The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15VU172 # Created Tue Apr 1 01:10:42 2025 # Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism # Fitting 40 observations of 40 # Arc: 2.85y # First observation: 2014/11/17 # Last observation: 2017/09/24 Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: -0.000039 0.026701 -0.000001 0.000606 0.026228 0.000000 # Chi-squared of fit: 8.36 DOF: 74 RMS: 0.08 # Min/Max residuals: -0.39 0.16 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 1.638808E-05 2.684311E-02 1.028930E-06 6.105981E-04 2.639870E-02 -7.003766E-05 # Covariance matrix: 2.4853E-13 -2.8318E-13 2.3914E-15 -4.4249E-15 -1.0793E-13 -2.4218E-12 -2.8318E-13 4.3390E-13 -4.3331E-15 8.0087E-15 1.9678E-13 4.3842E-12 2.3914E-15 -4.3331E-15 1.3468E-13 -7.7187E-14 -2.7368E-15 -5.1596E-14 -4.4249E-15 8.0087E-15 -7.7187E-14 6.1179E-14 4.3973E-15 9.4408E-14 -1.0793E-13 1.9678E-13 -2.7368E-15 4.3973E-15 2.1605E-13 2.4757E-12 -2.4218E-12 4.3842E-12 -5.1596E-14 9.4408E-14 2.4757E-12 5.1781E-11 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 -0.932810 47.511546 -0.120058 -0.015841 -0.982035 2456978.797448 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2456970.5000 = 2014/11/09 Mean Anomaly: 354.50530 +/- 0.819 Argument of Peri: 330.81816 +/- 0.850 Long of Asc Node: 82.53144 +/- 0.010 Inclination: 1.59134 +/- 0.000 Eccentricity: 0.01833396 +/- 0.0000 Semi-Major Axis: 39.58421031 +/- 0.0022 Time of Perihelion: 2458358.9273 +/- 206.9 Perihelion: 38.85847482 +/- 0.0029 Aphelion: 40.30994579 +/- 0.0029 Period (y) 249.0527 +/- 0.02 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X 26.15452895 +/- 0.0004 Ecliptic Y 28.73685995 +/- 0.0005 Ecliptic Z -0.61666961 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic XDOT -0.00206140 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic YDOT 0.00187083 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic ZDOT 0.00006354 +/- 0.0000 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 38.86189375 +/- 0.0005 Geocenter to KBO 37.88065640 +/- 0.0007 # Hcoef: 8.35
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15VU172. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15VU172) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2014 11 17.29667 03 01 16.915 +16 09 42.49 23.7r 15VU172 568 C~2nwE 2014 11 17.40560 03 01 16.336 +16 09 40.33 24.2r 15VU172 568 C~2nwE 2014 11 17.51968 03 01 15.732 +16 09 37.89 24.6r 15VU172 568 C~2nwE 2014 11 19.31306 03 01 06.346 +16 08 59.49 24.0r 15VU172 568 C~2nwE 2014 11 23.41643 03 00 45.078 +16 07 32.91 24.4r 15VU172 568 C~2nwE 2015 08 11.59273 03 12 21.139 +16 57 54.27 24.8w 15VU172 568 C~2nwE 2015 09 06.62350 03 12 16.512 +16 57 08.65 24.5w 15VU172 568 C~2nwE 2015 09 12.51312 03 12 06.082 +16 56 21.67 24.4w 15VU172 568 C~2nwE 2015 10 07.43992 03 10 48.079 +16 50 53.25 24.6w 15VU172 568 C~2nwE 2015 10 07.44703 03 10 48.042 +16 50 53.20 24.8w 15VU172 568 C~2nwE 2015 10 08.45165 03 10 43.895 +16 50 36.22 24.7w 15VU172 568 C~2nwE 2015 10 08.51072 03 10 43.649 +16 50 35.25 24.9w 15VU172 568 C~2nwE 2015 11 07.35903 03 08 18.310 +16 40 47.48 24.5r 15VU172 568 C~2nwE 2015 11 07.40112 03 08 18.082 +16 40 46.65 24.1r 15VU172 568 C~2nwE 2015 11 07.44330 03 08 17.861 +16 40 45.72 23.9r 15VU172 568 C~2nwE 2015 11 10.52886 03 08 01.435 +16 39 40.24 23.7w 15VU172 568 C~2nwE 2015 11 17.27378 03 07 25.544 +16 37 17.31 23.4w 15VU172 568 C~2nwE 2015 11 17.32308 03 07 25.270 +16 37 16.33 24.3w 15VU172 568 C~2nwE 2015 12 06.40182 03 05 48.390 +16 30 56.08 24.8w 15VU172 568 C~2nwE 2015 12 13.33636 03 05 16.846 +16 28 54.13 24.2w 15VU172 568 C~2nwE 2015 12 13.39494 03 05 16.583 +16 28 53.06 24.7w 15VU172 568 C~2nwE 2016 01 01.38920 03 04 06.850 +16 24 31.94 24.8w 15VU172 568 C~2nwE 2016 01 02.35555 03 04 04.084 +16 24 21.89 24.2w 15VU172 568 C~2nwE 2016 01 07.33598 03 03 51.153 +16 23 36.28 24.1w 15VU172 568 C~2nwE 2016 02 03.22261 03 03 24.245 +16 22 31.98 24.3w 15VU172 568 C~2nwE 2016 02 03.22917 03 03 24.228 +16 22 31.91 24.3w 15VU172 568 C~2nwE 2016 02 04.26610 03 03 24.742 +16 22 35.92 24.4w 15VU172 568 C~2nwE 2016 02 10.25584 03 03 29.827 +16 23 07.84 24.4w 15VU172 568 C~2nwE 2016 09 06.60560 03 18 19.674 +17 22 54.15 24.7w 15VU172 568 C~2nwE 2016 09 26.59656 03 17 32.482 +17 19 37.03 24.4w 15VU172 568 C~2nwE 2016 10 27.49100 03 15 19.923 +17 10 53.24 24.5w 15VU172 568 C~2nwE 2016 11 02.59707 03 14 48.309 +17 08 50.55 24.5w 15VU172 568 C~2nwE 2016 11 03.51606 03 14 43.487 +17 08 31.83 24.7w 15VU172 568 C~2nwE 2016 12 24.29598 03 10 35.638 +16 52 53.22 25.0w 15VU172 568 C~2nwE 2017 01 02.39822 03 10 05.674 +16 51 06.66 24.5w 15VU172 568 C~2nwE 2017 01 26.28489 03 09 24.077 +16 48 58.97 24.3w 15VU172 568 C~2nwE 2017 09 17.60038 03 24 05.719 +17 46 40.58 24.6w 15VU172 568 C~2nwE 2017 09 23.55460 03 23 50.291 +17 45 39.24 15VU172 568 C~2nwE 2017 09 23.57901 03 23 50.228 +17 45 38.75 24.5w 15VU172 568 C~2nwE 2017 09 24.59522 03 23 47.282 +17 45 27.29 24.4w 15VU172 568 C~2nwE
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 -0.06 0.00 -0.14
2 0.0003 -8.61 0.03 0.26 0.01
3 0.0006 -17.65 0.10 0.35 0.01
4 0.0055 -158.22 -0.03 1.33 -0.00
5 0.0168 -476.66 -0.01 4.07 -0.05
6 0.7318 9984.27 -0.07 173.21 -0.01
7 0.8031 9907.95 -0.09 146.90 0.03
8 0.8192 9750.83 -0.07 141.53 -0.02
9 0.8875 8581.91 0.11 124.63 -0.10
10 0.8875 8581.39 0.02 124.72 -0.00
11 0.8902 8519.37 -0.04 124.35 0.06
12 0.8904 8515.70 0.04 124.36 0.07
13 0.9721 6344.24 -0.03 121.87 0.04
14 0.9722 6340.86 -0.03 121.96 0.10
15 0.9723 6337.55 0.06 121.93 0.04
16 0.9808 6092.38 0.09 123.01 0.07
17 0.9993 5556.71 0.16 125.82 -0.10
18 0.9994 5552.65 0.05 125.95 -0.02
19 1.0516 4108.09 -0.02 141.04 0.13
20 1.0706 3638.20 0.09 148.40 -0.02
21 1.0708 3634.27 0.03 148.42 -0.09
22 1.1228 2597.72 0.04 174.01 0.05
23 1.1254 2556.68 0.05 175.35 -0.06
24 1.1391 2365.23 0.06 182.99 -0.13
25 1.2127 1975.29 -0.10 228.46 0.06
26 1.2127 1975.04 -0.39 228.46 0.05
27 1.2155 1983.26 0.03 230.26 0.04
28 1.2319 2062.43 -0.07 240.65 0.04
29 1.8051 15356.55 -0.02 270.49 0.04
30 1.8598 14649.16 -0.08 255.42 -0.01
31 1.9444 12670.71 0.05 246.16 -0.02
32 1.9611 12199.60 -0.06 247.00 0.08
33 1.9636 12127.74 0.03 247.15 0.05
34 2.1027 8441.86 0.11 288.28 -0.11
35 2.1276 7998.22 0.08 301.31 0.03
36 2.1930 7387.84 -0.03 339.40 -0.02
37 2.8345 20544.26 0.05 386.68 0.03
38 2.8508 20313.29 -0.11 382.78 0.07
39 2.8509 20312.28 -0.04 382.53 -0.17
40 2.8537 20268.25 0.09 382.04 -0.04
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15VU172 quality flag:3 Type: CLASSICAL CLASSICAL CLASSICAL axisobj 39.873 39.879 39.866 ecceobj 0.025 0.025 0.025 incobj 1.590 1.591 1.590 qmin 37.122 37.070 37.401 qmax 42.271 42.290 42.004 amean 39.578 39.582 39.574 amin 39.227 39.210 39.240 amax 39.913 39.919 39.903 emean 0.020 0.021 0.017 emin 0.000 0.000 0.000 emax 0.061 0.062 0.054 imean 7.976 8.048 7.888 imin 0.688 0.688 0.688 imax 12.801 13.108 12.477 excite_mean 0.141 0.142 0.139 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 3.024 3.024 3.025 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 179.8 177.7 180.3 kozaiamp 180.0 179.9 180.0