8862.23 -0.04 326.29 -0.00
31 1.9445 8861.46 -0.06 326.21 -0.08
32 1.9637 8410.36 -0.07 328.17 0.04
33 1.9637 8409.50 -0.16 328.11 -0.02
34 2.1139 5185.72 0.14 377.71 -0.03
35 2.1139 5185.23 -0.02 377.76 0.01
36 2.1165 5146.39 -0.06 379.08 -0.00
37 2.1166 5146.05 0.03 379.13 0.02
38 2.1245 5034.88 0.04 383.34 0.14
39 2.1245 5034.40 -0.05 383.28 0.06
40 2.1275 4994.33 0.03 384.85 0.02
41 2.1275 4993.86 -0.06 384.85 0.00
42 2.1929 4472.89 -0.06 422.26 0.01
43 2.1930 4472.86 0.03 422.24 -0.04
44 2.8290 14657.56 -0.03 500.40 -0.03
45 2.8482 14427.39 0.01 497.35 0.08
46 3.0803 9495.93 0.08 527.55 -0.04
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15VS166 quality flag:3 Type: 7:4EEE 7:4EEE 7:4EEE axisobj 44.018 44.030 44.005 ecceobj 0.129 0.130 0.128 incobj 2.732 2.732 2.732 qmin 37.236 37.204 37.269 qmax 50.732 50.700 50.676 amean 43.726 43.727 43.726 amin 43.276 43.286 43.290 amax 44.211 44.235 44.229 emean 0.135 0.135 0.134 emin 0.122 0.123 0.121 emax 0.148 0.148 0.146 imean 1.115 1.117 1.080 imin 0.115 0.114 0.020 imax 1.895 1.904 1.816 excite_mean 0.137 0.137 0.136 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 3.076 3.076 3.076 libcent 0 180.7 178.9 179.8 libamp 0 122.2 123.8 127.9 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 120.0 131.0 200.5 kozaiamp 178.9 179.9 176.9