Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15VW168

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15VW168   
# Created Tue Apr  1 01:10:40 2025
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting     45 observations of     45
# Arc:   3.08y
# First observation: 2014/11/17
#  Last observation: 2017/12/16
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
   0.000013   0.022343   0.000000   0.000492   0.023551   0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit:     5.11 DOF:     84 RMS:  0.06
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.15    0.14
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.436869E-05  2.252312E-02  9.026161E-07  4.964908E-04  2.370039E-02  8.334723E-04
# Covariance matrix:
  2.3897E-13 -2.5878E-13  2.5043E-15 -4.3057E-15 -1.2828E-13 -2.8029E-12
 -2.5878E-13  3.9569E-13 -4.5960E-15  8.0631E-15  2.1972E-13  5.2201E-12
  2.5043E-15 -4.5960E-15  1.3645E-13 -7.1486E-14 -3.0550E-15 -6.8948E-14
 -4.3057E-15  8.0631E-15 -7.1486E-14  4.9518E-14  4.6642E-15  1.2255E-13
 -1.2828E-13  2.1972E-13 -3.0550E-15  4.6642E-15  2.1392E-13  3.1411E-12
 -2.8029E-12  5.2201E-12 -6.8948E-14  1.2255E-13  3.1411E-12  7.9062E-11
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
   -1.522692   46.964688   -0.129339   -0.025920   -0.980642  2456978.792408
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2456970.5000  =  2014/11/09
Mean Anomaly:          103.95989 +/-     0.198
Argument of Peri:      202.07520 +/-     0.194
Long of Asc Node:       96.76882 +/-     0.012
Inclination:             1.95293 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.03908429 +/-    0.0004
Semi-Major Axis:     42.70918796 +/-    0.0023
Time of Perihelion: 2427530.0999 +/-      55.9
Perihelion:          41.03992958 +/-    0.0159
Aphelion:            44.37844635 +/-    0.0159
Period (y)              279.1195 +/-      0.02
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X           29.35650639 +/-    0.0006
Ecliptic Y           31.63646382 +/-    0.0006
Ecliptic Z           -1.12117596 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00183933 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT         0.00184213 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT         0.00005488 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   43.17322487 +/-    0.0006
Geocenter to KBO     42.19339516 +/-    0.0008
# Hcoef:  8.04

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15VW168. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15VW168) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2014 11  17.29163  02 59 47.324  +15 26 31.84  24.8r 15VW168   568  C~2nvz      
2014 11  17.40051  02 59 46.780  +15 26 29.84  24.2r 15VW168   568  C~2nvz      
2014 11  17.51464  02 59 46.240  +15 26 27.58  23.9r 15VW168   568  C~2nvz      
2014 11  19.30670  02 59 37.763  +15 25 52.73  24.2r 15VW168   568  C~2nvz      
2014 11  23.41007  02 59 18.530  +15 24 34.42  24.3r 15VW168   568  C~2nvz      
2015 08  11.62323  03 09 28.862  +16 10 05.33  24.6w 15VW168   568  C~2nvz      
2015 09  07.53281  03 09 20.069  +16 08 41.16  24.9w 15VW168   568  C~2nvz      
2015 09  12.52956  03 09 11.351  +16 07 57.76  24.6w 15VW168   568  C~2nvz      
2015 10  07.47166  03 07 58.809  +16 02 30.93  24.4w 15VW168   568  C~2nvz      
2015 10  08.47583  03 07 55.009  +16 02 14.62  24.5w 15VW168   568  C~2nvz      
2015 10  08.53403  03 07 54.784  +16 02 13.55  24.7w 15VW168   568  C~2nvz      
2015 11  06.29151  03 05 47.829  +15 53 22.13  24.3r 15VW168   568  C~2nvz      
2015 11  06.35485  03 05 47.528  +15 53 20.87  24.2r 15VW168   568  C~2nvz      
2015 11  06.42547  03 05 47.168  +15 53 19.46  24.2r 15VW168   568  C~2nvz      
2015 11  06.49480  03 05 46.844  +15 53 18.13  24.1r 15VW168   568  C~2nvz      
2015 11  17.27960  03 04 54.983  +15 49 48.05  24.5w 15VW168   568  C~2nvz      
2015 11  17.32888  03 04 54.746  +15 49 47.16  24.3w 15VW168   568  C~2nvz      
2015 12  06.40765  03 03 27.446  +15 44 03.34  24.5w 15VW168   568  C~2nvz      
2015 12  13.34220  03 02 59.070  +15 42 14.94  24.6w 15VW168   568  C~2nvz      
2015 12  13.40075  03 02 58.822  +15 42 14.05  24.6w 15VW168   568  C~2nvz      
2016 01  01.39556  03 01 56.138  +15 38 26.55  24.4w 15VW168   568  C~2nvz      
2016 01  07.34177  03 01 42.021  +15 37 40.26  24.4w 15VW168   568  C~2nvz      
2016 02  04.27190  03 01 18.170  +15 37 07.00  25.2w 15VW168   568  C~2nvz      
2016 02  10.26162  03 01 22.693  +15 37 40.84  24.7w 15VW168   568  C~2nvz      
2016 09  07.55050  03 14 22.453  +16 30 33.99        15VW168   568  C~2nvz      
2016 09  26.61279  03 13 38.907  +16 27 14.81  24.7w 15VW168   568  C~2nvz      
2016 10  10.42589  03 12 50.774  +16 23 49.85  24.6w 15VW168   568  C~2nvz      
2016 10  10.48430  03 12 50.536  +16 23 48.90  24.7w 15VW168   568  C~2nvz      
2016 10  10.50790  03 12 50.444  +16 23 48.52  24.6w 15VW168   568  C~2nvz      
2016 10  27.51417  03 11 37.333  +16 18 48.55  24.8w 15VW168   568  C~2nvz      
2016 11  03.53920  03 11 04.301  +16 16 35.80  24.4w 15VW168   568  C~2nvz      
2016 12  28.39306  03 07 08.838  +16 01 42.24  25.3w 15VW168   568  C~2nvz      
2016 12  28.40104  03 07 08.816  +16 01 42.18  25.1w 15VW168   568  C~2nvz      
2016 12  29.35861  03 07 06.018  +16 01 32.55  24.8w 15VW168   568  C~2nvz      
2016 12  29.36878  03 07 05.981  +16 01 32.42  24.9w 15VW168   568  C~2nvz      
2017 01  01.25561  03 06 57.942  +16 01 05.35  24.3w 15VW168   568  C~2nvz      
2017 01  01.26608  03 06 57.911  +16 01 05.38  24.6w 15VW168   568  C~2nvz      
2017 01  02.36563  03 06 55.009  +16 00 55.75  24.7w 15VW168   568  C~2nvz      
2017 01  02.37586  03 06 54.986  +16 00 55.62  24.5w 15VW168   568  C~2nvz      
2017 01  26.26424  03 06 18.050  +15 59 18.81  24.6w 15VW168   568  C~2nvz      
2017 01  26.27054  03 06 18.040  +15 59 18.87  24.6w 15VW168   568  C~2nvz      
2017 09  15.60092  03 19 12.750  +16 50 57.93  24.6w 15VW168   568  C~2nvz      
2017 09  22.58685  03 18 56.371  +16 49 45.51  24.5w 15VW168   568  C~2nvz      
2017 12  16.38250  03 12 55.998  +16 26 26.14  24.5w 15VW168   568  C~2nvz      
2017 12  16.38715  03 12 55.990  +16 26 26.17  24.6w 15VW168   568  C~2nvz      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

     1   0.0000      0.00     0.14       0.00    -0.12
     2   0.0003     -8.11    -0.08       0.30     0.07
     3   0.0006    -16.24     0.07       0.33     0.00
     4   0.0055   -143.66    -0.00       1.42    -0.02
     5   0.0168   -432.57    -0.04       4.71     0.06
     6   0.7319   8793.83     0.11     194.26     0.06
     7   0.8056   8648.83    -0.09     147.48     0.00
     8   0.8193   8515.93     0.03     139.71     0.00
     9   0.8876   7419.31    -0.03     109.10    -0.04
    10   0.8903   7362.08    -0.04     108.32     0.05
    11   0.8905   7358.66    -0.05     108.18    -0.06
    12   0.9692   5450.39    -0.01      97.97     0.06
    13   0.9694   5445.86     0.08      97.95     0.00
    14   0.9696   5440.48    -0.15      98.02     0.03
    15   0.9698   5435.61     0.06      98.03     0.01
    16   0.9993   4657.92    -0.05     102.11    -0.04
    17   0.9994   4654.39    -0.01     102.20    -0.00
    18   1.0517   3347.82    -0.06     120.44     0.09
    19   1.0706   2924.01     0.10     130.11     0.02
    20   1.0708   2920.33    -0.10     130.25     0.05
    21   1.1228   1987.35    -0.03     164.00    -0.14
    22   1.1391   1778.60    -0.02     176.52    -0.02
    23   1.2156   1438.48     0.03     240.96    -0.03
    24   1.2320   1510.69     0.07     255.16    -0.08
    25   1.8077  13207.19    -0.02     247.08     0.00
    26   1.8599  12547.88     0.02     221.07     0.03
    27   1.8977  11823.26     0.08     207.76    -0.04
    28   1.8979  11819.70     0.00     207.75    -0.02
    29   1.8979  11818.31     0.04     207.74    -0.03
    30   1.9445  10720.86     0.12     199.95     0.01
    31   1.9637  10225.83     0.06     199.68    -0.05
    32   2.1139   6712.12    -0.10     258.85     0.05
    33   2.1139   6711.79    -0.07     258.88     0.06
    34   2.1165   6670.32     0.09     260.64    -0.02
    35   2.1166   6669.77    -0.02     260.66    -0.02
    36   2.1245   6550.76    -0.00     266.31    -0.04
    37   2.1245   6550.34    -0.00     266.46     0.09
    38   2.1275   6507.42    -0.05     268.64     0.03
    39   2.1275   6507.06    -0.00     268.61    -0.03
    40   2.1929   5967.85     0.05     321.37     0.00
    41   2.1930   5967.72    -0.03     321.47     0.08
    42   2.8290  17577.74    -0.08     336.51    -0.01
    43   2.8482  17330.10    -0.05     327.44     0.02
    44   3.0803  11937.75    -0.04     338.58    -0.05
    45   3.0803  11937.64     0.13     338.64     0.00

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15VW168    quality flag:3

Type:      CLASSICAL CLASSICAL CLASSICAL

axisobj        43.038    43.045    43.030
ecceobj         0.042     0.043     0.042
incobj          1.953     1.953     1.953
qmin           40.134    40.112    40.133
qmax           45.568    45.557    45.471
amean          42.726    42.733    42.719
amin           42.396    42.406    42.385
amax           43.062    43.074    43.062
emean           0.040     0.040     0.039
emin            0.014     0.016     0.014
emax            0.058     0.058     0.057
imean           1.251     1.250     1.253
imin            0.117     0.115     0.117
imax            2.121     2.120     2.126
excite_mean     0.047     0.047     0.046
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          3.084     3.084     3.084

libcent 0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       182.6     182.4     182.8
kozaiamp        180.0     179.9     180.0