The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15VS172 # Created Tue Apr 1 01:10:42 2025 # Orbit generated by ELGB # -->Covariance matrix from a Bernstein fit # Fitting 34 observations of 34 # Arc: 9.23y # First observation: 2015/08/11 # Last observation: 2024/11/01 # Chi-squared of fit: 6.16 DOF: 62 RMS: 0.08 # Min/Max residuals: -0.14 0.24 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 1.403408E-05 1.849600E-02 2.984369E-09 -1.209191E-04 2.081097E-02 9.606378E-04 # Covariance matrix: 1.8424E-13 -5.4139E-14 3.1867E-16 3.6830E-16 9.2219E-14 -2.5534E-13 -5.4139E-14 9.6945E-14 6.4186E-16 -7.2940E-16 3.0078E-14 5.7236E-13 3.1867E-16 6.4186E-16 6.0409E-14 -1.3148E-14 8.4887E-16 4.2656E-15 3.6830E-16 -7.2940E-16 -1.3148E-14 9.3175E-15 -2.2284E-16 -4.7607E-15 9.2219E-14 3.0078E-14 8.4887E-16 -2.2284E-16 1.1827E-13 2.0905E-13 -2.5534E-13 5.7236E-13 4.2656E-15 -4.7607E-15 2.0905E-13 3.7398E-12 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 -0.450479 51.259770 1.014738 0.000503 0.048468 2457246.073039 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2457246.5000 = 2015/08/12 Mean Anomaly: 142.30792 +/- 0.119 Argument of Peri: 84.06430 +/- 0.119 Long of Asc Node: 180.47207 +/- 0.023 Inclination: 0.59215 +/- 0.000 Eccentricity: 0.04803429 +/- 0.0001 Semi-Major Axis: 46.21685873 +/- 0.0029 Time of Perihelion: 2411881.0078 +/- 38.2 Perihelion: 43.99686489 +/- 0.0038 Aphelion: 48.43685256 +/- 0.0040 Period (y) 314.2019 +/- 0.03 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X 30.82640098 +/- 0.0005 Ecliptic Y 36.80579495 +/- 0.0006 Ecliptic Z -0.37776082 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic XDOT -0.00182100 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic YDOT 0.00161486 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic ZDOT -0.00001684 +/- 0.0000 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 48.01119048 +/- 0.0006 Geocenter to KBO 48.05157019 +/- 0.0008 # Hcoef: 7.45
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15VS172. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15VS172) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2015 08 11.57225 03 15 49.264 +17 38 24.94 24.3w 15VS172 568 C~2nwE 2015 09 06.61892 03 15 44.939 +17 37 51.37 24.1w 15VS172 568 C~2nwE 2015 09 12.50905 03 15 36.291 +17 37 14.11 24.7w 15VS172 568 C~2nwE 2015 10 07.43408 03 14 32.127 +17 32 51.59 24.4w 15VS172 568 C~2nwE 2015 10 08.50488 03 14 28.493 +17 32 36.96 24.4w 15VS172 568 C~2nwE 2015 11 07.35377 03 12 28.807 +17 24 39.22 24.2r 15VS172 568 C~2nwE 2015 11 07.39585 03 12 28.612 +17 24 38.50 24.3r 15VS172 568 C~2nwE 2015 11 07.43803 03 12 28.421 +17 24 37.75 24.1r 15VS172 568 C~2nwE 2015 11 10.52298 03 12 14.837 +17 23 43.89 24.2w 15VS172 568 C~2nwE 2015 11 17.36965 03 11 44.645 +17 21 44.07 24.5w 15VS172 568 C~2nwE 2015 11 17.41626 03 11 44.437 +17 21 43.23 24.3w 15VS172 568 C~2nwE 2015 12 06.37850 03 10 24.164 +17 16 25.91 24.4w 15VS172 568 C~2nwE 2015 12 13.31287 03 09 57.571 +17 14 41.24 24.5w 15VS172 568 C~2nwE 2015 12 13.37141 03 09 57.355 +17 14 40.47 24.4w 15VS172 568 C~2nwE 2016 01 07.31283 03 08 43.785 +17 09 54.34 24.6w 15VS172 568 C~2nwE 2016 02 04.28927 03 08 16.832 +17 08 20.04 24.5w 15VS172 568 C~2nwE 2016 02 10.27908 03 08 19.799 +17 08 35.17 24.4w 15VS172 568 C~2nwE 2016 09 06.61138 03 20 04.216 +17 53 55.89 24.6w 15VS172 568 C~2nwE 2016 09 26.60062 03 19 24.747 +17 51 14.74 24.6w 15VS172 568 C~2nwE 2016 10 10.40808 03 18 41.655 +17 48 24.68 24.4w 15VS172 568 C~2nwE 2016 10 10.46643 03 18 41.446 +17 48 23.85 24.6w 15VS172 568 C~2nwE 2016 10 27.49100 03 17 35.299 +17 44 05.61 24.5w 15VS172 568 C~2nwE 2016 11 02.59707 03 17 09.242 +17 42 24.31 24.7w 15VS172 568 C~2nwE 2016 12 24.31334 03 13 38.994 +17 28 54.13 24.7w 15VS172 568 C~2nwE 2017 01 02.41556 03 13 13.416 +17 27 17.35 24.5w 15VS172 568 C~2nwE 2017 01 26.32908 03 12 35.950 +17 25 01.90 24.6w 15VS172 568 C~2nwE 2017 09 16.61554 03 24 09.812 +18 08 40.11 24.4w 15VS172 568 C~2nwE 2017 09 23.55460 03 23 54.880 +18 07 41.17 24.6w 15VS172 568 C~2nwE 2017 12 13.37637 03 18 39.391 +17 47 44.33 15VS172 568 C~2nwE 2017 12 13.41395 03 18 39.224 +17 47 43.74 24.5w 15VS172 568 C~2nwE 2017 12 16.34929 03 18 28.360 +17 47 03.05 24.5w 15VS172 568 C~2nwE 2017 12 16.36856 03 18 28.286 +17 47 02.97 24.4w 15VS172 568 C~2nwE 2024 11 01.369220 03 52 38.517 +19 41 17.46 24.1G 15VS172 G37 C~8SY2 2024 11 01.416490 03 52 38.316 +19 41 17.03 15VS172 G37 C~8SY2
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 0.01 0.00 -0.02
2 0.0713 0.00 0.18 0.00 0.19
3 0.0874 0.00 -0.08 0.00 0.01
4 0.1557 0.00 -0.02 0.00 0.01
5 0.1586 0.00 -0.01 0.00 -0.02
6 0.2403 0.00 0.13 0.00 0.07
7 0.2404 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.07
8 0.2406 0.00 -0.02 0.00 0.06
9 0.2490 0.00 -0.09 0.00 0.09
10 0.2678 0.00 -0.07 0.00 0.04
11 0.2679 0.00 -0.06 0.00 0.01
12 0.3198 0.00 0.11 0.00 0.03
13 0.3388 0.00 -0.03 0.00 -0.03
14 0.3389 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.05
15 0.4072 0.00 0.01 0.00 -0.03
16 0.4838 0.00 -0.07 0.00 0.01
17 0.5002 0.00 -0.04 0.00 -0.05
18 1.0733 0.00 -0.08 0.00 -0.06
19 1.1281 0.00 0.12 0.00 -0.14
20 1.1659 0.00 -0.05 0.00 -0.01
21 1.1660 0.00 -0.05 0.00 -0.04
22 1.2126 0.00 0.02 0.00 -0.03
23 1.2294 0.00 0.08 0.00 -0.09
24 1.3710 0.00 0.05 0.00 -0.06
25 1.3959 0.00 0.05 0.00 -0.14
26 1.4613 0.00 -0.03 0.00 -0.03
27 2.1001 0.00 -0.01 0.00 -0.08
28 2.1190 0.00 -0.05 0.00 0.04
29 2.3403 0.00 0.24 0.00 0.07
30 2.3404 0.00 -0.10 0.00 0.02
31 2.3485 0.00 0.02 0.00 -0.05
32 2.3485 0.00 -0.02 0.00 0.13
33 9.2260 0.00 -0.01 0.00 -0.07
34 9.2261 0.00 -0.02 0.00 0.11
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15VS172 quality flag:3 Type: CLASSICAL CLASSICAL CLASSICAL axisobj 46.660 46.660 46.660 ecceobj 0.044 0.044 0.044 incobj 0.589 0.589 0.589 qmin 43.481 43.467 43.480 qmax 49.399 49.386 49.408 amean 46.322 46.322 46.322 amin 45.955 45.963 45.948 amax 46.708 46.706 46.707 emean 0.045 0.045 0.045 emin 0.034 0.034 0.033 emax 0.058 0.058 0.058 imean 1.736 1.736 1.736 imin 1.373 1.373 1.373 imax 2.065 2.064 2.065 excite_mean 0.055 0.055 0.055 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 3.127 3.127 3.127 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 175.2 175.2 175.2 kozaiamp 179.9 180.0 180.0